The Battle for Novorussiya

[Magda Hassan]

Googlish translation of a Russian report, like many others, saying Poroshenko's wife and children have left the Ukraine. I have no idea as to the veracity of this information but interesting.

Poroshenko repeat the fate of Gaddafi, or have time to escape to Rostov? The blogosphere today

16.02.2015 00:40

President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko. Illustration: president.gov.ua
As we predicted in the previous article, Minsk agreement Poroshenko go sideways in Kiev brewing revolution, Russia and the European Union - not in the business, white and fluffy, making a surprised face, and only the United States, sinking more and more into the furnace Ukrainian swamp, menacingly frowning on his forehead, do not want to do the right conclusions and are increasingly losing face.
Less than a day after the signing of the agreements Minsk-2 as Kiev disown directly from two key provisions of the Minsk agreements. "On Friday, February 13, at the session of the Verkhovna Rada appeared Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin and immediately caught in the crossfire PR aces Rada headed by Ljashko. Under their pressure Klimkin said that amnesty will not apply to "separatist leaders responsible for crimes against humanity." Further more, Klimkin said that Ukraine is not committed itself to amend the Constitution .
Such a sharp distancing from Minsk summit, the very next day after its completion, shows one thing: Klimkin or washed down the bitter with Poroshenko and does not understand how a document signature to his boss, or Kiev makes it clear that is not going to perform in Minsk agreement. But in the final documents of each item is linked to another: can not be restored control over the border in Ukraine, if there is no amnesty law on the special status of Donbass and constitutional reform. It seems Poroshenko started playing dirty and is already preparing for dying positions in order to avoid the assumed
Also less than a day after Minsk-2, as the United States announced that they in a coffin seen the agreement and retain the right to continue to be imposed on the Russian unilateral sanctions without the EU and Britain, as well as to supply weapons. This was not a surprise to anyone. On the contrary, after Minsk-2 will be very good if the US and further stress on their own, will bury its image chosen power-peacemaker. Especially if in Kiev will another coup and come to power frank Nazis. The supply of arms legitimate authority - is one thing, but the supply of weapons to terrorist operatives - is quite another.
This is a very good development. Especially when you sign an agreement to supply with Poroshenko and acceptance will be carried out militants "Right sector." Impeachment Obama guaranteed, then coming to power in the United States of any African Americans, Latinos, etc. will be permanently closed. Therefore, we will not interfere with the Americans to dig ourselves a big hole. It is better to stand up there and cheer the boys.
Meanwhile, Russia and the EU are guided by the logic of the well-known proverb: "made a deal - walk safely." We are together with the Europeans keep proud silence, as if what is happening does not concern us. Nevertheless, we continue to observe. And the course of events can not but rejoice. Trolling Lavrov during Minsk talks had only one destination - our "partners" in Washington. It is addressed to them - "everything is going better than super" - angry hedgehogs in Washington, injected, but continued to eat a cactus. This trolling continues in the form of deep satisfaction the Russian side the spirit and letter of the signed agreements. On the Cowboys from politics to answer nothing, except arms supplies. By the way, a good idea to get US combat tanks as targets for development of advanced Russian anti-tank weapons.
Against this background, the situation in Kiev continues to swell "spring buds" another coup. According to Yuri of Sumy, "at this time in Kiev sides are preparing for battle (the anniversary of the coup). For Poroshenko is crucial to this point not to lose Debaltseve and thereby keep the situation in the capital under its control. I was told that Sumy VVshniki ready early next week on a business trip to Kiev ... " (http://yurasumy.livejournal.com/397576.html). Two more eloquent detail about the mood in Kiev adds a famous blogger da DZI: "I said yesterday:" In Kiev, February 22 will be the coup attempt. All bands like Antivoyny Shilova samoslivayutsya. Natsik Kolomoyshey to take away power. Infa from our man enough informed. We wish Natsik luck). Just got a call from Kiev: "Wife Poroshenko with children flew from Kiev" " (http://da-dzi.livejournal.com/333358.html).
The situation around Debaltseve continues to swell, and Poroshenko harder to pretend that there is no boiler. So, today, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Klimkin acknowledged that representatives of official Kiev could not get into Debaltseve, ie the boiler is. Zaharchenko reinforced the position of New Russia "hinterland DNR are not subject to discussion and will be trimmed of criminals with guns."
For the main outcome of the Minsk-2 - cessation of civil war, neither of which its termination is not the question: "Judging by the statements of the morning of the Ukrainian side to present them under Debaltseve except for the night application Poroshenko nothing. Loss inside the boiler and on the outskirts of yesterday are huge (probably the greatest fights of all time), and hundreds of people. Accurate count on now for the media may not be possible. Under Shirokino still is fighting (very powerful). As of the morning VSN controlled village. On the eve of a pretty intense battle was fought .
According to the statements "Azov" they lost only 50 people wounded. Believe in 3 killed, I will not. Knowing the ratio in this war we can assume that their 15-20 people. The rest of the fights or stopped or almost stopped (rare skirmishes). Total. Parties shall endeavor to maintain the appearance of the world, although it now NO. But one need to get a loan and they do a good face on a bad game, and the other should give respite to their cities (so far Ukrainian artillery shelling does not risk the peace of the city) and regroup (the same artillery from under Debaltseve) " (http: // yurasumy. livejournal.com/398793.html).
Ie Poroshenko in there is a maximum of one week to take something that will keep the country from another coup. If the situation is under Debaltseve not resolve, and, most likely, it will not go away, then there is a strong likelihood that the February 22-23 in Kiev will be some events. As a minimum, the final bundle clans junta into opposing parts with varying degrees of conflict escalation, as a maximum - the demolition attempt Poroshenko under the slogans of betrayal of ideals of the Maidan, and other violations of the Constitution. In this regard, the frequency of foreign visits last month Poroshenko gets only one meaning - he enlists the help of the European leaders in the event of a coup.
If all was well, like last year, he would have made only one visit - in Washington. The rest would have given the command to take the salute. But in Washington, Poroshenko has nothing to look. Dissatisfaction with them obviously. Therefore, he rushes to European capitals to in the new European trend to fix their legitimacy. Suppose, it is very possible and in exile, not accidentally sent his wife and children from Kiev. In this context, can get very interesting situation - the real power in Ukraine will be at the Nazis, one legitimate president will be in Russia, and the second - in Europe.
What Poroshenko aware of the precariousness of his position in Kiev without armed forces, directly subordinate to him, and say the other day disclosed details of the talks in Minsk, - or rather, the behavior Poroshenko in Minsk: "Poroshenko led his game with the leaders of" Norman Quartet. " Now it is clear why the talks lasted 16 hours. Initially with Poroshenko agreed version of the document is already in Minsk it was rejected. They wrote NEW! Three adults how to scratch again began to persuade another adult who do not understand what he wanted. In fact, they did the dirty work that seemingly made for them diplomats, including assistants Poroshenko. The fear that in Kiev any agreement with the leaders of the DNI and the LC be seen as a defeat, and the Americans accused him of being too diplomatic, so influenced the psyche of hard drinking president that he several times during the night trying to increase the degree of aggressiveness of their own army.
Realizing that February 15 will have to cease fire, Poroshenko tried as far as possible to squeeze troops deep into the republics of New Russia. History terrible: the president of Ukraine in talks devoted to finding a peaceful solution to the conflict, leaving hysteria in the phone and demanded that the General Staff immediately before the end of the negotiations unlock Debaltsevsky boiler. Disruption on the mat, he shouted that he had already told the leaders of the "quartet", if no boiler no. Naturally, because he did his best to present EU leaders Debaltseve as cunning intrigues Putin. When the Chief of Staff to the President and objected timidly said that Debaltseve thrown all forces, and it is not possible to organize a breakthrough caught in the boiler Ukrainian soldiers Poroshenko literally stamped his feet and yelled obscenities into the phone: "Down Lugansk ! Counteroffensive at Mariupol! Bomb! Run all the artillery, all that you have on hand and distract attention from the militants Debaltseve! »(Http://da-dzi.livejournal.com/332436.html).
This information is confirmed by other sources, "Psychosis Poroshenko at the Minsk meeting explained simply - the fear to receive a fatal blow from his friends and rivals - Turchinov, Yatsenyuk and other klyatyh friends who were willing to use any oversight of the president. They even made a draft law to parliament on the impeachment in the midst of negotiations " An important caveat - that the law of impeachment was introduced and Yatsenyuk Turchynov just in the course of negotiations. This kind of last warning - a black mark on the Americans.

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Thus, the time for Poroshenko is rapidly declining. However, the removal of Poroshenko power through a coup - not a solution. And Kolomoysky, and Yatsenyuk Turchynov to understand this very well. Therefore, they have only two options - either physically remove Poroshenko and accused Moscow of his death, or hold impeachment proceedings, which are not well spelled out in the Ukrainian legislation. There's no time, so the second option, especially given the fact that poroshenkovskaya part of the "coalition" together with the Regionals will block any attempt to safely hold this decision through parliament, even unlikely. Therefore, the most likely is the first version of sad. Accordingly, Poroshenko left two options of escape - in Europe (Warsaw, Berlin, Brussels) or in Rostov to Yanukovych. Only one question - will have time Poroshenko take a plane ticket?
Yuri Ram - chief editor of the analytical version of a REGNUM