UN Resolution 1929 - Sanctions on Iran

[Peter Presland]

It's certainly cynical enough to be plausible. And the US would have to give its permission...

I'd say it has a pretty solid ring to it. It's like that hard to find piece of jig saw that slots in perfectly - perfectly with that extended lead up, puntuated by long silences and flurries of posturing, to the UN resolution.

I find myself making major adjustments to where I thought we were at geo-politically. Looks to me like Russia is easing itself/being eased and placated and bribed/threatened - whatever, into a sort of acquiescence with the US/UK/NATO world view - like an offer has been made that cannot be realistically refused.

Oh dear.

[Paul Rigby]

It's certainly cynical enough to be plausible. And the US would have to give its permission...

I'd say it has a pretty solid ring to it. It's like that hard to find piece of jig saw that slots in perfectly - perfectly with that extended lead up, puntuated by long silences and flurries of posturing, to the UN resolution.

I find myself making major adjustments to where I thought we were at geo-politically. Looks to me like Russia is easing itself/being eased and placated and bribed/threatened - whatever, into a sort of acquiescence with the US/UK/NATO world view - like an offer has been made that cannot be realistically refused.

Oh dear.

And then there was one: China

The amazing thing is, Russia has been here (or hereabouts) before, most notably in the late 1980s, when Gorbachev received all sorts of promises from Bush I, none of which the US foreign policy establishment had any intention of keeping.

Can Boris really be that stupid? Or is it the case that Moscow feels it has no option but to acquiesce in its own destruction?

[Paul Rigby]

Can Boris really be that stupid? Or is it the case that Moscow feels it has no option but to acquiesce in its own destruction?

Alternatively, I've missed the point completely: Perhaps Moscow is trading an ally of convenience, an ally it cannot ultimately sustain, for access to a technology it believes it essential to acquire in order to fight the kind of imminent internal insurgencies it is sure the US is intent upon unleashing, in, say, Siberia. It is surely only a matter of time before US (and UK) think-tanks and historians discover Siberian nationalisms in urgent need of arms, Berezovsky, and narco-cash.

[Jan Klimkowski]

Back to the practicalities, some spooks have leaked the following to Murdoch's (London) Times:

Saudi Arabia gives Israel clear skies to attack Iranian nuclear sites

Saudi Arabia has conducted tests to stand down its air defences to enable Israeli jets to make a bombing raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities, The Times can reveal.

In the week that the UN Security Council imposed a new round of sanctions on Tehran, defence sources in the Gulf say that Riyadh has agreed to allow Israel to use a narrow corridor of its airspace in the north of the country to shorten the distance for a bombing run on Iran. To ensure the Israeli bombers pass unmolested, Riyadh has carried out tests to make certain its own jets are not scrambled and missile defence systems not activated. Once the Israelis are through, the kingdom’s air defences will return to full alert.

“The Saudis have given their permission for the Israelis to pass over and they will look the other way,” said a US defence source in the area. “They have already done tests to make sure their own jets aren’t scrambled and no one gets shot down. This has all been done with the agreement of the [US] State Department.”

Sources in Saudi Arabia say it is common knowledge within defence circles in the kingdom that an arrangement is in place if Israel decides to launch the raid. Despite the tension between the two governments, they share a mutual loathing of the regime in Tehran and a common fear of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. “We all know this. We will let them [the Israelis] through and see nothing,” said one.

The four main targets for any raid on Iran would be the uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Qom, the gas storage development at Isfahan and the heavy-water reactor at Arak. Secondary targets include the lightwater reactor at Bushehr, which could produce weapons-grade plutonium when complete.

The targets lie as far as 1,400 miles (2,250km) from Israel; the outer limits of their bombers’ range, even with aerial refuelling. An open corridor across northern Saudi Arabia would significantly shorten the distance. An airstrike would involve multiple waves of bombers, possibly crossing Jordan, northern Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Aircraft attacking Bushehr, on the Gulf coast, could swing beneath Kuwait to strike from the southwest.

Passing over Iraq would require at least tacit agreement to the raid from Washington. So far, the Obama Administration has refused to give its approval as it pursues a diplomatic solution to curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Military analysts say Israel has held back only because of this failure to secure consensus from America and Arab states. Military analysts doubt that an airstrike alone would be sufficient to knock out the key nuclear facilities, which are heavily fortified and deep underground or within mountains. However, if the latest sanctions prove ineffective the pressure from the Israelis on Washington to approve military action will intensify. Iran vowed to continue enriching uranium after the UN Security Council imposed its toughest sanctions yet in an effort to halt the Islamic Republic’s nuclear programme, which Tehran claims is intended for civil energy purposes only. President Ahmadinejad has described the UN resolution as “a used handkerchief, which should be thrown in the dustbin”.

Israeli officials refused to comment yesterday on details for a raid on Iran, which the Prime Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, has refused to rule out. Questioned on the option of a Saudi flight path for Israeli bombers, Aharaon Zeevi Farkash, who headed military intelligence until 2006 and has been involved in war games simulating a strike on Iran, said: “I know that Saudi Arabia is even more afraid than Israel of an Iranian nuclear capacity.”

In 2007 Israel was reported to have used Turkish air space to attack a suspected nuclear reactor being built by Iran’s main regional ally, Syria. Although Turkey publicly protested against the “violation” of its air space, it is thought to have turned a blind eye in what many saw as a dry run for a strike on Iran’s far more substantial — and better-defended — nuclear sites.

Israeli intelligence experts say that Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan are at least as worried as themselves and the West about an Iranian nuclear arsenal.Israel has sent missile-class warships and at least one submarine capable of launching a nuclear warhead through the Suez Canal for deployment in the Red Sea within the past year, as both a warning to Iran and in anticipation of a possible strike. Israeli newspapers reported last year that high-ranking officials, including the former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, have met their Saudi Arabian counterparts to discuss the Iranian issue. It was also reported that Meir Dagan, the head of Mossad, met Saudi intelligence officials last year to gain assurances that Riyadh would turn a blind eye to Israeli jets violating Saudi airspace during the bombing run. Both governments have denied the reports.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/wo...148555.ece

[Jan Klimkowski]

There's been a direct Saudi attempt to refute the Times story above.

It's hardly surprizing that bin Nawaf would claim it was untrue.

On balance, I suspect the original leak - that the Saudis have granted a time limited corridor of airspace to an Israeli bombing run - is correct.

Saudi Arabia: We will not give Israel air corridor for Iran strike

vPrince Mohammed bin Nawaf refutes Times of London report saying Saudi Arabia practiced standing down its anti-aircraft systems to allow an Israeli bomb run.
By Haaretz Service Tags: Israel news Iran nuclear Saudi Arabia



Saudi Arabia would not allow Israeli bombers to pass through its airspace en route to a possible strike of Iran's nuclear facilities, a member of the Saudi royal family said Saturday, denying an earlier Times of London report.

Earlier Saturday, the Times reported that Saudi Arabia has practiced standing down its anti-aircraft systems to allow Israeli warplanes passage on their way to attack Iran's nuclear installations, adding that the Saudis have allocated a narrow corridor of airspace in the north of the country.

Prince Mohammed bin Nawaf, the Saudi envoy to the U.K. speaking to the London-based Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat, denied that report, saying such a move "would be against the policy adopted and followed by the Kingdom."

According to Asharq al-Awsat report, bin Nawaf reiterated the Saudi Arabia's rejection of any violation of its territories or airspace, adding that it would be "illogical to allow the Israeli occupying force, with whom Saudi Arabia has no relations whatsoever, to use its land and airspace."

Earlier, the Times quoted an unnamed U.S. defense source as saying that "the Saudis have given their permission for the Israelis to pass over and they will look the other way.

"They have already done tests to make sure their own jets aren’t scrambled and no one gets shot down. This has all been done with the agreement of the [U.S.] State Department."

Once the Israelis had passed, the kingdom’s air defenses would return to full alert, the Times said.

Despite tensions between them, Israel and Saudi Arabia share a mutual hostility to Iran.

"We all know this. We will let them [the Israelis] through and see nothing,” the Times quoted a Saudi government source as saying.

According to the report, the four main targets for an Israeli raid on Iran would be uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Qom, a gas storage development at Isfahan and a heavy-water reactor at Arak.

Secondary targets may include a Russian-built light water reactor at Bushehr, which could produce weapons-grade plutonium when complete.

Even with midair refueling, the targets would be as the far edge of Israeli bombers' range at a distance of some 2,250km. An attack would likely involve several waves of aircraft, possibly crossing Jordan, northern Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

Aircraft attacking Bushehr, on the Gulf coast, could swing beneath Kuwait to strike from the southwest, the Times said.

Passing over Iraq would require at least tacit consent to the raid from the United States, whose troops are occupying the country. So far, the Obama Administration has refused this.

On Wednesday the United Nations passed a fourth round of sanctions against Iran in an attempt to force it to stop enriching uranium. But immediately after the UN vote, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad vowed the nuclear program would continue.

Israel hailed the vote – but said sanctions were not enough and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused to rule out a raid.

Netanyahu's predecessor, Ehud Olmert, is believed to have held secret meetings with high-ranking Saudi officials over Iran.

[Magda Hassan]

Israel and Saudi Arabia have had a very cozy relationship for at lest the last 10 years. I agree that SA has given Israel an air corridor. Apart from any spacial relationship with Israel they are no friend of Iran.

[Paul Rigby]

Alternatively, I've missed the point completely: Perhaps Moscow is trading an ally of convenience, an ally it cannot ultimately sustain, for access to a technology it believes it essential to acquire in order to fight the kind of imminent internal insurgencies it is sure the US is intent upon unleashing, in, say, Siberia. It is surely only a matter of time before US (and UK) think-tanks and historians discover Siberian nationalisms in urgent need of arms, Berezovsky, and narco-cash.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?c...&aid=19726

France Sells Weapons to Russia: Russia Presses Demands for High-Tech French Warships

Negotiations on most ambitious bid to reach out to Russia have stumbled

by Marina Lapenkov

PARIS: Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin met with President Nicolas Sarkozy on Friday as Moscow pressed demands that French warships it wants to buy should come with high-tech equipment.

The sale of the Mistral-class assault ships is widely seen as France’s most ambitious bid yet to reach out to Russia, but negotiations have stumbled, notably over Moscow’s demands for a transfer of technology.

The deal would be the first sale of advanced military hardware to Russia by a NATO member country.

Speaking in central Paris at the opening of a big exhibition showcasing Franco-Russian cooperation, Putin said France and Russia must work together to keep their competitive edge in science and technology.

“The world is going through a difficult time and we have to stand together to remain competitive,” Putin said at the event, standing alongside Prime Minister Francois Fillon.

“In scientific and technological areas, we must unite our efforts,” he said before heading to the Elysee palace for talks and lunch with Sarkozy.

Putin told AFP in an interview on the eve of his visit that a deal on the Mistral, now under negotiation for more than five months, is possible only if the vessel comes equipped with cutting-edge technology.

France has said it will not lump sophisticated navigation systems and other sensitive technology into the deal for the ships, that cost about 500 million euros ($600 million) each.

“For us the most important thing is to buy technology. That is the future,” reiterated Russian Industry Minister Viktor Khristenko on Friday.

The sale of the Mistral warships, which can carry 16 helicopters and a 750-strong landing force, has also run into complications over Moscow’s insistence that three of the four vessels be built in Russia.

“For us, this deal is interesting only if it is accomplished with a parallel transfer of technology,” Putin told AFP.

Russia’s neighbours in the Baltics and Georgia, along with the United States, have raised objections over the sale but France has countered that Russia must be treated like a partner and not a threat in Europe.

There have been concerns that the warships could be deployed in the Black Sea, where tensions are high following the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia and among ethnic Russians living in Ukraine’s Crimea region.

Russia’s military chief of staff, General Nikolai Makarov, said in Moscow this week that the vessel could be used to patrol waters near Pacific islands that are the subject of a long-running dispute with Japan.

The Russian leader met with his former French counterpart, Sarkozy’s predecessor Jacques Chirac, first thing on Friday and was to have talks later with the head of French oil giant Total, Christophe de Margerie.

Two other major French energy companies are involved in Russian-led projects to bring gas to Europe: EDF in the South Stream gas pipeline and GDF in another known as North Stream.

The prime minister is leading a delegation of top businessmen from Russian aerospace, energy and transport who will be looking at prospects for new partnerships during a series of round-table discussions.

Putin last held talks in France in November and President Dmitry Medvedev was warmly received during a state visit in March that yielded a string of deals in energy, transport, aeronautics and aerospace.

The countries also cooperated in pushing through fresh sanctions this week against Iran over its suspect nuclear programme.

Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on Friday said Russia will comply strictly with the sanctions, but did not make clear whether a controversial planned sale of S-300 air defence missiles to Iran would go ahead.

[Magda Hassan]

Perhaps a stronger opposition from Russia ill come sooner than later.

Israel, Russia fail over drone deal
Tue, 15 Jun 2010 20:27:35 GMT

Israeli-built Heron, an unmanned drone aircraft used for surveillance missions


Israel and Russia have failed to reach an agreement worth about $400 million over selling drones to Russia and setting up a factory in Moscow to produce them, a new report says.

According to a report by Russian sources, the joint production deal is facing opposition from the Israeli Foreign Ministry and the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Israeli media reported on Tuesday that Tel Aviv was reluctant to provide Moscow with such valuable technology due to the United States' opposition to the deal.

The report came shortly after spokesman for Israel Aerospace Industries Doron Suslik said the firm was interested in doing business with Russia.

During the Georgia-Russia conflict in South Ossetia in the summer of 2008, Georgian forces used unmanned drones to identify Russia's force buildup. After the war Russia had felt the inadequacy of its capabilities in this regard and started negotiations with Israel to purchase and build drones.
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=130...=351020202

[Helen Reyes]

It's as if the Kaczynski plane crash incident were tried in the court of world opinion, and the judge declared a mistral.

[Peter Presland]

This was on Press TV a couple of days ago here it is from CSIS. Confirmation (for me anyway) that Russia really is moving significantly towards accommodation with the US/UK/NATO.

Don't have the references to hand but I clearly recall Russian Spokesmen stating that the S300 - being a defensive system - would NOT be embargoed by the passing of UNR 1929, during the manoeuvring leading up to the vote. Now we have them saying 'oops sorry, the system IS covered'. Are we seriously expected to believe that, post vote, they have finally gotten around to analysing the content of what they were voting on and discovered it was something other than they believed beforehand? Christ! - they're worse than the West when it comes to absurd, convoluted self-justifiction. The plain fact is they've rolled over and had their tummies tickled.

Putin standing up to the US eh? - fact is he's a pussy cat and, if a couple of old blogspot sites I have archived are anything to go by, he is also in the pocket of MI6.

After a period of confusion and apparent contradiction over whether the Russian government would continue in its planned sale of S-300 missiles to Iran following the latest round of U.N. Security Council sanctions, the Russian government has confirmed that the sale has indeed been cancelled. The Russian Federal Service on Military-Technical Cooperation released a statement that announced

An analysis of the provisions of the UN Security Council Resolution 1929 adopted on June 9, 2010, conducted by the FSMTC experts, shows that the restrictive measures contained in the document apply to the delivery of S-300 air defense systems to Iran as well.

The announcement came on the heels of a report from a presidential aide in France France during a meeting between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin who said that

Russia had decided to "freeze the delivery of the S-300 missiles."

Putin also said supporting the Iran sanctions was a decision that "wasn't exactly easy," according to the presidential aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The cancellation of the sale marks the apparent end of a contentious arms deal that has irked both American and Israeli officials because of its ability to strengthen Iranian air defense capabilities. As we noted in our earlier blog post about the sale, while the specific language of the Security Council sanctions do not prohibit the sale, the sanctions do call

upon all States to exercise vigilance and restraint over the supply, sale, transfer, provision, manufacture and use of all other arms and related materiel [outside the battle tanks, armoured combat vehicles, large calibre artillery systems, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships, missiles or missile systems as defined for the purpose of the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms specifically prohibited]

The Russian government apparently has decided that the S-300 deal falls within the spirit, if not the precise wording, of the text. As State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said

For the first time, the resolution calls for states to exercise vigilance and restraint in the sale or transfer of all other arms and related materiel. We appreciate Russia's restraint in the transfer of the S-300 missile system to Iran.

The Russian cancellation is a diplomatic victory for the United States, which has consistently opposed the sale but was unable to pass a series of Security Council sanctions that expressly prohibited such a sale. The Russian decision could be the start of further cooperation between the United States and Russia on Iran and may signal success in the Obama Administration’s attempts to reset relations with Russia.

All is not positive news, however. One cancelled arms deal is unlikely to prompt Iran to seriously reconsider its nuclear program. What’s more, the Russian government has in fact expressed its determination to maintain defense ties and cooperation with Iran. The cancellation of the missile deal may also remove one of the checks on an Israeli unilateral military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, an operation that would have tremendously destabilizing effects in the Middle East and around the world. The United States will be happy that Russia cancelled the S-300 deal, but must only renew its commitment to resolving the situation peacefully and not see the cancellation as opening up the possibility for a military strike.