The Most Important Error the FBI told the Warren Commission about the Rifle

[Drew Phipps]

I've no doubt that you could plot a "ballistic curve" that matches with Frazier's reported results. In fact, using my dusty calculus skills, I got an approximate solution for a muzzle velocity of 2700 FPS. Which, of course, is far too high to be a Carcano, but not out of the range for other weapons. It is also not a unique solution, as I had to choose a value for "drag" and I picked one that was a common one from a drop down menu. Mathematically, each possible value of drag would have a weight and muzzle velocity that would fit Frazier's curve.

Interesting fact: Frazier was the FBI ballistic expert for the MLK assassination. In that investigation, he matched the death bullet to the type of weapon recovered at the scene, but not to that actual rifle. It didn't matter in the end cause Percy Foreman pled his client to 99, or was it life?

More Interesting Frazier facts: Frazier testified as a defense witness in the trial of Louisiana v. Clay Shaw. In that testimony he said first that "Oswald's" rifle had a muzzle velocity of 1965 f/sec +- 50 f/sec. Later in the testimony, after having a chance to consult with "his" US Attorney, he corrected it back to the 2165 f/sec he told the Warren Commission. The reason this is important is that any significantly slower-firing "magic bullet" would mathematically not have possessed the kinetic energy to do all the damage attributed to it.

Bob, wanna try your ballistic calculator again with a muzzle velocity of 1965 fps, or even 1915 fps? If you can get a ballistic curve match on any velocity in that range then Frazier's tests might have been correct but he was required to perjure the muzzle velocity to get the magic bullet.

[Bob Prudhomme]

I've no doubt that you could plot a "ballistic curve" that matches with Frazier's reported results. In fact, using my dusty calculus skills, I got an approximate solution for a muzzle velocity of 2700 FPS. Which, of course, is far too high to be a Carcano, but not out of the range for other weapons. It is also not a unique solution, as I had to choose a value for "drag" and I picked one that was a common one from a drop down menu. Mathematically, each possible value of drag would have a weight and muzzle velocity that would fit Frazier's curve.

Interesting fact: Frazier was the FBI ballistic expert for the MLK assassination. In that investigation, he matched the death bullet to the type of weapon recovered at the scene, but not to that actual rifle. It didn't matter in the end cause Percy Foreman pled his client to 99, or was it life?

More Interesting Frazier facts: Frazier testified as a defense witness in the trial of Louisiana v. Clay Shaw. In that testimony he said first that "Oswald's" rifle had a muzzle velocity of 1965 f/sec +- 50 f/sec. Later in the testimony, after having a chance to consult with "his" US Attorney, he corrected it back to the 2165 f/sec he told the Warren Commission. The reason this is important is that any significantly slower-firing "magic bullet" would mathematically not have possessed the kinetic energy to do all the damage attributed to it.

Bob, wanna try your ballistic calculator again with a muzzle velocity of 1965 fps, or even 1915 fps? If you can get a ballistic curve match on any velocity in that range then Frazier's tests might have been correct but he was required to perjure the muzzle velocity to get the magic bullet.

Here are the results of a Carcano bullet travelling 1915 fps and zeroed at 4 yards. Zeroing at 4 yards will have the bullet impacting roughly 4 inches high of the point of aim at 15 yards.

[TABLE]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1915[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]-1.5[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1319[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]15[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1877[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]4.06[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.16[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.03[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1267[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.47[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]30[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1843[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]9.39[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.54[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.05[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1222[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.59[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]45[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1809[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]14.51[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.14[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.08[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1177[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.78[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]60[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1776[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]19.38[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.99[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.1[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1135[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.06[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]75[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1744[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]23.99[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]3.09[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.13[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1094[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.41[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]90[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1712[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]28.35[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]4.45[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.15[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1054[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.84[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]105[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1680[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]32.44[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]6.07[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.18[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1015[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2.36[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]120[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1649[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]36.26[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]7.97[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.21[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]978[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2.96[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]135[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1618[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]39.79[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]10.16[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.23[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]942[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]3.65[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Note that, at this reduced velocity, the bullet is still 30 inches high of the point of aim at 100 yards.

Here is an extreme reduction in velocity to 700 fps, which is a completely ridiculous velocity for a rifle bullet; especially one weighing 162 grains. A Carcano bullet travelling this slow leaving the muzzle would not be very stable and would also be dropping so quickly as to make it almost impossible to hit a target.

[TABLE]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]700[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]-1.5[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]176[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]15[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]697[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]3.98[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.94[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.07[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]175[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.45[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]30[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]694[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]7.87[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]3.48[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.13[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]173[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.53[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]45[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]691[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]10.11[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]7.66[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.2[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]172[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.65[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]60[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]688[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]10.71[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]13.48[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.26[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]170[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.82[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]75[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]685[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]9.66[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]20.96[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.33[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]169[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.04[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]90[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]682[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]6.94[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]30.1[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.39[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]167[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]105[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]679[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2.54[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]40.92[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.46[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]166[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.62[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]120[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]676[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]-3.54[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]53.43[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.53[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]164[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]1.98[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]135[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]673[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]-11.33[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]67.64[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.59[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]163[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2.4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]150[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]670[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]-20.83[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]83.56[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.66[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]161[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]2.86[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]165[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]667[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]-32.05[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]101.21[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.73[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]160[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]3.37[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]180[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]665[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]-45.02[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]120.6[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]0.79[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]159[/TD]
[TD="width: 50, align: right"]3.92[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

This velocity does, though, allow a bullet impacting a target 4 inches high of the point of aim at 15 yards to be impacting a target 4-5 inches high of the point of aim at 100 yards.

Once again, this is in direct conflict with Frazier's reported muzzle velocities of 2165 and 1965 fps.

[Drew Phipps]

We need to have a look at the actual targets. Especially the back sides of the target. Wonder if the actual targets are in the archives, or if just photos of the targets are there.

700 fps does seem mighty slow. You might be able to spot such a bullet on the zapruder film, leisurely making its way from JFK to JC. maybe that explains the delay between JFK's reaction and JC's...

[Bob Prudhomme]

We need to have a look at the actual targets. Especially the back sides of the target. Wonder if the actual targets are in the archives, or if just photos of the targets are there.

700 fps does seem mighty slow. You might be able to spot such a bullet on the zapruder film, leisurely making its way from JFK to JC. maybe that explains the delay between JFK's reaction and JC's...

Yes, 700 fps is a ridiculous velocity to even consider. I'm not even sure, with the small amount of propellant required to make a Carcano bullet travel this slowly, that the bullet would even make it all the way through the barrel and its riflings.

Many rimfire cartridges for .22 rifles will give a higher muzzle velocity than this.

[Bob Prudhomme]

I haven't told you everything about Frazier's shenanigans, Drew. I was saving this one for when things got a bit slow here.

Unbeknownst to our firearms expert, SA Robert Frazier, the greatest gift the conspirators gave to ballistics researchers was to supply a rifle with a side mounted scope as the assassination weapon. The beauty of the side mounted scope is that you will always know where your bullet is impacting at the muzzle of the rifle, simply by measuring the lateral distance from the centreline of the scope to the centreline of the rifle barrel. Once you have this number, plus the data of where the bullets are impacting (right or left of the point of aim) at a close target, say, 15 yards or so, you can mathematically deduce how far left or right of the point of aim the bullets will impact at any yardage further down range.

This is the great disadvantage of a side mounted scope, as opposed to a scope mounted directly over the barrel. While the top mounted scope will always be aligned laterally with its barrel, right out to infinity, the side mounted scope makes the bullet begin its journey, on a converging path, at least one inch to the right. This also explains why it is so hard to sight in a side mounted scope, and why I seriously doubt Oswald would have been capable of performing this task.

Let's say the scope was one inch to the left of the barrel and zeroed at 100 yards. This means the bullet path and line of sight will begin one inch apart and cross at 100 yards. The bullets will impact to the right of the line of sight on a converging course up to 100 yards and, after 100 yards, the bullets will impact to the left of the target; impacting progressively further left as the range increases.

I don't know how we're going to measure the distance between scope and barrel on the assassination rifle but I figured you are the guy to ask, Drew. Think you could work your pixellation magic and produce a measurement?

[Drew Phipps]

Think I know where you're going with this one, not even a "ballistics" problem (in the Newtonian sense) really as the sideways horizontal component of the velocity of the bullet wouldn't change much over time, unlike the vertical component.

I'll see about finding a rear view picture of the rifle with something of a scale in it. I have the rear view pic from this thread, but it doesn't have any "rulers" in it, unless maybe you can tell me the exact diameter of the scope at the eyepiece?

[Bob Prudhomme]

Think I know where you're going with this one, not even a "ballistics" problem (in the Newtonian sense) really as the sideways horizontal component of the velocity of the bullet wouldn't change much over time, unlike the vertical component.

I'll see about finding a rear view picture of the rifle with something of a scale in it. I have the rear view pic from this thread, but it doesn't have any "rulers" in it, unless maybe you can tell me the exact diameter of the scope at the eyepiece?

Well, the 4x18 scope had an objective lens diameter of 18 mm, meaning that the forward end of the scope, where the light entered, was at least 18 mm in diameter. Considering that the metal tube holding the lens is often very thin materiel on these small scopes, I'd bet the outside diameter of the forward tube, at its widest, would be about 3/4".

P.S. I was looking again at the rear view photo I posted earlier in this thread, plus the one above it, and I am unsure if they are photos depicting an accurate replica of C2766. Here is a top view photo that I know was taken of C2766.

[Bob Prudhomme]

I think I got lucky. I found a site where a guy is discussing building a replica of the assassination rifle. The diameter of the ocular (rear) end of the scope, or eyepiece, is given as 1.062". It's hard to tell from the photos if both ends of the scope are the same diameter, but I thought this would be a useful measurement.

Schematic of a rifle scope, showing objective lens on extreme right:

[Drew Phipps]

Sorry for the delay there. I keep getting different numbers for horizontal separation at different points along the length of the tube. It could be that the ocular end of the scope is significantly farther away from the camera lens than the objective end, and hence, it looks smaller. Or it could be measurably crooked (about a millimeter from one end to the other).

Anyhow, at the objective end (assuming an 18 mm opening) the horizontal separation of the scope center from the barrel center appears to be 15.6 mm or .61 inches

[Bob Prudhomme]

Sorry for the delay there. I keep getting different numbers for horizontal separation at different points along the length of the tube. It could be that the ocular end of the scope is significantly farther away from the camera lens than the objective end, and hence, it looks smaller. Or it could be measurably crooked (about a millimeter from one end to the other).

Anyhow, at the objective end (assuming an 18 mm opening) the horizontal separation of the scope center from the barrel center appears to be 15.6 mm or .61 inches

Thanks, Drew. Is this taking into account the measurement I found for diameter of the ocular end of the scope of 1.062 inches?