The Battle for Novorussiya

[Lauren Johnson]

From official Russian sources from South Front:

Russia said that it would be senseless to hold Normandy four format talks while Ukraine ignores enforcing the law on the special status of the region of Donbass and refuses to withdraw its forces, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin said.
Earlier, in November, during a press briefing Russian President Vladimir Putin said that talks in the Normandy four format are meaningless during an Ukrainian election period. That is mostly due to the fact that despite passing a law that sets the special status of the Donbass region, the Ukrainian government has made nothing to enforce it. The Ukrainian authorities have also made no progress on implementing the Minsk agreement.
The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine has noted the following Ukrainian forces present in government-controlled areas in violation of the withdrawal lines and near them in daily reports:
On December 12th:
In violation of the withdrawal lines:

• A multiple launch rocket system (BM-21 Grad, 122mm) near Kostiantynivka (60km north of Donetsk) heading north-east on road H-20.
  

Beyond the withdrawal lines but outside of designated storage sites:

• 4 tanks (T-64) stationary at the train station in Bakhmut (formerly Artemivsk, 67km north of Donetsk).
  

On December 13th:
Beyond the withdrawal lines but outside of designated storage sites:

• Two tanks (T-72) stationary at the train station in Bakhmut
  
• A self-propelled anti-aircraft system (2K22 Tunguska) being transported on a flatbed trailer moving east near Novoolenivka (48km north-west of Donetsk).
  

On December 14th:
In violation of the withdrawal lines:

• a towed howitzer (D-20, 152mm) under camouflage netting near Dyliivka (49km north of Donetsk); and
  
• a surface-to-air missile system (9K35 Strela-10) near Ozarianivka (formerly Pershe Travnia, 52km north of Donetsk).
  

On December 15th:
Beyond the withdrawal line but outside designated storage sites:

• a surface-to-air missile system (9K33 Osa) near Pidhorodne (73km north of Donetsk);
  
• a surface-to-air missile system (9K33) in Verkhnokamianka (84km north-west of Luhansk);
  
• a surface-to-air missile system (9K33) near Spirne (96km north of Donetsk);
  
• a self-propelled anti-aircraft system (2K22 Tunguska) and three surface-to-air missile systems (9K35 Strela-10) at the railway station in Rubizhne (84km north-west of Luhansk);
  
• a self-propelled anti-aircraft system (2K22) near Mykolaivka (77km west of Luhansk);
  
• a mortar (type undetermined) in Lysychansk (75km north-west of Luhansk);
  
• 60 tanks (T-64) at the railway station in Kostiantynivka.
  

A heavy weapons permanent storage site beyond the respective withdrawal lines in a non-government-controlled area of Luhansk region:

• 7 towed howitzers (D-30 Lyagushka, 122mm) remained missing.
  

On December 16th:
In violation of the withdrawal lines:

• 18 self-propelled howitzers (2S1 Gvozdika, 122mm) and six anti-tank guns (MT-12 Rapira, 100mm) at the railway station in Kostiantynivka (60km north of Donetsk);
  
• a surface-to-air missile system (9K35 Strela-10) near Hnutove (20km north-east of Mariupol); and
  
• a surface-to-air missile system (9K31 Strela-1) near Starohnativka (51km south of Donetsk).
  

Beyond the withdrawal line but outside designated storage sites:

• 11 tanks (T-72) at the railway station in Kostiantynivka;
  
• a self-propelled anti-aircraft system (2K22 Tunguska) at the railway station in Rubizhne (84km north-west of Luhansk).
  

Weapons storage sites beyond the respective withdrawal lines in government-controlled areas of Donetsk region:

• 12 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) (BM-21 Grad, 122mm), a surface-to-air missile system (9K35) and a tank (T-64) were present;
  
• 23 MLRS (BM-21), two surface-to-air missile systems (9K35) and a self-propelled howitzer (2S1) remained missing.
  

On December 17th:
In violation of the withdrawal lines:

• Ten self-propelled howitzers (seven 2S1 and three 2S3 Akatsiya, 152mm) at the railway station in Kostiantynivka;
  
• Two self-propelled howitzers (2S3) heading south-west on road H-20 near Kostiantynivka;
  
• Five towed howitzers (D-30 Lyagushka, 122mm) on a train near Bakhmut (formerly Artemivsk, 67km north of Donetsk);
  
• Three self-propelled howitzers (2S3) heading south on road H-20 near Romanivka (41km north of Donetsk).
  

Beyond the withdrawal lines but outside designated storage sites:

• A surface-to-air missile system (9K33 Osa) in Kalchyk (24km north of Mariupol).
  

In addition to the continued military build-up in the Donbass region, on December 18th, the UN General Assembly approved a resolution on the militarization of Crimea. The resolution voiced "grave concern over the progressive militarization of Crimea" as well as "over reports of the continuing destabilization of Crimea owing to transfers by the Russian Federation of weapon systems, including nuclear-capable aircraft and missiles, weapons, ammunition and military personnel to the territory of Ukraine." Thus, essentially showing that Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has his patrons' support.
In late November, the head of the People's Militia of the Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) Mikhail Filiponenko reported that instructors from the USA, Canada and Europe arrived at the contact line in the Donbass to train Ukrainian officers.
These come in addition to reports by the military command of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), which claimedthat they had received intelligence regarding several scenarios of a Ukrainian offensive in Donbass on December 4th.
Furthermore, in an interview with Radio Komsomolskaya Pravda on December 17th, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned that the Kiev regime is preparing for provocations along the border with Crimea. He vowed that Russia would not wage war against Ukraine.

"I am sure there will be more provocations," he warned. ""[Ukrainian President Pyotr] Poroshenko is planning an armed provocation on the border with Russia, on the border with Crimea during the last ten days of December."
He also noted that Russia cannot recognize the LPR and DPR, because if it does so, "Ukraine would be abandoned to the Nazis."
"You want to recognize the LPR and DPR? And what's next? To lose the rest of Ukraine and abandon it to the Nazis?" he said, when asked why Russia refused to recognize these self-proclaimed republics.

On its part,the US expanded its intelligence gathering missions in the Black Sea, following the November 25thincident.
US Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker claimed that the idea of even more sanctions on Russia is "gaining traction."

Volker told reporters that in Europe, "the notion that there needs to be a response and some additional sanctions and listing of names would occur seems to be one that's gaining some traction."
"I would not be surprised at all to see that happen in the next month or two," he added.

After the November 25th standoff between the Ukrainian Navy and the Russian Coast guard south of the Kerch Strait, Ukraine has stepped up accusations of "Russian aggression" and has claimed that Russia is amassing troops in Crimea, calling for help and deployments from NATO and the US. It also banned the entry of all Russian men aged 16-60 into Ukraine.
The Kiev regime also imposed martial law in 10 regions bordering Russia, the DPR, LPR and Moldova. The martial law is supposed to expire on December 26th. However local elections in the regions were postponed. It is possible that Poroshenko wishes for another escalation to be able to impose a further and more wide-ranging martial law, to avoid the upcoming March 31st Presidential election, which he's likely to lose.
It does appear that the escalation is drawing near, or it is highly likely that one would take place. The only ones refusing to admit the narrative is real are Ukraine and its Western patrons, who are clearly orchestrating it.