The Battle for Novorussiya

[Lauren Johnson]

Update: shelling of Donetsk continues raise in intensity. Between 10 and 20 people a day are killed. Pictures? Body parts. Meat. The pictures of wounds from phosphorus burns are hideous.

There's lots of news on the diplomatic front. When our guys start getting themselves stuck, the calls for a cease fire come out, and Russia is right there with diplomatic proposals. Hopefully, they won't sell out Donbass like last September.

[video=youtube_share;RnTtstfVO4A]http://youtu.be/RnTtstfVO4A[/video]

Here is Col. Cassad's update for September 5th.

The establishment of the fire control over the M-103 road still doesn't imply that a fully fledged "cauldron" has been formed, but even what has been achieved resulted in diplomatic consequences. The capture of Uglegorsk and the NAF reaching the critically dangerous distance to the crucial supply line not just triggered a serious operational crisis for the Ukrainian army, which it tries like it did before to resolve by local counter-attacks that don't change difficult operational situation for the junta. Besides this the "sudden" activity of the OSCE and the UN in the business of stopping the NAF offensive on Debalcevo and the interception of the single road that can be used both to evacuate civilians and for removing the units of Ukrainian army in the case of making the decision to abandon the "foothold". In this respect we can see how the fighting for obscure settlements and numerically labeled high points may be reflected in big politics, when the dangerously narrowed bottleneck of the Debalcevo protrusion forced such characters as Kerry, Merkel, and Hollande to take off their familiar spots. Difficult, bloody work by the NAF fighters on liberating their native land lies behind their hasty voyages.

The fighting in the area of Troitskoye, Krasnyi Pakhar, Sanzharovka, Chernukhino, Debalcevo certainly don't lead to the disintegration of the junta defense or to the pushing back of the NAF. What's most important: the junta cannot fix the dangerous configuration of the front that emerged in the bottleneck in the area of Logvinovo. The KIAs and the burned armor, which started to show up in open access increasingly more often lately, show the fierce nature of defensive fighting carried out by the junta and also the determination of the NAF to gnaw through this defense. Of course, both sides pay for this with quite serious losses. The junta has enough forces to hold the walls of the "foothold" for now, but it doesn't heave enough forces to liquidate the treat for the crucial road or to recapture Uglegorsk.

It is quite obvious that the order of abandoning Debalcevo won't be given even due to strictly military reasons, the city will be held to the last, gradually abandoning the positions to the east and south-east from Debalcevo if needed. What's also remarkable is that the two heavy battalion-tactical groups that stand in the area of Artyomovsk are still not engaged (1 group was engaged in fighting in the area of Popasnaya + up to a battalion of infantry and 25-30 armored vehicles were redeployed under Troitskoye).
This is in essence the crucial reserve that the junta holds for the case when the read will actually be fully cut and an unblocking strike will be required to the south-west of Svetlodarsk for the forces to exit the encirclement. Also these forces may be used for mitigating a possible breakthrough of the NAF in the area of Popasnaya (if the city will be actually captured, although at this time the interception of the M-103 road appears to be more probable than capturing Popasnaya).

A temporary "cease-fire" will indeed happen in the area of Debalcevo in the coming days for the civilians to exit the battle zone (either to the territory of the DPR or to Artyomovsk through Svetlodarsk). Our forces are engaged in informational and propaganda work on decomposing the junta military in the area of Debalcevo, offering them to abandon their positions and depart towards Svetlodarsk and further on. In principle from our side there is certain understanding that a complete success wasn't reached and it is easier to squeeze the junta forces out by intercepting their supplies and achieving their decomposition rather than wasting own forces in many-day fighting for fortified positions, which will lead to serious destruction of Debalcevo and adjacent areas. But because the junta isn't going to depart in good faith, then there's no way to escape the fighting. Of course, if the encirclement will actually happen, then the junta military will be finished off just like in the summer on all severity and without mercy. So before the possible escalation of the fighting for Debalcevo it is best to remove the civilians from there in order to avoid repeating the situation with Uglegorsk, when heavy fighting unfolded in the town itself and quite a few civilians were indeed killed.

In this respect the visit by Merkel and Hollande to Moscow may theoretically change something and the war may stop on its current lines, but it is more likely that the fighting will continue and their intensity will increase, so Debalcevo and neighboring settlements are due for very rough times.

http://cassad.net/tv/videos/4799/ (in Russian) the review of military map from "Cassad TV" for February 4th
http://voicesevas.ru/news/yugo-vostok/94...22015.html (in Russian) the online-broadcast of the military action on "Voice of Sevastopol" for February 5th

A map of the Debalstevo "boiler" as of 2/4.