rootclaim - Estimating the Probability of Conspiracy vs. LHO Acted Alone

[Bill Fite]

The probability that LHO acted alone is demonstrably zero. Evidence has established that shots were fired from more than one direction. That alone rules out any "lone nut", LHO or anyone else. The probability that two or more "lone nuts" acting completely independently of each other and without any knowledge of each other is effectively zero (allowing for the impossibility of definitively proving a negative).

Thus, the probability of a conspiracy is one. No fancy math or crowd sourcing required.

Then that would be demonstrated by assessing evidence and adjusting probabilities.

Myself, I believe the Neutron Activation Analysis on the paraffin test on his cheek and the FBI test that failed to discredit NAA essentially clears him of shooting a rifle. But I am curious as to how that or any other piece of evidence affects the probabilities.

There are other hypotheses that could be estimated:

-- What was LHO's role in the assassination:

1) Member of the conspiracy
2) Government operative that infiltrated the conspiracy and was set up as a patsy
3) No role - he was just a convenient defector who was framed

but even in this case, it might be necessary to have the 4th possibility -- LHO acted alone -- and let the evidence estimate its probability as 0.