Ukraine: Elections or Emergency Rule?

[Magda Hassan]

U.S. Campaign Advisors Influence Ukraine's Election


Source: Financial Times, January 27, 2010 Citizens in the Ukraine are starting to see American-style campaign sloganeering and other tactics in the race between their Prime Minister, Yulia Tymoshenko, and her main rival, Viktor Yanukovich, for the office of President. Tymoshenko's banners, billboards and posters bear slogans like "They talk, she works," "They promise, she works," and "They betray, she works." The ad campaign is significant because it is the product of the American political consulting firm AKP&D Message & Media, the company founded by President Obama's chief advisor, David Axelrod. Axelrod's son, Michael, still works for the firm. Mr. Yanukovich is being advised by Paul Manafort, a Republican strategist from the firm Davis, Manafort & Freedman, Inc., which has advised several U.S. presidents. Ukraine's outgoing president, Victor Yushenko, received American-style help and campaign advice from Hillary Clinton's campaign strategist, Mark Penn, who was president of the big American PR firm, Burson-Marsteller. The Ukraine is a gold mine for big American political firms, since it is one of the largest countries in Europe, has obscure and weakly-enforced campaign laws, and the major Ukrainian political parties are backed by big businesses, with money to finance professional campaigns.

http://www.prwatch.org/node/8884

[Peter Presland]

The continuing silence over the Ukrainian election result is spooky - that's probably the right word in more ways than one too - a bit like the silence that reigned post-polling in last year's Afghan presidential election.

Considering the policy and geo-political alignment gulf that separates Tymoshenko (who remains in-post as prime minister) and Yanukovich the new President elect (as yet to be conceded by Tymoshenko in spite of all observers including the EU and US indicating that the election was pretty much flawless in its conduct - should that be ringing alarm bells????), there are clearly frantic manoeuvrings going on out of sight.

And now this from Interfax:

NATO thanks Ukraine for readiness to allot troops for Response Force

KYIV. Feb 12 (Interfax) - NATO thanks Ukraine for its willingness to allot its troops for the NATO Response Force, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee Giampaolo Di Paola said while visiting the Ukrainian National Defense Academy on Friday.
NATO appreciates Ukraine's decision regarding the engagement of Ukrainian armed forces for the NATO Response Force, Di Paola said.
NATO also praises Ukraine for its preparedness to allot a radiation, chemical, and biological protection unit to the NATO Response Force in 2010 and engage military transport aircraft for strategic transportation, Di Paola said.
The alliance will also welcome any other contribution that Ukraine might make to its Response Force, he said.

Looks like business as usual to me with nary a (reported) murmur from Yanukovich. But then appearances can be VERY deceptive.

[Magda Hassan]

:playingball: It's mine, all mine, and I'm not sharing it with you!
One possibility is that this will lead to a civil war and division of the country along national and/or political lines. This will still bring NATO to the new 'Russian' border. The west will be pleased with that outcome and a divided and weak balkanised Ukraine to play with in future.

Ukraine: Tymoshenko vows to contest election result


Yulia Tymoshenko said she would not call for street protests

The defeated candidate in Ukraine's recent presidential election run-off, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, has vowed to challenge the result in court.
In her first comments since Viktor Yanukovych was declared the winner, Ms Tymoshenko alleged widespread fraud and said he was not legitimately elected.
Mr Yanukovych has called on his rival to abandon her protests and resign.
His margin of victory was only 3.48% in a poll that international monitors said was an impressive display of democracy.
"I want to clearly state: Yanukovych is not our president," Ms Tymoshenko said in a live televised broadcast.
"Whatever happens in future, he will never become the legitimately elected president of Ukraine."
Not going to court would mean giving up Ukraine to criminals without a fight


Yulia Tymoshenko



Fears of instability in Ukraine

But she said she would not call people on to the streets to protest, as she had done after the 2004 presidential election.
"I will not call another Maidan [Independence Square demonstration] and will not allow public protests," she said.
Mr Yanukovych was pronounced the victor six years ago, only for the result to be overruled because of vote-rigging. The Orange Revolution eventually brought Ms Tymoshenko's erstwhile ally, President Viktor Yushchenko, to power.
'Proof'
The prime minister said more than a million votes, which she said were decisive to the outcome, were invalid.
"With all this proof, I have taken the only possible decision: to challenge the results of the election in court. I will defend our state and the choice we made on the basis of legal documents," she said.
"Not going to court would mean giving up Ukraine to criminals without a fight."
On Wednesday, Mr Yanukovych demanded his rival resign as prime minister and go into opposition.
"I want to remind Ms Tymoshenko that the basis of democracy is the will of the people. Democratic leaders always accept the results of the elections. The country does not need a new crisis," he said.
The BBC's Daria Merkusheva in Kiev says Ukraine's Central Election Commission is expected to confirm Mr Yanukovych as president-elect early next week, after which the legal challenges are likely to start.
Ukraine has been in political deadlock for several years, undermining its ability to deal with a severe economic crisis. Analysts say a challenge by Mrs Tymoshenko would prolong the instability.
With Mrs Tymoshenko still heading the government, stalemate is likely to continue. Mr Yanukovych has said he wants to form a new coalition, and may try to call snap parliamentary elections.

[Peter Presland]

One possibility is that this will lead to a civil war and division of the country along national and/or political lines. This will still bring NATO to the new 'Russian' border. The west will be pleased with that outcome and a divided and weak balkanised Ukraine to play with in future.

That pretty much chimes with the piece that started this thread a week before the elections and I agree, it is still very much a possibility. Western covert doctrine is to foment division of the most brazen and viscous types as means to influence and eventual control and as a 'bad-loser' way of scorching the earth so to speak. It's been played out time and time again ad nauseam all over the world, so much so that it must be blindingly obvious to ANYONE aspiring to non-Western aligned power by now.Frustrating that doctrine and strategy is quite another matter though. The US/NATO axis, with its global hard power/surveillance, economic (waning hopefully) and covert ops projection capabilities is pre-eminently in the position of being able to make offers that cannot be refused - to use that telling old 'Godfather' analogy.

I know how words and tones can be twisted by the press but the twist to those Magda posted are unusual. Tymoshenko comes across as petulant and divisive with her 'surrendering the country to criminals' remark. Whereas Yanukovich, whilst forthright, appears the statesmanlike one.

I still think this whole issue is pivotal for NATO. Cursory scanning of Rick Rozoff's 'Stop Nato' Yahoo list shows that it is chock full of reports - and I mean 5 - 10 per day from Russia and all over the Caucasus and Central Asia - with stories of NATO's push to deploy missiles in the Black Sea and generally dominate it. Hardly any of it appears in the Western MSM but that in itself tells a story.

[Magda Hassan]

Another thing on the NATO wish list is to get rid of the Russian naval base which is leased till 2017. Yanukovich wants to renew it. The Gas Queen wants it gone. NATO would love to deny Russia any home in the Black Sea to the Russians. Never mind that the base has been there since the 18th century. The locals chased off the 'visiting' US and NATO ships after the Georgian war. There are the Tatars, amongst others, to play with and get them to secede plus the Islamic card. For NATO the outcome is crucial.

[Magda Hassan]

The Gas Queen has called off the election challenge. :fight:

Ukraine Prime Minister Drops Election Challenge



By CLIFFORD J. LEVY
Published: February 20, 2010
MOSCOW — Prime Minister Yulia V. Tymoshenko of Ukraine effectively conceded the presidential election on Saturday by withdrawing her legal challenge to the results, saying that she did not believe that she would get a fair hearing.
Valentin Ogirenko/European Pressphoto Agency
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko attended a Supreme Administrative Court session in Kiev on Saturday before accusing the high court of prejudice against her.




Her decision clears the way for the inauguration on Thursday of the winner, Viktor F. Yanukovich, the opposition leader, capping a comeback for him. Mr. Yanukovich was the loser in the 2004 Orange Revolution, when he was criticized as a Kremlin pawn who did not want Ukraine to become more democratic and pro-Western.
Mr. Yanukovich has sought to refashion his image in recent years, vowing to improve relations with both the European Union and Russia.
It was not immediately clear on Saturday whether the court in Kiev would formally allow Ms. Tymoshenko to cancel her appeal. It may go ahead with the proceedings and issue a ruling against her.
Speaking at the court, Ms. Tymoshenko was defiant, and her party said it would boycott Mr. Yanukovich’s inauguration.
“Sooner or later, an honest prosecutor’s office and an honest court will assess that Yanukovich was not elected president of Ukraine, and that the will of the people was fabricated,” she said.
The end of Ms. Tymoshenko’s challenge is expected to bring about a relatively peaceful transfer of power in Ukraine, a little more than five years after the mass Orange protests broke out over the last disputed presidential election.
Still, Ms. Tymoshenko, an Orange leader, remains prime minister, and has rejected Mr. Yanukovich’s demand that she resign. He intends to put together a coalition in parliament to dismiss her or, if that fails, to call parliamentary elections, which could create more political instability.
Ms. Tymoshenko had refused to concede the Feb. 7 elections, which she lost by 3.48 percentage points, asserting that Mr. Yanukovich had won only because his campaign had engaged in widespread fraud. Yanukovich aides had described her accusations as phony and desperate.
European election monitors had called the election honest and fair, and many world leaders, including President Obama, have congratulated Mr. Yanukovich.
In announcing her legal challenge, Ms. Tymoshenko had promised not to organize demonstrations, acknowledging that Ukrainians were disillusioned from years of political turmoil.
As it began evaluating Ms. Tymoshenko’s case on Friday, the Higher Administrative Court in Kiev rejected her petition to scrutinize documents from election districts in the Crimean Peninsula, a Yanukovich stronghold, and also to question election and law-enforcement officials.
On Saturday, Ms. Tymoshenko went to the court and announced that she did not see any point in continuing, suggesting that the judges were biased against her.
“It became clear that the court is not out to establish the truth,” she said.
She also attacked the court for not permitting the proceedings to be broadcast.
Ms. Tymoshenko had earned fame in the Orange Revolution, which occurred after supporters of Mr. Yanukovich were accused of stealing the 2004 presidential elections. A court threw out the results, and Viktor A. Yushchenko was victorious in a new election over Mr. Yanukovich.
Ms. Tymoshenko had charged that with the 2010 presidential election, Mr. Yanukovich’s campaign had once again relied upon dirty tricks. But analysts had indicated that Ms. Tymoshenko was unlikely to prevail in court, given the margin of Mr. Yanukovich’s victory and the election monitors’ assessment.

[Peter Presland]

I thought I'd posted the al Jazeera report on her withdrawing the legal challenge about an hour ago.

Must have failed to hit the post button after reviewing several times - oops.

Aside from noting her now familiar 'little girl tantrum' demeanour - as in her "we do not see sense in further proceedings in the case," to the court, followed by "It has become obvious that it is not a court and it is not justice." to waiting reporters - my main comment concerned the implications for US/NATO.

The relentless pursuit of the Black Sea as US/NATO controlled lake does now appear to be in need of a re-think.

It's high time something came along to challenge it and this may well be it. The tide about to turn maybe?

Let's hope so.

[Magda Hassan]

She wont concede. She is too busy sowing doubt and dissension. That will be the tactic for dealing with Yanukovich.

Ukraine's Tymoshenko set to fight on


Yulia Tymoshenko is refusing to go despite requests from the new president


By Dariya Merkusheva
BBC News, Ukraine


Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko withdrew her appeal case against the elections results from the Supreme Administrative court and the court has closed the case. But she has not conceded.
She said once again that Viktor Yanukovich will never be considered Ukraine's legitimately elected president.
This is in stark contrast to her fellow Orange Revolutionary - incumbent Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko.
On Saturday he finally congratulated his long-time rival, Mr Yanukovich, on a legitimate victory.
Sergei Mishchenko, an MP from Mrs Tymoshenko's party, has said their party is planning to boycott the inauguration ceremony scheduled for 25 February.
He also added Mrs Tymoshenko is not giving in, she will not recognise the elections results and she will continue to work as prime minister.
Mr Yanukovich has asked Mrs Tymoshenko to step down from her post on several occasions. And she has said that she will not.
President-elect Yanukovich's Regions Party might seek a new coalition

As president, Mr Yanukovich does not have the right to fire or to appoint a prime minister - that is up to Ukraine's parliament.
At the moment Mrs Tymoshenko's party is still part of the parliamentary coalition, but negotiations are under way to form a new coalition based on Mr Yanukovich's Regions Party.
One of the leaders of the Regions Party, Nikolai Azarov, speaking to Ukrainian TV channel Inter, said it was fantastic to even consider the possibility of Mrs Tymoshenko remaining in her post for much longer.
But no-one here in Ukraine thinks it will be an easy task to remove her.
Country in limbo
Once MPs form a new coalition they are likely to vote Mrs Tymoshenko's government out, but until a new government is formed - and that can take weeks in the current political situation - Mrs Tymoshenko will remain as acting prime minister under President Yanukovich.
Analysts agree that little will be achieved in those weeks, and the country will remain in limbo.
Of course, these coalition talks depend on many factors, on internal politics and favours.
If they fail, Ukrainians will have to vote once again - in early parliamentary elections.
Either way, despite peoples' hopes, the economic situation is not likely to improve drastically.
Last year the country's economy shrank by 15%.
Mr Yanukovich vowed to unite the country

Mr Yanukovich has promised to improve the lives of those most disadvantaged - state workers and pensioners.
During his election campaigning he also promised to create more jobs.
But with a government run by his rival he will experience difficulties in fulfilling any of his promises.
Mrs Tymoshenko will also not be able to push any of her priorities.
The country is still living according to last year's budget. It is even unclear where the money for the inauguration is to come from.
Ukraine is also waiting for the much needed last tranche of the $16.4bn (£10.6bn) bailout programme from the International Monetary Fund.
This payment was suspended last year - until after the presidential elections with a specific demand from the IMF for political stability and a democratic transfer of power.
However, Mr Yanukovich will have to consider what his rival stands for. Half the country did, after all, vote for Mrs Tymoshenko, and he won by a small margin.
He promised to unite the country - the Russian-speaking east and south that backed him overwhelmingly, and the Western Ukrainian-speaking half that backed Mrs Tymoshenko.
But no-one is really certain how he will achieve that.
Just after the elections Mr Yanukovich said he was still undecided whether to visit Russia or an EU country first, but now the Kremlin is saying Mr Yanukovich will go to Moscow in early March.
There are no announcements about a visit to a Western European capital yet.

[Peter Presland]

She wont concede. She is too busy sowing doubt and dissension. That will be the tactic for dealing with Yanukovich.

I think you're right Magda.

Where the West cannot secure a government that 'sees things its way' outright, the tactic is ALWAYS to beaver away at sowing division, cultivating dissent and encouraging/financing/agent-provocateuring outright violence.

No doubt it would have been nice to have the 'Orange Revolution' consolidated and the NATO ranks swelled further, but my guess is that, by itself, this is probably not that much of a setback. Probably more significant for its effects on Georgia and prospects for it encouraging others in the region opposed to US/NATO domination - a niggling and irritating worry in other words.