The Battle for Novorussiya

[Lauren Johnson]

For all the twists and turns of the Donbass war, the Ukrainians are now likely to attack along the Mariupol contact line according to both Donetsk and Russian officials. The ostensible reason is that Poreshenko is VERY unpopular and elections are coming up. He has declared martial law in the eastern provinces because of the Kerch Strait incident. The thinking is that he needs to present himself as the heroic defender against yet another invasion. And with things not going well in Syria, Trump could use some hero points as well. The distance from the line of contact to the Russian border is about 30km.

Up until now, almost all rumored Ukrainian military actions have been minor or non-existent.