BND report on shifting power constellations

[Magda Hassan]

BERLIN
(Own report) - The German foreign intelligence service is predicting shifts in the global power constellation and is demanding "a geo-strategic debate in Germany." According to a classified Federal Intelligence Service (BND) study, the collapse of the western national economies, whose recuperation is unpredictable, could lead to a drastic acceleration of China's rise and the decline of West Germany's long-term primary ally, the United States. This intelligence service paper is being currently discussed in Berlin and excepts have been leaked to the press to prepare public opinion for possible changes in global policy orientation. "A long-term global crisis" cannot, for the moment, be excluded, assesses the BND, who, if this happens, is anticipating "massive unemployment and movements of migration in unprecedented dimensions" as well as an escalation of nationalism and very serious international tensions. An essential question, for the future global conflict constellations, according to this paper, will be if Russia can be bound to the West or if Moscow will go over to the Chinese adversary.

The Asian Century
The "confidential" BND study on the effects of the world economic crisis on global power constellations has been discussed in Berlin's government circles since last spring. The gist of the paper is now being expounded upon in the specialized periodical "Internationale Politik" to "generate a geo-strategic debate in Germany."[1] The journal's preface explains that "the world economic crisis is accelerating the dawn of the 'Asian Century.' The global balance of power is being shifted to the East."[2] In its study, the BND developed various scenarios on how this shift could take place. "We are possibly experiencing a geopolitical metamorphosis"[3] summarized BND President, Ernst Uhrlau, the anticipated serious transformations in the international system of states - having recourse to terminology rich in German tradition. Both German attempts to conquer world power last century, were accompanied by "geopolitical" contemplations. For decades, following the Second World War, that term fell into desuetude, until it suffered a renaissance in the 1990s.

Shift Eastward
The BND study's "Scenario No. 1", parts from the premise of "a recuperation of the market situation and a return of confidence in the world's economy".[4] Even though, in this scenario, the USA will be able to still maintain its predominance "for awhile," this will have "no influence" on "China's steady rise," according to the BND. "The weight between the major blocks: the USA, the EU and China" will inevitably "slowly shift eastward," predicts the German foreign intelligence service. This paper's "Scenario No. 1," which the authors doubt will materialize, includes an enhanced margin of maneuver for the most important exporters of raw materials, such as Russia, the Arab countries, Iran and Venezuela, due to their increase in prosperity as well as the rise in the price of raw materials, "with all the advantages and disadvantages that this would entail." This could lead particularly Venezuela and Russia to "act more self-confident on the political stage," warns the BND.

The China Scenario
According to the BND, "Scenario No. 2" would be "much less pleasant." The unprecedented billions of US dollars in bailouts could be a complete flop, the infamous excessive indebtedness of the US credit card could burst new finance bubbles, pulling the economy further into the abyss. If, in spite of the West's collapse, China succeeds in continuing its technological race to catch up, it "will very rapidly rise to become the predominating power in Asia." Whereas the USA has been forced to limit "its radius of action sooner than planned, out of financial considerations" Beijing could play its winning hand throughout the international arena. "The stronger China, and the weaker the USA appear" the more unambiguously many states could begin "to politically orient themselves" on the East, warns the BND. Decisive in this question is in which direction Russia will turn. The foreign intelligence service hopes that Moscow will stick with the West "to avoid having to take on the role of the ascending China's junior partner." But it is also imaginable that Russia will "rely offensively on Peking."[5] Berlin's "Strategic Community" has been contemplating this possibility for some time. Last year the Federal College for Security Studies openly speculated about a "threat of military conflict" between the West (EU, USA) and the East (China, Russia). (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[6])

World War Potential
Whereas the intelligence service officially anticipates a development between Scenarios No. 1 and 2, they have also discovered tendencies that could make a "Scenario No. 3." This scenario predicts "a long-term global crisis" that would lead to an extensive re-nationalization of the world's economies. As a matter of fact, over the past few months, imports and exports in Germany, China, and Japan have dramatically collapsed. If this crisis endures, it could lead to the spread of "political instability" in countries furnishing raw materials due to a lack of exports. In such a case, China would also be threatened with an "unprecedented massive unemployment and movements of migration." The BND anticipates that China - as well as Russia - could pass through this period "by fomenting nationalism" to "redirect [domestic] aggressions toward overseas," eventually even against the West. "One needs little imagination, to picture the conflict that could evolve, for example with the USA" the paper explains in reference to "Scenario No. 3's" potential for a world war.[7]

Prompter
The BND's three scenarios point out the basic lines of Berlin's debate on the global political development for the next few years and decades. The few elements of this study that have been divulged to the public, pass in silence over German tendencies in the domestic crisis - here too nationalism is on the rise [8] - along with the aggressive potential in Berlin's foreign policy. Nonetheless the initiator of the study provides elements of what can be expected in German domestic developments. It was not one of Berlin's political establishment think tanks or one of the large foundations of private corporations that provided the German government with this study on the expected shifts in global power constellations. It was the foreign intelligence service, whose influence over the past decade has already significantly grown. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[9]) Once again, the main prompter proves to be the repressive and espionage apparatus, rather than the civilian establishment in Berlin.

[1] Andreas Rinke: Metamorphose der Geopolitik; Internationale Politik, Juni 2009
[2] Die Neuvermessung der Welt; Internationale Politik, Juni 2009
[3] "Die Terrorgefahr steigt vor den Wahlen"; Handelsblatt 01.06.2009
[4], [5] Andreas Rinke: Metamorphose der Geopolitik; Internationale Politik, Juni 2009
[6] see also Bär und Drache
[7] Andreas Rinke: Metamorphose der Geopolitik; Internationale Politik, Juni 2009
[8] see also National Responses
[9] see also Sicherheitspolitisch verzahnt and Lauschtechnik

[Paul Rigby]

BERLIN
(Own report) - The German foreign intelligence service is predicting shifts in the global power constellation and is demanding "a geo-strategic debate in Germany." According to a classified Federal Intelligence Service (BND) study, the collapse of the western national economies, whose recuperation is unpredictable, could lead to a drastic acceleration of China's rise and the decline of West Germany's long-term primary ally, the United States.

Another real find, Maggie, with much to ponder. A few random observations to follow:

1. According to a Grauniad piece a couple of weeks ago, Britain has already begun cutting deals over African minerals with the Chinese: Is this what underpins the curious marriage of convenience in Zimbabwe?

2. The US has sought to make much of the decision by Turkmenistan to cut a deal with China, to the exclusion of Russia, on a big pipeline. The courtship of Russia by the West promises to be perhaps the bizarrest geopolitical soap of recent decades.

3. What value does Washington expect Moscow to place on any of its blandishments? It's credibility is zero.

[Peter Lemkin]

Interesting and you can bet that lots of governments and think-tanks [even in the USA] have played with this/these scenario(s).....and it ain't gonna be pretty when these inevitable changes happen, most likely. Not only are there lots of resource war scenarios, but the USA as the wounded tiger will be even more dangerous in its death throws than today - willing IMO even to go Nuclear.

[Paul Rigby]

...the USA as the wounded tiger will be even more dangerous in its death throws than today - willing IMO even to go Nuclear.

I agree it will become even more exterminatory in its desperation: I tend to think along the lines of "plagues" - but you could well be right. God help our children and grandchildren. No one else will.

[Peter Presland]

...the USA as the wounded tiger will be even more dangerous in its death throws than today - willing IMO even to go Nuclear.

I agree it will become even more exterminatory in its desperation: I tend to think along the lines of "plagues" - but you could well be right. God help our children and grandchildren. No one else will.

That pretty much sums up how I see things too. Impossible to divine the detail but a few things are pretty clear. First among them is the overwhelming global dominance of US military/surveillance capabilities. In a world approaching a convergence apogee of population growth, climate change, ecological destruction and peak 'just about everything' - especially oil, the US is not going to relinquish that dominance without using it to its maximum first - let alone with ANY grace whatsoever if its doctrines, deceptions, propaganda and tedious self-serving political rhetoric are anything to go by. The world and its dog will continue to be required to see things the US/NATO way - or else. I have grave fears that we are on the cusp of becoming involved in a whole raft of 'or-elses'.

[Peter Lemkin]

...the USA as the wounded tiger will be even more dangerous in its death throws than today - willing IMO even to go Nuclear.

I agree it will become even more exterminatory in its desperation: I tend to think along the lines of "plagues" - but you could well be right. God help our children and grandchildren. No one else will.

That pretty much sums up how I see things too. Impossible to divine the detail but a few things are pretty clear. First among them is the overwhelming global dominance of US military/surveillance capabilities. In a world approaching a convergence apogee of population growth, climate change, ecological destruction and peak 'just about everything' - especially oil, the US is not going to relinquish that dominance without using it to its maximum first - let alone with ANY grace whatsoever if its doctrines, deceptions, propaganda and tedious self-serving political rhetoric are anything to go by. The world and its dog will continue to be required to see things the US/NATO way - or else. I have grave fears that we are on the cusp of becoming involved in a whole raft of 'or-elses'.

Paul, I'd not rule-out (at all!) biological or chemical warfare - or just a whole host of covert false-flag ops in and out of the USA; killer drones; martial law in USA; the whole 'works'.....we're all in for a horrible 'end' unless the American People take back their country and the rest of the world helps out!..as it is now a Global Empire and has its proxies all over. Peter, all you say is also, sadly, true. The people behind this are not the kind to suddenly see the light and realize they've been on the wrong path...they are the types to push harder and faster in the wrong direction. Madmen all!

[Paul Rigby]

The people behind this are not the kind to suddenly see the light and realize they've been on the wrong path...they are the types to push harder and faster in the wrong direction. Madmen all!

Amen. Unfettered by the ballot box, law, conscience or fear of retribution, they will persist to the bitter end. And then cut a deal to ensure a comfy berth under the new geopolitical dispensation. But I have no doubt that there will be a very different dispensation within the next thirty years. Their hubris is so great there can be no other ultimate outcome.

[David Guyatt]

I have to stand back sometime and simply rub my eyes.

Until 1990, Russia was the despised bogeyman on whom nuclear war was envisaged. Throughout the 1990's it was the "wild east" where mafia's ruled and Uncle and the west plundered and gobbled up its riches to their hearts content. Then in this new century it started becoming the evil empire again as Putin took back control and slammed a billionaire or two in prison.

Now we want it for our ally against China -- who Nixon brought into the western fold during the 1980's, but who is not to be our enemy.

In three generations it has gone from essential but hated ally to deadly enemy, then arms-length friend, back to deadly enemy and now to be courted as essential ally again.

What a fookin shambles.

[Paul Rigby]

I have to stand back sometime and simply rub my eyes.

Until 1990, Russia was the despised bogeyman on whom nuclear war was envisaged. Throughout the 1990's it was the "wild east" where mafia's ruled and Uncle and the west plundered and gobbled up its riches to their hearts content. Then in this new century it started becoming the evil empire again as Putin took back control and slammed a billionaire or two in prison.

Now we want it for our ally against China -- who Nixon brought into the western fold during the 1980's, but who is not to be our enemy.

In three generations it has gone from essential but hated ally to deadly enemy, then arms-length friend, back to deadly enemy and now to be courted as essential ally again.

What a fookin shambles.

You mean we aren't led by geopolitical geniuses? Good heavens, whatever gave you that impression?

[Peter Lemkin]

I have to stand back sometime and simply rub my eyes.

Until 1990, Russia was the despised bogeyman on whom nuclear war was envisaged. Throughout the 1990's it was the "wild east" where mafia's ruled and Uncle and the west plundered and gobbled up its riches to their hearts content. Then in this new century it started becoming the evil empire again as Putin took back control and slammed a billionaire or two in prison.

Now we want it for our ally against China -- who Nixon brought into the western fold during the 1980's, but who is not to be our enemy.

In three generations it has gone from essential but hated ally to deadly enemy, then arms-length friend, back to deadly enemy and now to be courted as essential ally again.

What a fookin shambles.

You mean we aren't led by geopolitical geniuses? Good heavens, whatever gave you that impression?

Ah, but they're consistent in their inconsistency!.....gotta admit!