US/NATO War on Russia

[Magda Hassan]

From a commenter The Saker's website:

Larchmonter445 said...The Pivot to Asia is centered on Malaysia.

The US Navy demands its hegemonic control of the Straits of Malacca so it can strangle China's oceanic transport (commodities in, products out).

The Chinese want to build a canal through Thailand to end the Straits as a choke-point. So the government there is overthrown by chaos and the military.

Malaysia has very entwined Free Trade Zone relationships with China.

Everywhere China invests, the U.S. creates chaos.
Libya, Greece, South Sudan, Ukraine, Thailand, Iraq, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Vietnam, Mongolia are just a few.

I follow China very closely for the last dozen years and this pattern is predictable. The U.S. turns peace into war, investment into loses, stability into chaos. Most of these are maritime or petroleum points in the Chinese trade system. They have lost hundreds of billions in recent years because of these situations.

The Chinese need Russia, Russia needs China. And they need to gather more big nations. BRICS and SCO are just the beginning of what they need.

The U.S. is going to toss Turkey some heavy trouble soon. Probably, will use the Kurds and ISIS.
Turkey is talking to Russia. It is inevitable that Turkey will get a storm the government cannot handle.

The U.S. is working over South Korea for its very close relationship with China. Forcing a missile defense system which is a threat to both China and Russia. Notice, last week the DPRK offered the idea of a Federal re-uniting of North and South. What was the response? I've heard nothing. Didn't the world want this? Isn't that what the last 60 years has been all about? Well, the U.S. does not want a resolution. It wants trouble, so its power is necessary in the East China Sea region.

Malaysia is an easy patsie for U.S. power. It isn't radical muslim, isn't aggressive by nature, a place you can build filthy rare earth processing plants and they won't say anything about the pollution.

I imagine the Chief of Station of the CIA can tell the Prime Minister and head of Malaysia Air that we are going to disappear a plane or two, kill some 600 people and string the world along with lies, and the leadership will say nothing. Patsies. Overwhelmed. They'd give the COS their wives and daughters, or sons for a night or two, if that was the "request".

So a few lying headlines is no big thing in KL.
26 July, 2014 13:40

Interesting comments. The Malay/Chinese/Indian racial faultlines within Malaysia can be activated to keep them busy and distracted too.

The deeply worrying question for me is: Will Russia's internal divisions prevent it from dealing optimally with those increasingly obvious facts.
26 July, 2014 16:26

Having lived through the Cold War, most confrontations and wars took place far away from Russian borders. This Ukraine situation has a feel unlike anything I can remember.

Watch the dialectics at play.

[Lauren Johnson]

Pepe Escobar

The horrible thing about the Two Minutes Hate was not that one was obliged to act a part, but that it was impossible to avoid joining it ...

A hideous ecstasy of fear and vindictiveness, a desire to kill, to torture, to smash faces in with a sledgehammer, seemed to flow through the whole group of people like an electric current, turning one even against one's will into a grimacing, screaming lunatic - George Orwell, 1984


So Obama, Merkel, Cameron, Hollande and Italian Premier Matteo Renzi - let's call them the Fab Five - get on a video conference call to muster their courage and "increase pressure" asking for a cease-fire in Gaza. Later in the day, Israel's Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu delivers his answer, in plain language: he remains dead set on achieving his version of a Final Solution to Gaza. [1] With or without "pressure".

So what's left for the Fab Five after having their illustrious Western collective behinds solemnly kicked? They decide to dump Gaza and instead sanction Russia - again! How brilliant is that as an exit strategy?

Spectacular non-entity Tony Blinken, who doubles as deputy national security adviser to Barack Obama, was keen to stress to Western corporate media that the unruly Eurotrash mob is now "determined to act". No, not against Israel because of Gaza; against Russia because of Ukraine. Such a lovely Orwellian symmetry: the extended Two Minutes Hate from Israel towards Gazans morphs into the extended Two Minutes Hate from the "West" towards Russia, mirroring the extended Two Minutes Hate from Kiev towards Eastern Ukrainians.

Not even Hollywood could come up with such a plot; Israel gets away with unlawful premeditated mass murder of civilians, while Russia gets framed for a (smaller-scale) airborne mass murder of civilians that has all the makings of being set up by the Kiev vassals of Russia's Western "partners".

Here I have exposed how sanctions, sanctions, sanctions is the one and only official Obama administration "policy" on Russia. On top of the next European Union sanctions, coming soon, the US will be piling up - what else - more sanctions. After all, Washington is so "concerned" that Moscow will sooner or later invade Ukraine; that would certainly, and finally, answer all those In God We Trust prayers.

Where we stand now
Let's follow the facts. Washington from the get-go said it was Russian President Vladimir Putin's missile that downed MH17. They swore they had evidence. Like in "We know. Trust us". The historical record for the past 60 years at least shows they cannot be trusted. There was never any evidence. Just spin.

Moscow, via the Defense Ministry, presented hard evidence. And called for an unbiased international investigation. Washington ignored it all - the call and the hard evidence.

The US Navy, crammed with state-of-the-art missile defense radars, has been in the Black Sea for weeks now. As much as the Russians, they have tracked every particle flying over Ukraine. The NSA goes for signals intelligence; the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency goes for phenomena in the imagery realm; the Defense Intelligence Agency adds Humint; there's the CIA; and there's the all-seeing, all-knowing Director of National Intelligence. How come all this trillion-dollar Full Spectrum Dominance apparatus cannot come up with a single, conclusive piece of evidence?

The only risible "evidence" presented so far pictures the acronym salad of US intel agencies spending their time reading blogs and Twittering. As in the State Department head in Kiev twittering satellite imagery that the New York Times parroted "proved" Russia is shelling Ukraine from across the border. The proverbial "senior US officials" even had to tersely admit on the record they have no proof whatsoever about "Putin's missile". If they had, NATO would be ready to flip burgers in Red Square.

Based on the wealth of info now in the open, the top probability of what caused the MH17 tragedy was an R-60M air-to-air missile shot from a Ukrainian Su-25 - and not a BUK (there's also the possibility of a double down; first an R-60M and then a BUK). The R-60M is very fast, with an ideal engagement distance of up to five kilometers. That's how far the Su-25 detected by the Russians (they showed the graphics) was from MH17.

SBU - Ukrainian intel - for its part confiscated the recordings of Kiev control tower talking to MH17. That would certainly explain why MH17 was overflying a war zone (Malaysian Airlines revealed they were forced to). Hefty bets can be made the recordings are now being "doctored".

Then there are the black boxes, which will not de decoded by the Malaysians or by the Dutch, but by the Brits - acting under Washington's orders. As The Saker blogger summed up the view of top Russian specialists, "the Brits will now let the NSA falsify the data and that falsification will be coordinated with the SBU in Kiev which will eventually release the recordings who will fully 'confirm' the 'authenticity' of the NSA-doctored recordings from the UK." To make it more palatable, and erase suspicions about Anglo-American foul play, the Dutch will announce it. Everyone should be forewarned.

NATO heads, for their part, are droolin'. Kiev's forces/militias will hold "joint exercises" with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Ukraine in slightly over a month from now, on September 1; red alert applies, because this is when Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said the slow motion ethnic cleansing of Donbass will be finished.

As for the R2P ("responsibility to protect") angle, it sounds quite improbable. True, Moscow can always say that unless the slow motion ethnic cleansing of Donbass stops they will recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk Republics. In that case, Moscow would be replaying Abkhazia and South Ossetia; a de facto R2P backed by military muscle.

Under international law - which Washington never respects, by the way - this is not the same as "invading" Ukraine. The frankly scary Samantha Power, the US Ambassador to the United Nations, would obviously freak out - but that's a dose of her own medicine. It would indeed be comparable to what the Americans are doing to the benefit of those Salafi-jihadis in Syria; and better yet, to what the US did in Kosovo.

The $50billion vultures
And now, on top of sanctions, Moscow also has to contend with a massive US$50 billion theft attempt. The International Arbitration Court in The Hague found that the Kremlin's pursuit of Yukos and its main shareholder, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a decade ago was politically motivated. Moscow can't appeal - but it will pursue all legal avenues for trying to get this ruling "set aside".

Well, it's The Hague's decision itself that is political. Khodorkovsky was found guilty not only by the Russian judicial system but also by the European Court of Human Rights. Yukos and Menotep shareholders were and remain a bunch of oligarch gangsters - to put it mildly.

So here's the Empire of Chaos once again in action, manipulating a Dutch court after literally stealing Germany's gold and fining France for selling warships to Russia. In this case though, the "West" has more investments in Russia than the Russian government in the West. Payback could be a bitch - as in Moscow, for instance, freezing all US and EU energy investments especially in the new ultra-profitable frontier, the Arctic oil fields. Western Big Oil will never allow this to happen.

This could go on forever. The bottom line: the Russian state simply won't allow itself to be robbed by a dodgy ruling on behalf of a bunch of oligarchs. In parallel, a case can be made that not only the Return of the Living (Neo-Con) Dead but also substantial sections of the deep state in Washington DC and environs - as well as "Western" plutocracy - want to provoke some sort of NATO war against Russia, sooner rather than later.

And in another parallel line, Moscow rumor has it that the Kremlin finds this protracted post-Yukos battle just an afterthought compared to the economic war about to convulse Europe and eventually pit Europe against Russia: exactly what the Empire of Chaos is praying - and working - for. "Two Minute" Hate? Talk about hours, days, weeks, and years.

[Magda Hassan]

Antiwar Protests Spreading in Ukraine as Government Wages All-Out War in the Southeast and NATO Threatens Russia

Friday, 01 August 2014 11:24 By Roger Annis, Rabble | News Analysis A rising wave of antiwar and anti-conscription protest is taking place in cities and towns across western Ukraine. The protests are prompted by the announcement of Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko ten days ago that a "third" military mobilization is now required for the war that his governing regime began waging against the population of eastern Ukraine three months ago. Kyiv calls the war an "anti-terrorist operation."
The protests are paralleled by a rise in Ukraine army desertions and refusals of men and women to heed conscription orders.
Poroshenko's mobilization proposal was approved by the Ukraine Rada on July 22. The measure means that more people will be conscripted into military service and that more reserve army units will be thrown into the battle theatre.
Since the crash of Malyasia Airlines Flight 17, Kyiv has embarked on a frenzied military push into southeast Ukraine to try and defeat a pro-autonomy rebellion there. It is blocking access by investigators to the MH17 crash site and the forward line of its military push consists of intense and random bombardments of towns and cities amounting to war crimes on a massive scale.
This video of shelling of an apartment block in the city of Donetsk on July 29 is an example of what is occurring. Buzzfeed reports, "Tuesday's attack was the first time that shelling hit central Donetsk, a hitherto tranquil rebel stronghold. It left three people dead and wounded 15. The nearby city of Horlivka declared three days of mourning after heavy fire killed 17 overnight and wounded several dozen others. At least four more people died in shelling in the Donetsk suburb of Yasynuvata."
Kyiv is in a race to defeat the rebellion before the crippling cost of it all as well as rising antiwar protests and army desertions bring its offensive to a halt. It also has to worry about anticipated revolts by the Ukraine population as a whole once the harsh consequences of the economic association agreement that Kyiv signed with the European Union on June 30 bite deeper and deeper.
Protests on the rise
Although the propaganda websites of the Kyiv government boast of the successes of its now three-month long "anti-terrorist operation" in eastern Ukraine (which it dubs its "ATO"), the special mobilization measure approved last week shows its war is in trouble. More fighting units are needed, the national treasury is effectively bankrupted by it all and there are rising numbers of desertions from the army and growing protests by mothers, wives, friends and neighbours of conscript soldiers. ICTV reports that the advisor to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Anton Gerashenko, has announced that anyone in Ukraine who agitates on social media against the regime's war will be arrested.

The expanding protests have multiple messages. Some oppose the war outright. Others are specifically addressing the harsh and dangerous conditions that soldiers are facing in the east.
One of the most dramatic of the many protests since the "third mobilization" measure was announced has been in the port and shipbuilding city of Mykolaiv (also spelled Nikolaev), on the Black Sea, east of Odessa. Mothers and wives of soldiers repeatedly blocked the Varvarovsky Bridge over the Bug River for three days beginning July 25. They demanded a return of their sons or husbands from lengthy tours of duty in the 79th Paratroop Regiment. The tours have been extended and the regiment has suffered intense combat.
The women went on foot to the bridge carrying placards reading "Save our boys!" and used a pedestrian crossing to block traffic. Tussles with police and militia took place. (See dramatic video footage here from July 25.)
On the first day of the protest, the women drafted a letter to President Poroshenko which the mayor of the city and regional governor agreed to deliver. The women said their action would not end until they received a satisfactory reply. They didn't receive that. A police mobilization ended the blockade on July 27. Some protesters were arrested.
The websites Hronika.info and ZIK.ua report that in the town of Bohorodchany in Ivano-Frankivsk oblast (region) [1], in southwest Ukraine bordering the Carpathia region, angry people attacked the military registration office and the premises of other local organs of power on July 22. They burned conscription documents. (Ukraine language report here.)
It's a rural region and protesters sounded a theme that is common to many of the anti-conscription protests: they say their menfolk lack proper training and equipment and therefore face "certain death" when sent to the east.
"Certain death" faced by soldiers is not a sign of a war going well. It also suggests that the most recent report of the Office United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights reporting "at least" 1,129 killed by the war in Ukraine is seriously understated. It's a fact that the report's claim of "100,000" people made refugee by the war is laughingly low -- Russia says more than 500,000 refugees have crossed its border since the war began in April and Ukraine admits to nearly 100,000 internal refugees.
Russia has condemned this latest report by the OUNCHR, saying, "Its key message is that the government of Ukraine is permitted to legitimately use force to restore law and order in the east of the country."
Also on July 22, residents of the village of Skobychivka linked arms and formed a human chain to block the road from Ivano-Frankivsk to Bohorodchany, causing a kilometre-long traffic jam. The protesters held placards reading: "No Afghanistan in Ukraine!" "Send call-up notices to the children of the higher-ups!" "Return our children to us," and "Stop the bloodshed." A common slogan in the protests is "Refuse!"
A separate report in Vesti quoted the relatives of soldiers saying their sons were being used as "cannon fodder." The report said people were also protesting in Yaremcha, in the same region, and in Sambor, Lviv region.
Not far from that area, in Bukovina region, residents in seven villages blocked roads on July 28. That region is southwest Ukraine includes a significant population of Romanian descent.
A video published by 112.UA shows soldiers' relatives blocking a road in Obukhivs'kyi district, near Kyiv on July 24 demanding a return of soldiers from lengthy duty.
Protesters in the Odessa region blocked the Black Sea coastal highway for hours on July 28.
Residents of six villages in Sokyryanskyi region (Chernivtsi oblast) -- Bilousivka, Lomachyntsi, Mykhalkove, Serbychany, Korman and Romankivtsi -- blocked the highway between Chernivtsi and Novodnistrovsk on the morning of July 25, demanding that their menfolk not be sent to war.
Protests have gripped the entire region of Chernivtsi in southwest Ukraine. A video recording showed people saying, "We don't war -- we want peace" and "We did not raise our children for war. We will not give them our children."
This video (screen below) shows a group of people, mostly women, from Chernivtsi who gather to confront a local military recruitment officer. They are carrying their sons or husbands' conscription orders.
"Go fight your own war," they tell the conscription officer, who tells locals to "go to the Internet" if they want to find out why the new mobilization is happening. He is referring to the Kyiv regime's intensely propagandistic websites devoted to all things "ATO." But the protesters are having none of that. They gather dozens of blue-coloured conscription orders into a pile and burn them.
As they stand around watching the flames, they're all voicing their opinions. One mother says, "[Kyiv authorities] are fleeing like rats from a sinking ship, but they come here to take our sons and send them to death. They made the mess and now they need us to clean it up." The conscription officer stands by helplessly. What can he do? He is following orders.
In the settlement of Marshintsi in the Novoselytskyy region of Chernivtsi, protesters blocked the entry of soldiers and police. Residents brought tyres and barricaded the road leading into the village. Many wrote letters of refusal, describing the events in the south-east as a "slaughter".
On July 20, the Kyiv-Chop highway was blocked by local residents, mainly women, in the vicinity of the village of Hamaliivka near Lviv. A protest last month also blocked the highway. The same highway was blocked on July 28, in the villages of Rakoshyno and Znyatsevo, near the border of Slovakia and Hungary.
Here is one of the latest videos to be published on YouTube, of a protest in the town of Town of Novoselytsya in Chernivtsi oblast on July 30.
Many protests are voicing a "No Afghanistan in Ukraine" demand. This harkens back to the ten-year war that the Soviet Union fought against the people of Afghanistan, beginning in 1980. Altogether, 14,500 soldiers of the Soviet Union's army died, 54,000 were wounded and many, many more Afghans died. The war was a major factor in the collapse of the Soviet Union, which happened not long after it withdrew from Afghanistan in ignominious defeat in 1988.
Post-Soviet, independent Ukraine later joined the U.S.-led occupation and war in Afghanistan. A small force still participates.
The well-known Ukrainian television journalist and commentator Ostap Drozdov has called for a boycott of the latest mobilization decree. The website Russkaya Vesna reports him saying: "My program yesterday (on the regional television channel ZIK) can be considered the start of an informal campaign to boycott the mobilisation. I state my intention to give my utmost support to this initiative, which goes by the provisional name "Mobilisation Equals Genocide.'"
He said, "It is very important that people who speak out against the mobilisation of the civilian population should see that they are not isolated. There are a great many of them."
Army in trouble
Exact numbers of army desertions are not known and are the subject of considerable debate and counter-debate. This website report, for example, publishes a purported Ukraine army report saying that close to 3,500 soldiers deserted in the third week of July and that 1,600 soldiers died and 4,700 were wounded in that same time. Sources in Russia say the documents it cites are not authentic.
Here is a brief news report in which several Ukraine soldiers speak of their decision to take asylum in Russia. (Many videos of the fighting in eastern Ukraine are posted here on the "Anti-Maidan YouTube Channel.")
This video records a protest in Kyiv of relatives of the 72nd Army Brigade that suffered heavy losses from a rocket attack some days ago. The protesters chant "Help the heroes". A poster reads: "Send [Rada] deputies and generals to the battlefield!" They pray, and sing the Ukraine national anthem.
The Brigade was caught in a grisly cauldron in southeast Ukraine with many killed and injured and some survivors taking refuge in Russia. In this video, soldiers of the brigade speak for 13 minutes of their difficult and disturbing combat experience.
The pro-Kyiv, Interfax news service reports on 18 Ukraine soldiers who took refuge in Russia and received medical treatment.
Russia Today reported several days ago of this group of 40 soldiers who entered Russia and requested asylum.
Recasted fascist introduces conscription bill
Andriy Parubiy introduced the "third" mobilization bill to the Rada. He is Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, a key advisory body to the President and the Parliament on military matters. He says the measure will mobilize 15 more army combat units and 44 combat support units.
Parabuiy is a renowned fascist in Ukraine who has modified his image in the past year and risen to prominence in the Kyiv regime that seized power in February of this year. Last year, he joined the Fatherland party of former Ukraine prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko and was elected to the Rada. Fatherland is a neo-conservative coalition/party.
U.S. journalist Robert Parry wrote of Paruiby earlier this year, "Parubiy is himself a well-known neo-Nazi, who founded the Social-National Party of Ukraine in 1991. The party blended radical Ukrainian nationalism with neo-Nazi symbols.
"Parubiy also formed a paramilitary spinoff, the Patriots of Ukraine, and defended the awarding [in 2007] of the title 'Hero of Ukraine' to World War Two Nazi collaborator Stepan Bandera, whose own paramilitary forces exterminated thousands of Jews and Poles in pursuit of a racially pure Ukraine."
The United States is boosting its military aid and training to Ukraine. The announcement came from U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt on July 25. The U.S. already committed to $23 million in equipment; that will now rise to $33 million. It is also intervening in the countries it dominates in the region to boost the training and equipping of their armed forces, including Moldova and Romania on Ukraine's southwest frontier and Poland on the northwest.
Kyiv's ruthless shelling and bombing of towns and cities is running out of time due to the war's huge financial cost. Describing Ukraine's economy, the Washington Post wrote on July 26:

"The IMF forecasts that Ukraine's annual GDP will drop by 6.5% this year, while the government deficit is projected at 10.1% of GDP. This week, the government announced that it would need at least 800 million dollars to continue its counterinsurgency operation and asked the parliament to further increase taxes and cut public spending. The deputies' refusal to appropriate needed funds yesterday triggered Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk's resignation as he recognized that soldiers would receive no pay next month. The reconstruction of Donbas is even more uncertain as the government promised to turn to foreign donors for funds in the coming fall."

In a remarkable admission last week, Ukraine's ambassador to Canada, Vadym Prystaiko, told the Globe and Mail, "We are pouring all the money in our budget... into the anti-terrorism campaign."
The war is scandalously riding roughshod over the international investigation into the crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. Investigators were blocked from reaching the site on July 27 and in the days following by the relentless shellings and other bombings by the Ukraine army in the region.
As reported by international media, inspectors are lodged in hotels in Donetsk each night and the passed easily through self defense lines surrounding the city to get to the site. But as the days wore on, the international media reported the blockage as due to "fighting" and "clashes."
On July 30, Kyiv propaganda began saying that rebel fighters had placed mines on the crash site and were shelling it. That story evaporated the following day when, in circumstances unexplained, inspectors finally reached the site.
The grim reality of Kyiv's military campaign in eastern Ukraine has been airbrushed out of mainstream news reporting. Little or no visual presentation of bombardments or other war crimes is allowed to pass through editorial filters. The war and its consequences are explained away in the vacuous language of "fighting" or "clashes" taking place. The Toronto Star's Tanya Talaga began a front-page article on July 30 with, "The European Union and western nations joined on [July 29] to try to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop his military aggression in Ukraine..." (Inside the same edition, the Star published a factual account of the bombardments of cities and towns.)
The European Union is matching the Ukraine army offensive by upping its economic sanctions on Russia. The sanctions are punishment for Russia's refusal to obey U.S. and European demands that it police the pro-autonomy movements in eastern Ukraine and pressure them to surrender. They are also part of the long-standing drive by the member countries of the NATO military alliance to weaken and isolate Russia.
The rising antiwar movement in Ukraine has profound consequences for the future of the country. Will protests stop Kyiv's war before southeast Ukraine is reduced to ruin? Will Ukrainian as well as international protests give pause to the military planners at NATO who are increasingly training their sites on Russia?
Ukraine's economic elite has made a sharp turn to embrace austerity Europe. The kind of austerity consequences that have ravaged Greece and other countries of southern Europe await the Ukrainian people. How will the antiwar protesters and other ordinary Ukrainians react as the government deepens unpopular cuts to social programs and subsidies that reduce the cost of essential items?
Protests around the world are needed to stay the hands of the warmakers in southeast Ukraine. Solidarity actions can stop the killings. They can also help Ukrainians to chart a different path of economic and social development. That would be fitting because anti-austerity sentiment was at the heart of the rebellion in eastern Ukraine in the first place.
A new, 80-minute video compilation, Ukraine Crisis, has been produced that provides a powerful record of the war in eastern Ukraine during the past month. A warning, there are some scenes of death and destruction caused by the Kyiv government's shelling that are disturbing, particularly in the four to six minute section, inclusively. The testimony of the woman who speaks for five minutes at the 1'17"30 mark is especially insightful and heartrending. She has lost her son to the war, not knowing since March if he is dead or alive. She asks, "What has become of this Ukraine nation?"
This article draws in part from a July 28, 2014 article from the Russian website Rabkor ("Worker Correspondent") which was translated into English by Renfrey Clarke.
Notes:
[1] Ukraine is subdivided into 25 regions: 24 oblasts (regions, or provinces) and one city with special status, Kyiv. Two former oblasts -- Donetsk and Luhansk -- voted in May for autonomy. The ferocity of Kyiv's war is driving those two regions to a de facto secession.

http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/25322...ens-russia

[Magda Hassan]

Money for mercenaries because they can't get the army to kill other Ukrainians fast enough.

1

U.S. To Allot $19 Million For Ukraine's Neo-Nazi National Guard

Sun Aug 3, 2014 7:40 pm (PDT) . Posted by:

"Rick Rozoff" rwrozoff

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/216646.html

Interfax-Ukraine
August 2, 2014

U.S. plans to spend $19 mln on training Ukraine's National Guard - media


The U.S. Defense Department and the Department of State plan to allocate $19 million to strengthen Ukraine's defense capability, according to Russian NTV Channel.

"The press secretary of the U.S. Department of Defense, Rear Admiral John Kirby, said that the money would be spent on training and re-equipment of the National Guard of Ukraine. In particular, the U.S. military are going to train and equip four companies and one tactical headquarters of the Ukrainian National Guard," the statement reads.

If the U.S. Congress approves the proposed plan, Pentagon will begin retraining of the Ukrainian National Guard in 2015. The training center will be located at the international peacekeeping and security center in Yavoriv, Lviv region, the TV channel said.

The trainers would be provided by U.S. Army Europe and by the California National Guard, the channel quoted the Pentagon spokesman as saying.

Earlier reports said that Washington planned to provide some $8 million to the State Border Service of Ukraine for the purchase of engineering equipment and technology, the report says.

====================================================================

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/216629.html

Interfax-Ukraine
August 2, 2014

U.S. considering extending support to Ukraine in various areas, says Biden


Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has had a telephone conversation with U.S. Vice President Joseph Biden, during which they discussed the situation in Donbas and the progress of the international inquiry into the circumstances of the crash of the Malaysia Airlines MH17 flight.

...

For his part, Biden appreciated Poroshenko's contribution and welcomed the consolidation of the Ukrainian parliaments and government, which helped to maintain political stability in Ukraine.

He also expressed the U.S. support of Ukraine's position in the IMF, which is considering disbursement of the second tranche under the Stand-By Arrangement. In addition, the U.S. vice president said that a special team for expanding the direct economic support is currently working in Ukraine. Overall, apart from the financial and economic assistance, the U.S. is considering the possibility of expanding its support for Ukraine in other fields.

Poroshenko and Biden agreed to maintain direct contact which will vary in intensity depending on the further developments in Ukraine, the presidential press service said.

[Magda Hassan]

Russian bans import of Western food. What is not reported in the western press is that he has already set up getting alternative products from Chile Argentina and other countries all of whom are more than happy to supply them.

Russia bans food imports from Canada, other countries for 1 year

08/07/2014 07:15 AM The Canadian Press

Russia is responding to fresh sanctions from Canada, the U.S. and other countries with a ban on food imports for a year.
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev says the ban covers meat, fish, milk and milk products and fruit and vegetables from Canada, the U.S., the European Union, Australia and Norway.

The move announced Thursday was taken on orders from President Vladimir Putin in response to sanctions imposed over the crisis in Ukraine.
Canada on Wednesday slapped new sanctions and travel bans on several top Russian and Ukrainian politicians and groups with ties to Putin's government.
Canada's latest sanctions, imposed in co-ordination with the U.S. and the EU, came amid reports Russia is massing thousands of troops along the Ukrainian border. Putin then ordering authorities to draft a list of agricultural products from countries that have imposed sanctions on Russia.
Medvedev said Russia is also considering banning Western carriers from flying over Russia on flights to and from Asia a move that would significantly swell costs and increase flight time. He said a decision on that hasn't been made yet.
Russia may also introduce restrictions regarding imports of planes, navy vessels and cars, Medvedev said, but added that the government will realistically assess its own production potential.
Russia's food ban will mostly affect Canada's pork industry. Canada's agricultural exports to Russia amounted to $563 million in 2012, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, and most of them were frozen pork.
Prime Minister Stephen Harper has frequently said Russia's occupation of the Crimean Peninsula and provocative military activity in eastern Ukraine is a "grave concern" to Canada and the world.
Harper said Canada is prepared to take further actions if Putin's government continues its military aggression.

http://www.citynews.ca/2014/08/07/russia...or-1-year/

[Lauren Johnson]

Dear friends,

I just took a short break from my life in "meatspace" to comment upon the great news of the day: Russia is introducing a full 12 months embargo on the import of beef, pork, fruits and vegetables, poultry, fish, cheese, milk and dairy products from the European Union, the United States, Australia, Canada and the Kingdom of Norway. Russia is also introducing an airspace ban against European and US airlines that fly over our airspace to Eastern Asia, namely, the Asia-Pacific Region and is considering changing the so-called Russian airspace entry and exit points for European scheduled and charter flights. Furthermore, Russia is ready to revise the rules of using the trans-Siberian routes, and will also discontinue talks with the US air authorities on the use of the trans-Siberian routes. Finally, starting this winter, we may revoke the additional rights issued by the Russian air authorities beyond the previous agreements. This is such an interesting and major development that it requires a much more subtle analysis than just the crude calculation of how much this might cost the EU or US. I will attempt no such calculation, but instead I would point out the following elements:

First, this is a typically Russian response. There is a basic rule which every Russian kid learns in school, in street fights, in the military or elsewhere: never promise and never threaten - just act. Unlike western politicians who spent months threatening sanctions, the all the Russians did was to say, rather vaguely, that they reserve the right to reply. And then, BANG!, this wide and far-reaching embargo which, unlike the western sanctions, will have a major impact on the West, but even much more so on Russia (more about that in an instant). This "no words & only action" tactic is designed to maximize deterrence of hostile acts: since the Russians do not clearly spell out what they could do in retaliation, God only knows what they could do next! :-) On top of that, to maximize insecurity, the Russians only said that these were the measures agreed upon, but not when they would be introduced, partially or fully, and against whom. They also strongly implied that other measure were under consideration in the pipeline.

Second, the sanctions are wonderfully targeted. The Europeans have acted like spineless and brainless prostitutes in this entire business, they were opposed to sanctions from day 1, but they did not have the courage to tell that to Uncle Sam, so each time they ended up caving in. Russia's message to the EU is simple: you wanna be Uncle Sam's bitch? Pay the price! This embargo will especially hurt southern Europe (Spain, France, Italy, Greece) whose agricultural production will greatly suffer from it These countries also happen to be the weakest in the EU. By hitting them, Russia is maximizing the inevitable friction inside the EU over sanctions against Russia.

Third, not only will EU carriers suffer from much higher costs and flight times on the very important Europe to Asia route, but the Asian carriers will not, giving the latter a double competitive advantage. How is that for a way to reward one side while hurting the other? The EU got one Russian airline in trouble over its flights to Crimea (Dobrolet) and for that the entire EU airlines community could end being at a huge disadvantage vis-à-vis its Asian counterparts.

Fourth, Russia used these sanctions to do something vital for the Russian economy. Let me explain: after the collapse of the USSR the Russian agriculture was in disarray, and the Eltsin only made things worse. Russian farmers simply could not compete against advanced western agro-industrial concerns which benefited from huge economies of scale, from expensive and high-tech chemical and biological research, which had a full chain of production (often through large holdings), and a top quality marketing capability. The Russian agricultural sector badly, desperately, needed barriers and tariffs to be protected form the western capitalist giants and, instead, Russia voluntarily abided by the terms of the WTO and then eventually became member. Now Russia is using this total embargo to provide a crucially needed time for the Russian agriculture to invest and take up a much bigger share on the Russian market. Also, keep in mind that Russian products are GMO-free, and that they have much less preservatives, antibiotics, colors, taste enhancers, or pesticides. And since they are local, they don't need to be brought in by using the kind of refrigeration/preservation techniques which typically make products taste like cardboard. In other words, Russian agricultural products taste much better, but that is not enough to complete. This embargo now gives them a powerful boost to invest, develop and conquer market shares.

Fifth, there are 100 countries which did not vote with the US on Crimea. The Russians have already announced that these are the countries with which Russia will trade to get whatever products it cannot produce indigenously. A nice reward for standing up to Uncle Sam.

Sixth, small but sweet: did you notice that EU sanctions were introduced for 3 months only, "to be reviewed" later? By introducing a 12 months embargo Russia also sends a clear message: who do you think will benefit from this mess?

Seventh, it is plain wrong to calculate that EU country X was exporting for Y million dollars to Russia and to then conclude that the Russian embargo will cost Y million dollars to EU country X. Why is it wrong? Because the non-sale of these product with create a surplus which will then adversely affect the demand or, if the production is decreased, this will affect production costs (economies of scale). Conversely, for a hypothetical non-EU country Z a contract with Russia might mean enough cash to invest, modernize and become more competitive, not only in Russia, but on the world market, including the EU.

Eighth, the Baltic countries have played a particularly nasty role in the entire Ukrainian business and now some of their most profitable industries (such as fisheries), which were 90% dependent on Russia, will have to shut down. These countries are already a mess, but now they will hurt even more. Again, the message to them is simple: you wanna be Uncle Sam's bitch? Pay the price!

Ninth, and this is really important, what is happening is a gradual decoupling of Russia from the western economies. The West severed some of the financial, military and aerospace ties, Russia severed the monetary, agricultural and industrial ones. Keep in mind that the US/EU market is a sinking one, affected by deep systemic problems and huge social issues. In a way, the perfect comparison is the Titanic whose orchestra continued to play music while the sink was sinking. Well, Russia is like a passenger who is told that the Titanic's authorities have decided to disembark him at the next port. Well, gee, too bad, right?

Last, but most definitely not least, this trade-war, combined with the West's hysterical russophobia, is doing for Putin a better PR campaign than anything the Kremlin could have dreamed of. All his PR people need to tell the Russian population is the truth: "we did everything right, we played it exactly by the book, we did everything we could to deescalate this crisis and all we asked for was to please not allow the genocide of our people in Novorussia - and what was the West's response to that? An insane hate campaign, sanctions against us and unconditional support for thegenocidal Nazis in Kiev". Furthermore, as somebody who carefully follows the Russian media, I can tell you that what is taking place today feels a lot like, paraphrasing Clausewitz, the "a continuation of WWII, but by other means", in other words a struggle to the end between two regimes, two civilizations, which cannot coexist on the same planet and who are locked in struggle to death. In these circumstances, expect the Russian people to support Putin even more.

In other words, in a typical Judo move, Putin has used the momentum of the the West's Russia-basing and Putin-bashing campaign to his advantage across the board: Russia will benefit from this economically and politically. Far from being threatened by some kind of "nationalistic Maidan" this winter, Putin's regime is being strengthened by his handling of the crisis (his ratings are higher than ever before).

Yes, of course, the USA have shown they they have a very wide array of capabilities to hurt Russia, especially through a court system (in the US and EU) which is as subservient to the US deep state as the courts in the DPRK are to their own "Dear Leader" in Pyongyang. And the total loss of the Ukrainian market (for both imports and exports) will also hurt Russia. Temporarily. But in the long wrong, this situation is immensely profitable for Russia.

In the meantime, the Maindan is burning again, Andriy Parubiy has resigned, a the Ukies are shelling hospital and churches in Novorussia. What else is knew?

As for Europe, it is shell-shocked and furious. Frankly, my own Schadenfreude knows no bounds this morning. Let these arrogant non-entities like Van Rompuy, Catherine Ashton, Angela Merkel or José Manuel Barroso deal with the shitstorm their stupidity and spinelessness have created.

In the USA, Jen Psaki seems to be under the impression that the Astrakhan region is on the Ukrainian border, while the Russian Defense Ministry plans to "open special accounts in social networks and video hosting resources so that the US State Department and the Pentagon will be able to receive unbiased information about Russian army's actions".

Will all that be enough to suggest to the EU leaders that they have put their money on the wrong horse?

The Saker

[Magda Hassan]

In the meantime, the Maindan is burning again, Andriy Parubiy has resigned, a the Ukies are shelling hospital and churches in Novorussia. What else is knew?

Trouble in paradise? More schadenfruede for me when I see Kiev reacting in exactly the same way and using the same words to justify their actions as did Yanukovich did. Why is it fine for Kiev now but it wasn't fine for Kiev 6 months ago? And not an election in sight.

As for Europe, it is shell-shocked and furious. Frankly, my own Schadenfreude knows no bounds this morning. Let these arrogant non-entities like Van Rompuy, Catherine Ashton, Angela Merkel or José Manuel Barroso deal with the shitstorm their stupidity and spinelessness have created.

My schadenfreude is getting a big work out too. The Australian farmers are screaming. The farmers have just realised that their socialist agrarian party has been hijacked by neo-liberal zealots they are in coalition with not to mention US lapdogs. They are desperately looking for alternative markets to take the surplus they are now stuck with but given we have pissed off almost all of the neighbours we may end up giving it all away or it being turned into dog food. No doubt to be sold to the public as a great success when and if it happens. Given that Russia has already made agreements with over 100 other countries those alternative markets may already be taken.

[Paul Rigby]

Fresh evidence of how the West lured Ukraine into its orbit

The West is demonising President Putin when what set this crisis in motion were recklessly provocative moves to absorb Ukraine into the EU

By Christopher Booker

4:34PM BST 09 Aug 2014

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnew...orbit.html

How odd it has been to read all those accounts of Europe sleepwalking into war in the summer of 1914, and how such madness must never happen again, against the background of the most misrepresented major story of 2014 the gathering crisis between Russia and the West over Ukraine, as we watch developments in that very nasty civil war, with 20,000 Russian troops massing on the border.

For months the West has been demonising President Putin, with figures such as the Prince of Wales and Hillary Clinton comparing him with Hitler, oblivious to the fact that what set this crisis in motion were those recklessly provocative moves to absorb Ukraine into the EU.
There was never any way that this drive to suck the original cradle of Russian identity into the Brussels empire was not going to provoke Moscow to react not least due to the prospect that its only warm-water ports, in Crimea, might soon be taken over by Nato.

And still scarcely reported here have been the billions of dollars and euros the West has been more or less secretively pouring into Ukraine to promote the cause: not just to prop up its bankrupt government and banking system, but to fund scores of bogus "pro-European" groups making up what the EU calls "civil society".

When the European Commission told a journalist that, between 2004 and 2013, these groups had only been given €31 million, my co-author Richard North was soon reporting on his EU Referendum blog that the true figure, shown on the commission's own "Financial Transparency" website, was €496 million. The 200 front organisations receiving this colossal sum have such names as "Center for European Co-operation" or the "Donetsk Regional Public Organisation with Hope for the Future" (the very first page shows how many are in eastern Ukraine or Crimea, with their largely Russian populations).

One of my readers heard from a Ukrainian woman working in Britain that her husband back home earns €200 a month as an electrician, but is paid another €200 a month, from a German bank, to join demonstrations such as the one last March when hundreds of thousands many doubtless entirely sincere turned out in Kiev to chant "Europe, Europe" at Baroness Ashton, the EU's visiting "foreign minister".

However dangerous this crisis becomes, it is the West which has brought it about; and our hysterical vilifying of Russia is more reminiscent of that fateful mood in the summer of 1914 than we should find it comfortable to contemplate.

[Lauren Johnson]

From Pat Lang

"The West on the wrong path

In view of the events in Ukraine, the government and many media have switched from level-headed to agitated. The spectrum of opinions has been narrowed to the width of a sniper scope. The politics of escalation does not have a realistic goal and harms German interests.
…
Newspapers we thought to be all about thoughts and ideas now march in lock-step with politicians in their calls for sanctions against Russia's President Putin. Even the headlines betray an aggressive tension as is usually characteristic of hooligans when they 'support' their respective teams.

The Tagesspiegel: "Enough talk!" The FAZ: "Show strength". The Süddeutsche Zeitung: "Now or never." The Spiegel calls for an "End to cowardice": "Putin's web of lies, propaganda, and deception has been exposed. The wreckage of MH 17 is also the result of a crashed diplomacy."

Western politics and German media agree.

Every reflexive string of accusations results in the same outcome: in no time allegations and counter-allegations become so entangled that the facts become almost completely obscured.
…
Our purpose is to wipe off some of the foam that has formed on the debating mouths, to steal words from the mouths of both the rabble-rousers and the roused, and put new words there instead. One word that has become disused of late is this: realism."

I wholeheartedly agree with the general tenor of this rather remarkable Leitartikel. The Essay is available in German, English and Russian.

[B]#1 - Geography holds Europe hostage to US follies[/B]

The author is absolutely correct in observing that unlike the US, we have to be a little more serious in our relationship towards Russia and look beyond domestic political expedience. After all, we live here. The US have the luxury of distance from the mess it stirs up of late in Ukraine (or in the Middle East for that matter).

US trade with Ukraine or Russia is neglectable. They don't pay a price in the civil war in Ukraine either: The Ukrainians do the killing and the dying, and the US in the meanwhile merrily blames Putin for everything. More, the US will not for years poison their relations with an immediate neigbour (Alaska nobody in DC cares about anyway).

For Poland, the Batic States and Germany, there are immediate real life consequences of generating Russian hostility. Not only will we be less secure as a result of it, we will also pay for it economically, and pay for what?

The Handlesblatt article rightly points out that "If economic ties were maintained for mutual profit, then severing them will lead to mutual loss. Punishment and self-punishment are the same thing in this case."

So we are supposed to punish ourselves so the Obama administration can feel good about themselves and increase their electoral chances at home by pandering to latent US russophobic sentiments? True: Considering how mindlessly aggressive as their policy is, they cannot possibly be outhawked here.

[B]#2 - Let's assume Russia is on its knees. And then?[/B]

That last question is a very serious question that nobody in America is asking, let alone answering in a serious way. If anything, it is as if the US political scene and the court journalists look at this as fans cheering on a soccer match. Only that it isn't and we're talking about baiting a nuclear power.

If the US got Russia back on their knees again, as it was under the execrable drunken bum that was Jelzin, the US better prepare for a backlash. Russia not just Putin but whole of Russia - will never forgive that. No German in his right mind wants a hostile Russia to the east, bent on revenge. The US, thanks to the luxury of geographic isolation and a couple thousand nukes, can look more relaxed at this.

Also, it is beyond me how someone like McFaul was was at least nominally in a position to have learned something about Russia, can portray the days of misery and rampant looting that characterized the Jelzin era as anything but dystopic. Probably it was so much fun because he had been let in on the joke. The majority of Russians weren't.

Jelzin needed to do something profoundly undemocratic to push through US economic shock therapy - shoot up Moscow's parliament. The Jelzin era pretty much sucked unless your name was something like Chodorkowski. Russians knew it. A slogan like that "Putin gave Russia back its pride" would not have resonated if the Russians had shared McFaul's cheery view of how wonderful the Jelzin era was. [B]

#3 - Back to Ukraine - the German proposal for a settlement in Ukraine, and MH17[/B]

The German proposal for a settlement in Ukraine had the following elements:

• Russia will withdraw support for separatists
  
• Kiev will grant separatists devolved rights
  
• Ukraine will not enter NATO
  
• Russia will not block or interfere with Ukraines trade relations with the EU
  
• Russia offers long term agreement on gas supply and pricing
  
• Russia compensates for loss of rent for Sevastopol harbour until declaration of independence
  

This package was then or is now palatable for the US. Germany and Russia had made good progress on the deal. If it ever came back on the table again, the US will do their best to sabotage the offer at every turn: While we don't have an interest in the Ukraine crisis, they do.

The US, just like the right-wing radicals in the Ukrainian government had a clear incentive to stop that deal dead since it would deprive them of their splendid little crisis. And along came, fortuitously, the MH17 shootdown.

[B]#4 - Vowärts immer, rückwärts nimmer![/B]

That motto, first expressed by the late Erich Honecker has by now become the official motto of the US state department and indeed, this proud creed permeates US foreign policy over the last decade.

The Handelsblatt put it well when they referred to the American tendency for verbal and then also military escalation, isolation, demonization and attacking of enemies, and more often than not they are enemies of choice, choosen wilfully.

The US routinely climbed up this latter from blustering insult up to political paralysis or outright bombardment, only to see their efforts end in failure, and they just can't seem to be able to make their way down again (loss of face and all that). Apparently the way is the goal, which is why we see them do the same stupid thing again, and again, and again.

sanctions [on Russia] have become and end in themselves for the United States [and that] my outsider's impression is that the US foreign policy for Russia has been pretty much captured by doctrinaire anti-Russians in a diplomatic and military deep state that pretty much permeates and survives every incoming administration - See more at: http://www.conflictsforum.org/2014/ukrai...NtPYv.dpuf
[B]#5 - Method to the madness[/B]

Peter Lee is correct to say that sanctions on Russia

"have become and end in themselves for the United States [and that] my outsider's impression is that the US foreign policy for Russia has been pretty much captured by doctrinaire anti-Russians in a diplomatic and military deep state that pretty much permeates and survives every incoming administration"

The conflictsforum, in their comment The Risks of Strategic Incoherence observe something deeper at work:

"Perhaps the only area where there is clear US policy is on Ukraine, where the neo-con element within the US Administration has been haranguing Europeans to enact tougher sanctions on Russia (though Washington has not as EU politicians are beginning to complain explained to them why the penalties in question are required; or why they make strategic sense i.e. in possibly damaging EU businesses more than Russian ones).

The effect of this particular activism however has been no less dysfunctional as in cases where the Administration has opted for passivity (or succumbed to internal paralysis). The Administration efforts to undermine Angela Merkal's efforts to work with Putin towards a diplomatic solution of the Ukraine crisis (by urging Poroshenko to undertake yet more military action), its arm-twisting on sanctions and its brushing aside of German concerns about US spying have put a key alliance (that with Germany) in real jeopardy. It has split the EU too: with Germany, Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg and Slovenia favouring conciliation with Russia, a further camp' which inclines to the German line, and a much smaller block of opponents of Russia (Poland and the three Baltic countries in particular), who take the American line.
…
It is hard not to conclude that the US escalation against Russia (and against Putin personally) has more to do with domestic political tactics and lacks any deeper desire to try to understand the strategic risks inherent in allowing incoherence to dominate across a range of very volatile situations. Just to be clear, this is not to suggest that America or Europe should act more. They should not. But if it is thought easier' to let events take care of themselves, with little further understanding required they should not then be surprised at being surprised by events. The lacunae is deeper understanding. It is this omission that defines the quality of geo-political risk that we face now.

And what accounts for it? Why is it that so many highly dangerous issues the repeat firing-up of radical Sunni Islam, the proxy war in Ukraine, the conflicts in Syria and Iraq and the approaching deadline on the Iran negotiations and the repression in Gaza are being met by strategic incoherence? It is not that senior officials do not get it'. Many of them do: yet they seem sealed in an intellectual and political retort that renders them unable to take decisions, or to challenge worn out policy shibboleths.
...
Perhaps the only area where there is clear US policy is on Ukraine, where the neo-con element within the US Administration has been haranguing Europeans to enact tougher sanctions on Russia (though Washington has not as EU politicians are beginning to complain explained to them why the penalties in question are required; or why they make strategic sense i.e. in possibly damaging EU businesses more than Russian ones). The effect of this particular activism however has been no less dysfunctional as in cases where the Administration has opted for passivity (or succumbed to internal paralysis). The Administration efforts to undermine Angela Merkal's efforts to work with Putin towards a diplomatic solution of the Ukraine crisis (by urging Poroshenko to undertake yet more military action), its arm-twisting on sanctions and its brushing aside of German concerns about US spying have put a key alliance (that with Germany) in real jeopardy. It has split the EU too: with Germany, Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg and Slovenia favouring conciliation with Russia, a further camp' which inclines to the German line, and a much smaller block of opponents of Russia (Poland and the three Baltic countries in particular), who take the American line.

Here too we find a paradox: The prevalent western meme is that is that while western diplomatic sanctions against Russia have been treated with derision, the one thing that will severely cripple the Russian economy is America's unilateral sanction of a capital market embargo, which has been imposed on certain Russian businesses: Russian companies are facing $115 billion of debt repayment due over the next 12 months, and no Russian Eurobond issue has been successfully priced since Crimea. But as Bloomberg reports, the expectation that Russia's major corporations will be crippled may prove to be fanciful:

"Russian companies, facing $115 billion of debt due over the next 12 months, will have the funds even as bond markets shut because of the Ukraine crisis, according to Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings. Firms will have about $100 billion in cash and earnings at their disposal during the next 18 months, Moody's said in an analysis of 47 businesses. Almost all 55 companies examined by Fitch are "well placed" to withstand a closed refinancing market for the rest of 2014, it said in a note on 16 April. Banks have more than $20 billion in foreign currency to lend as the tensions prompted customers to convert their rouble savings", ZAO Raiffeisenbank said.

"The amount of cash on balances of Russian companies, committed credit lines from banks and the operating cash flows they will get is sufficient for the companies to comfortably service their liabilities," Denis Perevezentsev, an analyst at Moody's in Moscow, said by phone".

It is hard not to conclude that the US escalation against Russia (and against Putin personally) has more to do with domestic political tactics and lacks any deeper desire to try to understand the strategic risks inherent in allowing incoherence to dominate across a range of very volatile situations. Just to be clear, this is not to suggest that America or Europe should act more. They should not. But if it is thought easier' to let events take care of themselves, with little further understanding required they should not then be surprised at being surprised by events. The lacunae is deeper understanding. It is this omission that defines the quality of geo-political risk that we face now.

And what accounts for it? Why is it that so many highly dangerous issues the repeat firing-up of radical Sunni Islam, the proxy war in Ukraine, the conflicts in Syria and Iraq and the approaching deadline on the Iran negotiations and the repression in Gaza are being met by strategic incoherence? It is not that senior officials do not get it'. Many of them do: yet they seem sealed in an intellectual and political retort that renders them unable to take decisions, or to challenge worn out policy shibboleths.

- See more at: http://www.conflictsforum.org/2014/confl...WEmP9.dpuf
Perhaps the only area where there is clear US policy is on Ukraine, where the neo-con element within the US Administration has been haranguing Europeans to enact tougher sanctions on Russia (though Washington has not as EU politicians are beginning to complain explained to them why the penalties in question are required; or why they make strategic sense i.e. in possibly damaging EU businesses more than Russian ones).

The effect of this particular activism however has been no less dysfunctional as in cases where the Administration has opted for passivity (or succumbed to internal paralysis). The Administration efforts to undermine Angela Merkal's efforts to work with Putin towards a diplomatic solution of the Ukraine crisis (by urging Poroshenko to undertake yet more military action), its arm-twisting on sanctions and its brushing aside of German concerns about US spying have put a key alliance (that with Germany) in real jeopardy. It has split the EU too: with Germany, Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Luxembourg and Slovenia favouring conciliation with Russia, a further camp' which inclines to the German line, and a much smaller block of opponents of Russia (Poland and the three Baltic countries in particular), who take the American line.

Here too we find a paradox: The prevalent western meme is that is that while western diplomatic sanctions against Russia have been treated with derision, the one thing that will severely cripple the Russian economy is America's unilateral sanction of a capital market embargo, which has been imposed on certain Russian businesses: Russian companies are facing $115 billion of debt repayment due over the next 12 months, and no Russian Eurobond issue has been successfully priced since Crimea. But as Bloomberg reports, the expectation that Russia's major corporations will be crippled may prove to be fanciful:

"Russian companies, facing $115 billion of debt due over the next 12 months, will have the funds even as bond markets shut because of the Ukraine crisis, according to Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings. Firms will have about $100 billion in cash and earnings at their disposal during the next 18 months, Moody's said in an analysis of 47 businesses. Almost all 55 companies examined by Fitch are "well placed" to withstand a closed refinancing market for the rest of 2014, it said in a note on 16 April. Banks have more than $20 billion in foreign currency to lend as the tensions prompted customers to convert their rouble savings", ZAO Raiffeisenbank said.

"The amount of cash on balances of Russian companies, committed credit lines from banks and the operating cash flows they will get is sufficient for the companies to comfortably service their liabilities," Denis Perevezentsev, an analyst at Moody's in Moscow, said by phone".

It is hard not to conclude that the US escalation against Russia (and against Putin personally) has more to do with domestic political tactics and lacks any deeper desire to try to understand the strategic risks inherent in allowing incoherence to dominate across a range of very volatile situations. Just to be clear, this is not to suggest that America or Europe should act more. They should not. But if it is thought easier' to let events take care of themselves, with little further understanding required they should not then be surprised at being surprised by events. The lacunae is deeper understanding. It is this omission that defines the quality of geo-political risk that we face now.

And what accounts for it? Why is it that so many highly dangerous issues the repeat firing-up of radical Sunni Islam, the proxy war in Ukraine, the conflicts in Syria and Iraq and the approaching deadline on the Iran negotiations and the repression in Gaza are being met by strategic incoherence? It is not that senior officials do not get it'. Many of them do: yet they seem sealed in an intellectual and political retort that renders them unable to take decisions, or to challenge worn out policy shibboleths.

- See more at: http://www.conflictsforum.org/2014/confl...WEmP9.dpuf

The point here is that in neoliberal society there is no one who really manages political power. The economy regulates itself (through individuals maximizing their material self interest, which in aggregate, coalesce to maximize the welfare of society as a whole). Neo-liberals always seek to let these unseen market forces work unimpeded, so that they may yield the market verdict'. What we seem to be witnessing are the same technocratic' principles applied to foreign policy. In foreign policy, the dynamics of power are seen to yield their own rational market verdict' as power plays are "allowed to take care of themselves". The international market' of power plays, by extension, should be allowed to act out relatively unimpeded too."

I think they are both right and that these two things put together are among the driving factors in European and US foreign policy at the time. It apparently yet has to dawn on the Obamaites that it is foolhardy to let 'market dynamics' run their way in a game involving nukes.

Indeed. Why not roll dice for armageddon?

[Lauren Johnson]

from Russia Television

Moscow and Kiev have agreed on a humanitarian mission under the authority of the Red Cross, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated.

"With careful optimism, I can now say that, I think, all possible and impossible pretexts have been dismissed. I hope that in the very nearest future this humanitarian action will take place under the authority of the Red Cross," Lavrov said.

"We've agreed on all details with the Ukrainian leadership," the Foreign Minister declared.

He also expressed hope that "Western partners won't put a spoke in the wheel and will think about the people who are
badly in need of water and electricity," Lavrov said.

Russia, together with the International Red Cross Committee, is sending a humanitarian convoy to Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin told the head of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso, according to the president's press service.

Residential buildings in Shakhtyorsk, destroyed by a Ukrainian military artillery attack. (RIA Novosti)

"Attention was focused on the catastrophic consequences of the military operation conducted by the Kiev authorities in the south-eastern regions, and the necessity to urgently deliver humanitarian aid to the conflict zone," the statement said.

Foreign minister accused Washington, London and Berlin of a "blatant expression of cynicism" in thinking eastern Ukraine doesn't need humanitarian aid.

"If what the press services in London and Washington, and I think, Berlin, too, [say] - about the telephone contacts of the US, UK and German leaders - if it's true what was said, and in particular that all three leaders agreed there is no need for humanitarian aid to southeastern Ukraine, because all necessary measures are already being taken, then it's a blatant expression of cynicism," the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry said.

Hundreds of thousands of people have been left without water, electricity, mobile, and stationary communications for over a week. Constant deadly shellings have forced many to seek refuge in underground shelters, and 117,000 have been forcibly displaced within Ukraine, according to the latest UN figures. According to Moscow's data, 730,000 others have fled to Russia.

The building of an outpatient clinic destroyed in the Ukrainian army's artillery attack in Donetsk. (RIA Novosti/Mikhail Voskresenskiy)