The Battle for Novorussiya

[Lauren Johnson]

"After a rought start" (Saker), the PF is holding, except where it isn't.

From a news report the DNR has modified its position regarding the boiler.

Ceasefire applies to Debaltseve area in which the grouping remains blocked thousands of Ukrainian troops.All are in Debaltseve and surrounding towns Ukrainian soldiers have to arrange to leave the city without weapons and equipment.Any attempt to break into the territory of Ukraine or assault our position in this area will be stopped.

I wonder if the peace talks resume and the DNR is forced to allow re-supply and rotation like they had to do with the airport.

[Lauren Johnson]

Update from DNR spokesperson, E. Basurin:

Last night and today, for the first time in a long time, the situation in Donetsk Republic remained relatively calm.

Units of DPR, in accordance with the Minsk agreements, completely halted military operations along the entire contact line at 00:00 o'clock Kiev time.

At the same time during the night and in the morning mortar and gun fire by separate groups of Ukrainian security forces was observed.

In some cases our soldiers had to return targeted fire to stop these provocations.

In accordance with the order of head of DPR, all DPR units are holding fire and not responding to small provocations of Ukrainian troops.

Despite the regime of silence, the situation near Debaltsevo remains tense. Ceasefire on this front did not begin right away. Blocked Ukrainian troops do not cease attempts to come out from encirclement.

Firing of various intensity of our positions, first of all in Logvinovo, continued until the morning from the city and from Luganskoye.

Around 3 am a large armored group of Ukrainian troops, which pulled last night to the Eastern outskirts of Debaltsevo, tried to enter Chernukhino under the cover of the night, but returned to initial position after encountering our fire.

During yesterdays fighting our recon groups acquired 4 Grad installations and a large amount of ammo near Debaltsevo.

All [artillery] installations and ammo were moved from the city overnight.

Overnight on Donetsk front Ukrainian troops fired 4 times from mortars on Donetsk, 6 times - on Donetsk outskirts, 18 times - on Donetsk airport, as well as on other localities.

On Mariupol front militia units held localized defensive battles, halting attempts of Azov regiment to attack Shirokhino and Kominternovo. As a result of exchange of fire the enemy returned to the initial positions.

We are calling on Kiev to closely follow the agreement to halt fire. On our part, we confirm our strict adherence to the agreement on the entire territory of DPR.

At this time the engineering corps of DPR army are demining infrastructure and residential sector, emptied by the enemy earlier, in order to prevent the killing of civilians, who are returning to their homes. This is not only about unexploded Ukrainian ammunition, which is abundant in great numbers across our settlements, but also - infrastructure objects, mined on purpose, such as substations, boilers, small enterprises and roads.

At this time they carry a clear danger to restoring peaceful life and to lives of our civilians.

Therefore in the nearest time, the main efforts of our troops, which are not participating in blocking the enemy, will be focused there.

Donetsk residents, who had lost their housing as a result of shelling are given temporary housing in Donetsk and other settlements of the Republic.

Losses of Ukrainian security forces, as a result of clashes, over the last 24 hours are: 9 tanks, 12 BMP and BTR, 16 artillery systems, 7 vehicles, 111 people killed. This data includes enemy losses prior to the ceasefire, as well as data obtained by our intelligence from radio interception in Debaltsevo.

Total since resuming of military operations 29 days ago, the enemy lost: 3 airplanes, 1 helicopter, 205 tanks, 182 BMP, BTR, MTLB, 208 field artillery guns, 124 vehicles, 2760 people killed, and 60 POW

DPR losses over the last 24 hours, as a result of clashes: 1 BMP, 6 vehicles, 8 people killed, 28 wounded.

We would also like to report that we learned that the Ukrainian side is preparing provocations towards DPR. A large number of journalists, who are controlled by Kiev authorities, were spotted in some settlements. We think they want to record something that we didn't do. We know they are planning to do this, and we will be prepared.

Question: Today militia did not allow representatives from OSCE to enter Debaltsevo. This was announced by Muzhenko, the head of General staff of ATO and a representative of OSCE. Is this true?

To find out what's going on in this area, Muzhenko better ask Semenchenko, since he said he knows everything better then everyone else. But to be serious, before coming here, I called the mission and talked to the representative of OSCE. Their answer was that today no one left in that direction. Therefore to say that they were stopped at a checkpoint is a lie. They weren't there. They did not go in that direction today. This is the official announcement of OSCE

There was an announcement by the Ukrainian side that militia is not preparing for pulling out the [heavy] equipment, because the special platforms are not prepared by DPR. Is this true?

I don't know, I have never heard about any platforms. Let them come and built the platforms. The document doesn't say anything about any special platforms, to keep the equipment surrounded by barb wire, watch towers and security. Such announcement made by the Ukrainian side is difficult to comment on. I announced that the head of the Republic gave orders to develop a plan for pulling the heavy equipment from the contact line, with strict directions to follow the contact line as of September 19. Ukrainian forces will pull the equipment from the line as of February 15. It says that this has to occur simultaneously.

[Magda Hassan]

Googlish translation of a Russian report, like many others, saying Poroshenko's wife and children have left the Ukraine. I have no idea as to the veracity of this information but interesting.

Poroshenko repeat the fate of Gaddafi, or have time to escape to Rostov? The blogosphere today

16.02.2015 00:40

President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko. Illustration: president.gov.ua
As we predicted in the previous article, Minsk agreement Poroshenko go sideways in Kiev brewing revolution, Russia and the European Union - not in the business, white and fluffy, making a surprised face, and only the United States, sinking more and more into the furnace Ukrainian swamp, menacingly frowning on his forehead, do not want to do the right conclusions and are increasingly losing face.
Less than a day after the signing of the agreements Minsk-2 as Kiev disown directly from two key provisions of the Minsk agreements. "On Friday, February 13, at the session of the Verkhovna Rada appeared Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin and immediately caught in the crossfire PR aces Rada headed by Ljashko. Under their pressure Klimkin said that amnesty will not apply to "separatist leaders responsible for crimes against humanity." Further more, Klimkin said that Ukraine is not committed itself to amend the Constitution .
Such a sharp distancing from Minsk summit, the very next day after its completion, shows one thing: Klimkin or washed down the bitter with Poroshenko and does not understand how a document signature to his boss, or Kiev makes it clear that is not going to perform in Minsk agreement. But in the final documents of each item is linked to another: can not be restored control over the border in Ukraine, if there is no amnesty law on the special status of Donbass and constitutional reform. It seems Poroshenko started playing dirty and is already preparing for dying positions in order to avoid the assumed
Also less than a day after Minsk-2, as the United States announced that they in a coffin seen the agreement and retain the right to continue to be imposed on the Russian unilateral sanctions without the EU and Britain, as well as to supply weapons. This was not a surprise to anyone. On the contrary, after Minsk-2 will be very good if the US and further stress on their own, will bury its image chosen power-peacemaker. Especially if in Kiev will another coup and come to power frank Nazis. The supply of arms legitimate authority - is one thing, but the supply of weapons to terrorist operatives - is quite another.
This is a very good development. Especially when you sign an agreement to supply with Poroshenko and acceptance will be carried out militants "Right sector." Impeachment Obama guaranteed, then coming to power in the United States of any African Americans, Latinos, etc. will be permanently closed. Therefore, we will not interfere with the Americans to dig ourselves a big hole. It is better to stand up there and cheer the boys.
Meanwhile, Russia and the EU are guided by the logic of the well-known proverb: "made a deal - walk safely." We are together with the Europeans keep proud silence, as if what is happening does not concern us. Nevertheless, we continue to observe. And the course of events can not but rejoice. Trolling Lavrov during Minsk talks had only one destination - our "partners" in Washington. It is addressed to them - "everything is going better than super" - angry hedgehogs in Washington, injected, but continued to eat a cactus. This trolling continues in the form of deep satisfaction the Russian side the spirit and letter of the signed agreements. On the Cowboys from politics to answer nothing, except arms supplies. By the way, a good idea to get US combat tanks as targets for development of advanced Russian anti-tank weapons.
Against this background, the situation in Kiev continues to swell "spring buds" another coup. According to Yuri of Sumy, "at this time in Kiev sides are preparing for battle (the anniversary of the coup). For Poroshenko is crucial to this point not to lose Debaltseve and thereby keep the situation in the capital under its control. I was told that Sumy VVshniki ready early next week on a business trip to Kiev ... " (http://yurasumy.livejournal.com/397576.html). Two more eloquent detail about the mood in Kiev adds a famous blogger da DZI: "I said yesterday:" In Kiev, February 22 will be the coup attempt. All bands like Antivoyny Shilova samoslivayutsya. Natsik Kolomoyshey to take away power. Infa from our man enough informed. We wish Natsik luck). Just got a call from Kiev: "Wife Poroshenko with children flew from Kiev" " (http://da-dzi.livejournal.com/333358.html).
The situation around Debaltseve continues to swell, and Poroshenko harder to pretend that there is no boiler. So, today, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Klimkin acknowledged that representatives of official Kiev could not get into Debaltseve, ie the boiler is. Zaharchenko reinforced the position of New Russia "hinterland DNR are not subject to discussion and will be trimmed of criminals with guns."
For the main outcome of the Minsk-2 - cessation of civil war, neither of which its termination is not the question: "Judging by the statements of the morning of the Ukrainian side to present them under Debaltseve except for the night application Poroshenko nothing. Loss inside the boiler and on the outskirts of yesterday are huge (probably the greatest fights of all time), and hundreds of people. Accurate count on now for the media may not be possible. Under Shirokino still is fighting (very powerful). As of the morning VSN controlled village. On the eve of a pretty intense battle was fought .
According to the statements "Azov" they lost only 50 people wounded. Believe in 3 killed, I will not. Knowing the ratio in this war we can assume that their 15-20 people. The rest of the fights or stopped or almost stopped (rare skirmishes). Total. Parties shall endeavor to maintain the appearance of the world, although it now NO. But one need to get a loan and they do a good face on a bad game, and the other should give respite to their cities (so far Ukrainian artillery shelling does not risk the peace of the city) and regroup (the same artillery from under Debaltseve) " (http: // yurasumy. livejournal.com/398793.html).
Ie Poroshenko in there is a maximum of one week to take something that will keep the country from another coup. If the situation is under Debaltseve not resolve, and, most likely, it will not go away, then there is a strong likelihood that the February 22-23 in Kiev will be some events. As a minimum, the final bundle clans junta into opposing parts with varying degrees of conflict escalation, as a maximum - the demolition attempt Poroshenko under the slogans of betrayal of ideals of the Maidan, and other violations of the Constitution. In this regard, the frequency of foreign visits last month Poroshenko gets only one meaning - he enlists the help of the European leaders in the event of a coup.
If all was well, like last year, he would have made only one visit - in Washington. The rest would have given the command to take the salute. But in Washington, Poroshenko has nothing to look. Dissatisfaction with them obviously. Therefore, he rushes to European capitals to in the new European trend to fix their legitimacy. Suppose, it is very possible and in exile, not accidentally sent his wife and children from Kiev. In this context, can get very interesting situation - the real power in Ukraine will be at the Nazis, one legitimate president will be in Russia, and the second - in Europe.
What Poroshenko aware of the precariousness of his position in Kiev without armed forces, directly subordinate to him, and say the other day disclosed details of the talks in Minsk, - or rather, the behavior Poroshenko in Minsk: "Poroshenko led his game with the leaders of" Norman Quartet. " Now it is clear why the talks lasted 16 hours. Initially with Poroshenko agreed version of the document is already in Minsk it was rejected. They wrote NEW! Three adults how to scratch again began to persuade another adult who do not understand what he wanted. In fact, they did the dirty work that seemingly made for them diplomats, including assistants Poroshenko. The fear that in Kiev any agreement with the leaders of the DNI and the LC be seen as a defeat, and the Americans accused him of being too diplomatic, so influenced the psyche of hard drinking president that he several times during the night trying to increase the degree of aggressiveness of their own army.
Realizing that February 15 will have to cease fire, Poroshenko tried as far as possible to squeeze troops deep into the republics of New Russia. History terrible: the president of Ukraine in talks devoted to finding a peaceful solution to the conflict, leaving hysteria in the phone and demanded that the General Staff immediately before the end of the negotiations unlock Debaltsevsky boiler. Disruption on the mat, he shouted that he had already told the leaders of the "quartet", if no boiler no. Naturally, because he did his best to present EU leaders Debaltseve as cunning intrigues Putin. When the Chief of Staff to the President and objected timidly said that Debaltseve thrown all forces, and it is not possible to organize a breakthrough caught in the boiler Ukrainian soldiers Poroshenko literally stamped his feet and yelled obscenities into the phone: "Down Lugansk ! Counteroffensive at Mariupol! Bomb! Run all the artillery, all that you have on hand and distract attention from the militants Debaltseve! »(Http://da-dzi.livejournal.com/332436.html).
This information is confirmed by other sources, "Psychosis Poroshenko at the Minsk meeting explained simply - the fear to receive a fatal blow from his friends and rivals - Turchinov, Yatsenyuk and other klyatyh friends who were willing to use any oversight of the president. They even made a draft law to parliament on the impeachment in the midst of negotiations " An important caveat - that the law of impeachment was introduced and Yatsenyuk Turchynov just in the course of negotiations. This kind of last warning - a black mark on the Americans.

View

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Thus, the time for Poroshenko is rapidly declining. However, the removal of Poroshenko power through a coup - not a solution. And Kolomoysky, and Yatsenyuk Turchynov to understand this very well. Therefore, they have only two options - either physically remove Poroshenko and accused Moscow of his death, or hold impeachment proceedings, which are not well spelled out in the Ukrainian legislation. There's no time, so the second option, especially given the fact that poroshenkovskaya part of the "coalition" together with the Regionals will block any attempt to safely hold this decision through parliament, even unlikely. Therefore, the most likely is the first version of sad. Accordingly, Poroshenko left two options of escape - in Europe (Warsaw, Berlin, Brussels) or in Rostov to Yanukovych. Only one question - will have time Poroshenko take a plane ticket?
Yuri Ram - chief editor of the analytical version of a REGNUM

[David Guyatt]

If that report turns out to be true, it will be hard not to smirk a little. To be perfectly honest I'm doing that a little already given the dramatic drop in output of propaganda spewing out from the Anglo-American war-sphere.

[Paul Rigby]

If that report turns out to be true, it will be hard not to smirk a little. To be perfectly honest I'm doing that a little already given the dramatic drop in output of propaganda spewing out from the Anglo-American war-sphere.

I strongly suspect the rumour is true: the NAF is now in the centre of Debaltsevo, having captured (or killed) the Ukrop special forces who had formed the backbone of the organised resistance.

With the fall of Debaltsevo, Poroshenko is finished. It only remains for Washington to decide his fate: exile or death.

[Lauren Johnson]

With the fall of Debaltsevo, Poroshenko is finished. It only remains for Washington to decide his fate: exile or death.

Lead poisoning.

[Magda Hassan]

With the fall of Debaltsevo, Poroshenko is finished. It only remains for Washington to decide his fate: exile or death.

Lead poisoning.

There's a lot of it about...

[Paul Rigby]

With the fall of Debaltsevo, Poroshenko is finished. It only remains for Washington to decide his fate: exile or death.

Lead poisoning.

There's a lot of it about...

Polonium-210

[Lauren Johnson]

opinion from anon military analyst(machine translation)

"The other day it became known that if the world did not come to the Donbas, the NATO aircraft in the next two or three weeks will cause massaging air strike against violators of the peace plan. On the possibility of such an attack yesterday in Munich, said the commander of NATO forces in Europe Philip Breedlove. The fact that the world will not be clear to everyone, as the APU and the special forces of NATO forces are in Ukraine will do everything to shelling continued. Officially, NATO aircraft, as well as in the former Yugoslavia, to attack the position of the troops, who did not stop fighting action, but actually more than 95% of "point" blows will fall on forces and militias only about 5% in units of Ukraine who do not obey the Central Command (Right sector and some volunteer battalions). The task of NATO forces to create a decisive advantage on the battlefield, clean Donbass by "terrorists" and to strengthen the central presidency Poroshenko. What could take in this case Russia? In principle, almost nothing. According to numerous statements by Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials is not a party to the conflict and, therefore, NATO airstrikes on positions militias can not be regarded as a military action against Russia. In addition to the convening of the UN Security Council and angry speeches of politicians is unlikely that something will happen again. Do not declare war on the same. Mrs. Merkel still believes this venture quite risky and therefore it last week flew to Washington, where he tried to convince Barack Obama to postpone the plan, to give a final opportunity to peaceful settlement in Ukraine. Now Vladimir Putin is quite complicated dilemma: either to give the Donbass at the mercy of the APU and NATO or the Americans ahead and send troops (DNI recognize and LC), but in doing so bring a powerful new wave of sanctions and further barrage of criticism of Russia. And then, and another very bad.In the near future we will see whether President Rosii find an honorable way out of the trap of straddling him. "

I vaguely remember reading somewhere that an air craft carrier was taking on extra ordnance before departing the USA.

[Lauren Johnson]

February 16, 2015

Moskony - Live Journal
Translated by Kristina Rus

Previously Novaya Gazeta reported that Mikhail Khodorkovsky is ready to take on responsibility, whenever needed, "to reform the constitution, mainly - redistribution of presidential power in favor of the court, the parliament and civil society".

As you know, Mikhail Borisovich specializes in crisis management, which, in a very difficult economic and political situation in Ukraine, allows analysts to make the obvious conclusion that he is the most needed and predictable candidate for the highest office in this European country.

The level of the crisis in Russia, is simply not comparable with what is happening in today's Ukraine, therefore, a specialist in crisis management of such high caliber may not waste his full potential so inefficiently, focusing only on Russia, and simply must help the Ukrainian people -said unnamed, but very influential source close to the structures were such important political decisions are made.

So far the media failed to get comments of Mikhail Khodorkovsky about this subject. It is expected that an official statement will be published in the final document of the anti-crisis march, to be held on March 1.

Kristina Rus:

Considering, Ukrainian government has been on a mission to assemble the most prominent russophobes from the ex-Soviet republics (mainly Georgia) and evenRussian opposition activists in it's ranks, if one wantedto create the "anti-Russia" in place of Ukraine (as Nikolay Starikov suggests), such move would be brilliant on the part of the puppet masters. If Ukrainian media could convince it's citizens of the utility of killing fellow Ukrainian citizens in Donbass, of electing an oligarch in place of another oligarch - selling Khodorkovsky would not be so difficult, especially since he is the ultimate anti-Putin.