The Battle for Novorussiya

[Magda Hassan]

UKRAINIAN TROOPERS SURRENDER EN MASSE, MANY OF THEM HELP TO MOP UP THE DEBALTSEVO POCKET
Interesting developments re reported from the Debaltsevo pocket (we've got every right to call it so now. Weak-willed army, formed out or forcibly mobilized by criminals in Kiev men, starts to surrender. They even give up by way of fighting with the punitive units of the "patriots".
In Krasnyi Pakhar Ukrainian conscripts took to perimeter defense and began response fire on the fanatics in Ukrainian army. Militiamen arrived from locality Troitskoye in time and they jointly mopped up the Ukies. Ukrainian rebellious soldiers are now taking part in the mopping-up operations in locality Mironovskiy.
There was also an incident in settlement Lozovoye. Ukrainian command sent a unit of kamikaze to meet the army of Novorossiya. They had to be driven by machine-gun fire of the castigator units. Nevertheless, it was the castigators who got shot in the backs, and not the conscripts. The origin of the fire is being specified. It could have been a covert group of the DPR, or the next rebellion in the ranks of Ukrainian army.

Not sure of original source but came via well informed source.

[Lauren Johnson]

UKRAINIAN TROOPERS SURRENDER EN MASSE, MANY OF THEM HELP TO MOP UP THE DEBALTSEVO POCKET
Interesting developments re reported from the Debaltsevo pocket (we've got every right to call it so now. Weak-willed army, formed out or forcibly mobilized by criminals in Kiev men, starts to surrender. They even give up by way of fighting with the punitive units of the "patriots".
In Krasnyi Pakhar Ukrainian conscripts took to perimeter defense and began response fire on the fanatics in Ukrainian army. Militiamen arrived from locality Troitskoye in time and they jointly mopped up the Ukies. Ukrainian rebellious soldiers are now taking part in the mopping-up operations in locality Mironovskiy.
There was also an incident in settlement Lozovoye. Ukrainian command sent a unit of kamikaze to meet the army of Novorossiya. They had to be driven by machine-gun fire of the castigator units. Nevertheless, it was the castigators who got shot in the backs, and not the conscripts. The origin of the fire is being specified. It could have been a covert group of the DPR, or the next rebellion in the ranks of Ukrainian army.

Not sure of original source but came via well informed source.

I checked twitter and facebook. No confirmation as of yet. As much as this would be a rational act all things considered, I suspect this is psychological warfare.

Here is an early SitRep:

Fighting has been continued everywhere along the frontal line. The situation at the areas of Debaltsevo and Mariupol is especially strained.

LUGANSK area. NAF mopped up Troitskoe and Mius. Army of Novorossiya advanced to the suburbs of Popasnaya and started close fight with UAF. Krasny Yar, Stakhanov and Pervomaisk have been under fire by Ukrainian forces.

Heavy fighting has continued near Debaltsevo and Chernukhino, as well as near Lisichansk. Approaching Debaltsevo, NAF have broken through the 2nd defence line (from four).

DONETSK area. Vostochny district of Mariupol was heavily fired with "Grad" MLRSaccording to the accounts of locals, fire came from the area near JSC Ilyich Steel Iron Works and Stary Krim. Ten civilians were killed, more than fifty got injured. Later in the evening there was information about twenty people died.

Whereas, the liberation of Mariupol has startedNovorossiya forces are advancing. Fighting for Krymskoe, NAF approaching Orekhovo-Donetskoe. The Militia took parts of Krasnogorovka and Mariinka. Ukrainian forces are holding their positions approximately in 1,5-2,5 km from the airport terminals. After NAF had pushed the enemy out off Peski, the intensity of fire at Donetsk and suburbs lowered a little bit. However, today UAF has resumed shelling of the Donetsk, and also Krasnogvardeisky and Vostochny districts of Makeevkaat least 6 civilians killed.

NAF defeated a Ukrainian roadblock near Krasny Partizan and took a section of road Donetsk-Gorlovka. NAF pretty close approached Uglegorsk, now Novorossiya troops are mopping up to Mayorsk (near Nikitovka). There is an information about liberation of the village of Dolomitnoe (near Artyomivsk).

Heavy fighting took place near airport, Peski, Gorlovka, and Nikishino. In Nikishino NAF tried to advance against the enemy, but Ukrainian forces strongly repelled the attempt of breakthrough, in the result of what about 7 militiamen were killed and more than 10 injured. According to the Militia's report, UAF is getting reinforcement near Svetlodar, Peski, and Krymskoe.

Ukrainian forces destroyed a bread-baking plant in Gorlovka, and a hospital in Stakhanov.

Right now
UAF is getting reinforcement in Avdeevka. The Militia reported, that Ukrainian troops had set their postions in residential area just between the dwelling houses, thus NAF was going to attack with infantry not using artillery to avoid casualties among the locals. According to the latest reports, the Militia is successfully closing Debaltsevo cauldron now. Novorossiya forces are on offensive to Mariupol.

[Paul Rigby]

Breaking: DPR and LPR forces join and shut the Debaltsevo cauldron, surrounding 7,500 Ukrop troops

http://fortruss.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/b...n-and.html

January 25, 2015

Red News Info Front - VKontakte
Translated from Russian by Kristina Rus

Urgent! The armies of DPR and LPR joined and surrounded 7,500 Ukrainian troops in the Debaltsevo cauldron.

LPR fighter reported that the armed forces of the republics surrounded the occupied Debaltsevo, and UAF is in panic in Lisichansk:

DPR and LPR militia forces surrounded Debaltsevo, Ukrops have a lot of losses. Panic in Lisichansk. Most enjoying joint operations with DPR. Heading to Debaltsevo with DPR is nice. It's a success without a doubt. Literally every 30 minutes in Stanitsa working on the ukrops, not stopping, started sweeping. BMP arrived with help. Debaltsevo will be Ilovaysk 2.0. Its hot here right now, successful attack on Lisichansk, KAMAZ arrived. I was near Debaltsevo - you can take it in a day. Helping DPR.

According to the militia, a group of punishers near Debaltsevo consists of about 7,500 men.

[Lauren Johnson]

Lot's of chatter about closing the Debaltsevo cauldron. I would be surprised if the it is completely and finally closed. But the news is good so far.

Here is a link to a high res map as of yesterday.

[Magda Hassan]

Certainly the news is good. Azov leaders have been crying they have lost because west didn't come to their aid. Here:

Russia has not calmed down, and the West has not helped.
colonelcassadJanuary 25 15:40

Following Bones Grishin zaisteril and Beletsky. The regimental commander "Azov" Andrei Beletsky appealed to Ukrainians with the alarming message, he said that the situation is critical at the front, the West did not help, and the Ukrainian media and military leaders are lying about the thousands killed and their militias burned tanks . "The situation at the front is critical. I do not want to be like tens and hundreds of heralds and rear heroes that soothe the nation.


Lull their "heroism", "stabilization" of the front, thousands of allegedly destroying enemy tanks and burned. Awakening can be very painful.
We must boldly and directly face the truth. Against us powerful and vile enemy ... We were not prepared for the current confrontation. And even with a four months 'truce' did nothing to strengthen their own defense. That all this time we were hoping for an abstract "maybe": Russia can calm down if we forget about the Crimea; West can help us, and so on. d.
Russia has not calmed down, and the West did not help.
It's time to take the most important for themselves as for the people, the decision to live or die.
This war can not be a war, generals and politicians. Their war they have already lost.
This war - war armed people. Here, at the front, enough weapons and determination ". http://rusvesna.su/news/1422186903 - zinc PS. Reasons tantrums commander "Azov" clear his punishers are at the front near Mariupol, where have the opportunity to observe the real strength of WPC in this direction. And so as a threat to feel secretly (remember that "Azov" managed to jump out of the boiler Ilovaisky) begin to suspect something, especially after the bellicose statements Zaharchenko excited not only local punitive, but even distant Britain. Fighting is clearly not going the way you want the junta, so Beletsky not happy bravura statements as they hunt VSN and generally go something there from Russia to win. There would survive themselves, especially Russia and calms down.

And a western military analysis from a few days ago:

The Fate of Ukraine

Events this week may finally wake up Kyiv to the reality it is facing. Ukraine is at war with Russia. It has been so for many months, as was obvious some time ago to those with eyes wanting to see. Ukraine's government has not been in that group, and as military reverses mounted, hiding from painful facts has continued. In their own way, Kyiv mouthpieces have been nearly as dishonest in their depictions of the Russo-Ukrainian War as the Kremlin.
In the face of mountains of contrary evidence, Kyiv insisted that the war in the Donbas has been an "anti-terrorist operation" and that the enemy found there are "terrorists" rather than the Russian soldiers that most of them are. In recent days, Moscow has dropped any pretense and is dispatching battalions across the border essentially openly. Once commonplace efforts to mask insignia identifying these units as regular Russian troops have dissipated as Vladimir Putin feels he no longer needs to hide his aggressive presence in Ukraine.
Why should he? Kyiv is a paper tiger, the Europeans are cowered in the corner, terrified of the Kremlin's next move, while Obama is talking tough about how Russia is losing this conflict, despite the fact that obviously it is not. As usual, Obama is all vapid and chest-puffing talk, coupled with very little action. The White House's tendency towards escapism in foreign policy has become increasingly marked in a manner that ought to worry all those who like a free Europe, but Obama has no grounds to criticize Kyiv for its dishonest depiction of events in Eastern Europe.
The fall of Donetsk airport this week says a lot about Petro Poroshenko and his presidency, none of it flattering. While there was little Ukraine could have done about the loss of Crimea last spring they were floored by Putin's unleashing of Special War with its "little green men," just as NATO was, and Ukraine had no desire to confront Russia head-on, thinking a wider war might be averted Kyiv's leadership since then deserves harsh assessment.
Ham-handed summertime efforts to put pressure on Russian troops and their local proxies led to disaster at Ilovaisk, where ill-prepared and supplied Ukrainian troops and volunteers were cut to pieces. Rather than take the obvious lesson from this, that due to a lack of troops, especially battle-ready ones, Ukraine needed to establish more defensible positions in the Southeast, Kyiv did nothing of the sort.
Instead we wound up with the needless siege of Donetsk airport, an objective of no strategic value except that Poroshenko and his administration said many times that it must be held at any costs, implying Ukraine itself would be lost if this worthless heap of rubble fell to the rebels. Given such rhetoric, one might expect a no-holds barred effort to reinforce the defense, but this being Poroshenko, nothing of the sort happened.
Instead the "cyborgs" bravely holding on to Donetsk airport remained outnumbered, poorly supplied, and dismally led, so their eventual defeat was only a matter of time. With astonishing stupidity, just last weekend Poroshenko, breathing fire, publicly promised that all lost Ukrainian land would be retaken, then turned around and said he was a peace president, not a war president. Then he promptly flew to Davos to hang out with the global one-percent-of-one-percent jet-set. It's no surprise that many Ukrainian frontline soldiers hate Putin yet actively despise their own president.
I've already called on Poroshenko to step down if he cannot manage the war, and it's painfully clear that he cannot. My counsel last week, that Ukraine must emulate Croatia in the 1990's and definitely not Georgia more recently if it wants to win this war, has been met with pushback from fans of Poroshenko, whose argument really boils down to: this is hard. Yes, war is very hard, perhaps even hell if you believe certain battle-tested generals.
A lot of Ukrainians are angry that they have been left in the lurch by NATO, forgetting that they are not a member of the Alliance. NATO will never go to war over the Donbas and the sooner Ukrainians accept that and stop feeling sorry for themselves and get in the war, the better. To be clear: Putin has engaged in naked aggression against his neighbor, just as Milošević did against Croatia in 1991. Yet if Zagreb had approached that war as Ukraine has dealt with its current crisis, complaining instead of fighting, substituting hashtags for strategy, one-third of Croatia would still be in Serbian hands today, an eternally frozen conflict, and that country would still be decades away from membership in NATO or the EU.
Given the complete lack of serious mobilization for war by Poroshenko, the next move is Putin's. Given rather strongly suggested Russian objectives, plus looking at a map, it's likely Russian forces will next move on Mariupol, in an effort to create a land bridge to Crimea. Outnumbered and outgunned Ukrainian troops will resist bravely, again, and again they will lose. At this point there is nothing militarily stopping Putin from creating Novorossiya, a Russian pseudo-state running from the Donbas across the Black Sea coast over to their pseudo-state in Transnistria.
Creating Novorossiya would deprive Ukraine of any coastline, which is another reason Putin may seek to do that. It needs to be understood that, after so many needless and humiliating Ukrainian defeats, Putin is only one operational-level victory away from breaking hard-pressed Kyiv's military in any meaningful sense. The Kremlin can already dictate its terms in the Southeast of Ukraine, and soon it will be able to exert its political will, without a full-scale invasion, over the whole shambolic country.
Putin has the military means to take over all Ukraine, particularly given Russia's total control of the air, but that would be a fool's errand, a humanitarian nightmare coupled with an endless insurgency. We can assume the General Staff has told "the boss" what would happen in that case, and we can hope Putin is listening. More likely is the creation of Novorossiya, step by step, under the Russian tricolor, and with that the shattering of any Ukrainian conventional military capability and political will.
After that, the partition of Ukraine will be easy. The most likely end-state would be a three-way cutting up of the country, with Novorossiya, like Crimea, being joined to the Motherland by a triumphant Putin. The middle of the country around Kyiv, still called Ukraine, would emerge a rump Russian vassal state, independent in name only, to serve as a buffer between Russia and NATO. Ukraine's West would go its own way, by default. Consisting of an expanded East Galicia, Austrian until 1918, this is the heartland of Ukrainian nationalism, unclaimed even by Russian hardliners, who acknowledge its special status and history. Those with long memories will recall that in 1918, after the Habsburgs fell, the West did not seek immediate union with the rest of Ukraine: expect the Kremlin to "remember" this soon. West Ukraine, the remnant not eaten by the Russian shark, would soon join NATO and the EU, as the Russians off-record understand and accept.
This fate is not preordained, yet it approaches fast, and should be acknowledged as the likely outcome of this war by Ukrainians who seem unable to grasp the gravity of the situation Ukraine faces starting with Poroshenko. Should Ukraine be broken and partitioned by Russia, a sad history will have repeated itself, and Putin will have thoroughly overturned Europe's post-Cold War order. This is only part of a broader struggle between Putin and the West since members of the Russian elite are publicly warning of war with the United States, we may want to pay attention but Ukraine is the main battleground for now. There Putin is winning, and he will continue to triumph unless Kyiv decides to get serious about the war that has been forced upon Ukraine. They will lose much more than Crimea and the Donbas if they do not.

[Lauren Johnson]

Dimitry Orlov put up a new post:

The following article appeared briefly at this URL on censor.net.ua and was quickly pulled down. Ironic? It would seem so. My translation. I bring it to you because it succinctly lays out the situation as I've been able to piece it together from multiple Russian- and Ukrainian-language sources, and because you are unlikely to come across anything this truthful from cough Western media cough.

"Panic in Kiev: Ukrainian forces surrender Donbass"

International observers report of growing panic in Kiev in connection with the successful counteroffensive of the separatists near Donbass.

Over a week of fighting the partisans have delivered a heavy blow to the Ukrainian forces. The group of Ukrainian fighters in Donbas suffered huge losses, the soldiers are demoralized, the officers are confused and unable to control the situation.

Ukrainian military leadership is seriously concerned of a new encirclement near Debaltsevo, as well as in other areas.

The situation is made worse by the fact that army and national guard reserves are almost completely depleted, and plugging the gaps in defense using small formations canoot stabilize the front. Besides, the Ukrainian forces are running low on ordnance, food and medical supplies.

In turn, the partisan field commanders report 752 killed Ukrainian military personnel, 59 destroyed tanks and a large number of people taken prisoner. In view of their combat successes, the partisans are refusing to take part in any further negotiations in the format of the Minsk agreements and threaten to continue the counterattack.

Local authorities in Ukrainian-controlled districts near the front report that Ukrainian soldiers are deserting with their weapons and taking to looting the countryside in increasing numbers.

In this critical situation the military is afraid to report to president Poroshenko the real situation in the southeast of the country, hiding from him the full scale of the catastrophe.

The head of state is still convinced that the situation is under control, and hopes that in case of a real threat he will still have the chance to ask the West for help.

And then there is this video evidence: American "boots on the ground" have invaded Eastern Ukraine. How do you say "Get out of my face, please!" in Ukrainian? I guess the grunts aren't taught that in Basic Training... are they too busy learning how to shell civilians and then blame the other side?

[David Guyatt]

The linked story from post 45 above:

Russian Elite Warns Of War With The U.S.

"If there is no banking relationship, it means the countries are on the verge of war."
posted on Jan. 23, 2015, at 10:30 a.m.Miriam ElderBuzzFeed News Foreign Editor








Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov and VTB Chief Andrei Kostin. Ruben Sprich / Reuters

DAVOS, Switzerland The head of a leading Kremlin-owned bank warned on Friday that further banking sanctions would lead Russia and the U.S. to the "brink of war."
Andrei Kostin, the head of VTB, reacted angrily when asked what the consequences would be if Russia were excluded from the Swift banking system, a secure means of moving money across borders.
If it were to happen, Kostin told a session on the Russian economy at the World Economic Forum in Davos, "ambassadors can leave capitals. It means Russia and America might have no relationship after that."
"If there is no banking relationship, it means the countries are on the verge of war, or definitely in the cold war," he said in English, growing increasingly red in the face. "It will be a very dangerous situation."
He said that if Russia were excluded from the Swift system, it would make the U.S.Russia relationship akin to the U.S.Iran one. He made the comments after noting that Russia had recently created its own alternative to Swift.
The U.S. and EU have imposed numerous sanctions on Russia, including against VTB. (Kostin is not on the sanctions list, and recently spoke to the Wall Street Journalabout vacationing in Aspen, Colorado.)
Igor Shuvalov, a deputy prime minister and the head of Russia's delegation to Davos, issued a stern warning to those who would imagine Russia without President Vladimir Putin.
"I support my president 100%," Shuvalov said. "When people ask that, they don't understand the Russian character, they don't know Russian history."
"If we think someone from the outside wants to change our leader, to go against our will … we will be united like never before."
He brushed off questions about Ukraine and warned the West that it must treat Russia like an equal partner rather than having the country "sit in the corner." If it failed to treat Russia equally, Shuvalov warned, Ukraine "will be a huge wound for the next 10 years."
Both Kostin and Shuvalov lamented the current economic situation, which has seen Russia burn through its reserves as the ruble plummets. The ruble has lost almost 50% of its value in the past few months and Russia is facing recession following years of oil-fueled growth.
"There is nothing good in the current situation," Shuvalov said. "It's very difficult. I think it will get worse."
He said the key now was to "teach people from state corporations to citizens to live differently."

[Magda Hassan]

The linked story from post 45 above:

Russian Elite Warns Of War With The U.S.

"If there is no banking relationship, it means the countries are on the verge of war."

,,,
He said that if Russia were excluded from the Swift system, it would make the U.S.Russia relationship akin to the U.S.Iran one. He made the comments after noting that Russia had recently created its own alternative to Swift.

I am pleased to hear that they have already set up an alternative to the Belgian SWIFT system. As with most things in life decentralisation is the way to go.

I'm not sure the US quite know what they are playing with here. It seems they are sawing the branch off whilst sitting on it soon to plummet to the ground.

[David Guyatt]

The linked story from post 45 above:

Russian Elite Warns Of War With The U.S.

"If there is no banking relationship, it means the countries are on the verge of war."

,,,
He said that if Russia were excluded from the Swift system, it would make the U.S.Russia relationship akin to the U.S.Iran one. He made the comments after noting that Russia had recently created its own alternative to Swift.

I am pleased to hear that they have already set up an alternative to the Belgian SWIFT system. As with most things in life decentralisation is the way to go.

I'm not sure the US quite know what they are playing with here. It seems they are sawing the branch off whilst sitting on it soon to plummet to the ground.

I couldn't agree more Maggie. The threat to deny the Russians access to SWIFT was just about the most stupid and dumb thing the neocons could do, and the repercussions of the development of an alternative payment system will eventually and ultimately hurt the US a great deal. Western nations will need to trade with the Russians and those other countries who adopt the new system, sooner or later. I suppose in time a bridge will be developed to operate between the two, but why kill the golden goose for the sake of empty bullshit bravado. It was sheer madness and speaks directly to why the neocons need to be tamed and then unseated and then consigned to the trash can of history.

[Magda Hassan]

Seems to be wide spread rejection of mobilisation in the Ukraine. Mothers are occupying recruitment centers and villagers are chasing out the Kiev officials. Putin is offering Ukrainian males safe haven in Russia.