The Battle for Novorussiya

[Lauren Johnson]

Since the imposition of Minsk II upon the DLPR, two things have not changed: the Ukies have continued to shell cities and the mostly the DNR continues to announce how many times they have been attacked during the past 24 hours. Today's announcement is that 800 shells hit Donetsk and that is the heaviest since ... whenever.

Actually, I should say that the DNR voluntarily withdrew from Shirokino, just outside of Mariupol, as a gesture of goodwill. The Azov Battalion quickly occupied it.
The next piece of stunning strategy has been the announcement that the DNR would voluntarily comply with Minsk II. So I was mistaken to say nothing has changed.

And now we have the Ukies moving large forces towards the front lines and stepping up the shelling. It looks like the long expected Summer offensive is about to begin. Putin has called a meeting of their security council to discuss the shelling.

Does Russia have Plan B? I suspect the answer is "No." The Kremlin most likely will want to wait out the offensive by giving enough aid to prevent the Donbass from being overrun. Lot's of separatists and Ukrainians will die. And then Minsk III.

[Paul Rigby]

Strelkov: UAF will attack when Putin is in New York

http://fortruss.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/s...in-is.html

September 2, 2015

Rusvesna

Translated by Kristina Rus

Strelkov: urgent about the military situation UAF is almost finished concentrating the forces to attack

Ex-defense Minister of Donetsk People's Republic Igor Strelkov gave a brief forecast of the military situation on the basis of personal analysis of available data.

Currently Ukrainian army is almost finished concentrating forces for the planned offensive.

At the sites selected for the direction of the main strike (to the south of Donetsk), their superiority over the opposing units of NAF is estimated as 5-fold. Hidden behind a deeply layered system of defence, UAF formation has a distinct offensive configuration.

At the front, exploration of the positions of LDPR army is actively underway. Moreover, it is conducted by professional scout groups (presumably PMCs). The number of drones and tools of electronic warfare involved by the ukro-military is impressive. At the front, considerable reserves of ammunition for all types of weapons are concentrated.

Available UAF forces are enough to defeat the opposing "corps of the people's militia" in a week or two, and already in the first day of the attack profound breakthroughs with access to rear communications can be achieved.

The offensive can have a "general" character (aimed at accessing the border with Russia throughout its entire length and subsequent total destruction of the republics), and limited, whose goal may be the seizure of the southern part of DPR and vital infrastructure, without which even a partial economic autonomy of Donbass will be impossible.

A full-scale assault should be expected before the muddy fall season and, thus, UAF has no more than a month and a half left.

And taking into account the need not only to begin, but to complete the main operation before the onset of autumn rasputitsa [muddy season - rus.], the start date is limited by the range of September 20-25. If the offensive will not begin in the specified period, with high probability it will be possible to predict the freezing of the existing status quo before the onset of winter frost.

However, the postponement of the operation is possible, but unlikely, as the deteriorating economic and political situation of the Kiev junta does not guarantee the opportunity to gather an equally powerful group to attack six months later.

The most suitable time for attack (putting yourself in the enemy's shoes) appears to be the time of the visit of Vladimir Putin to New York to the session of the UN General Assembly (20th of September) this way the effect of massive pressure from the so-called "international community" at the moment of making a strategic decision about the provision of or failure to render military aid to LDPR, or on the extent of the aid, can be achieved.

Let me remind you that the "War of 08.08.08", and the decisive events of the "Revolution of 'Gidnost' " were made at a time when Vladimir Putin was outside of Moscow (in China and at the Sochi Olympics).

[Paul Rigby]

SITREP: grenade attack in Kiev a US PSYOP?

http://thesaker.is/sitrep-grenade-attack...-us-psyop/

It did not take the Ukrainian security services, which are usually not known for their competence, very long to identify the person who tossed the combat grenade at the security forces guarding the Duma: his name is Igor Gumeniuk.

The official version goes like this: Igor Gumeniuk is a member of the Svoboda Party of Oleg Tiagnibok and a solider of the "Sech" death squad.

This proud Ukrainian patriot had a page in the Russian equivalent of Facebook (Vkontakte) where he posted photos of himself as a formidable nationalist warrior and some of his original "artwork", including two Russian-made Makarov pistols and some bullets arranged in the form of a Swastika. A true intellectual indeed.

So yes, he is perfect for the job and he was found in a record time.

Does anybody else get a weird feeling while reading all this?

Let's think about the cui bono thing again and begin by setting the context.

Yesterday the Ukrainian Rada was debating a completely meaningless proposal by Poroshenko which only pretended to implement the Minsk-2 Agreement (M2A) while in reality completely ignoring all the key aspects of this agreement, which include a special status for the Donbass negotiated and drafted jointly with the representatives of Novorussia. This proposal was a crude fake, an empty pseudo-effort at decentralization.

And while the Rada was debating this non-proposal a picture perfect Nazi tosses a grenade and kills three security officers. And today, one of the craziest of crazies, Oleg Liashko, has announced that his Radical party was leaving the government coalition and was joining the opposition.

Scary stuff, no? Don't you get the feeling that "Poroshenko the Moderate" is about to get overthrown by some really scary Nazis?!

Exactly.

Except that even after the departure of Liashko's party Poroshenko supporters still control the Rada (they have enough voices for that). Except that as terrorists go, Mr. Gumeniuk appears to be almost too perfect of a Nazi freak. Except that the SBU apparently had him arrested almost immediately. Since when is the SBU so fast?

Remember how Eltsin used the Pamiats Party and, later, Zhirinovksy as a bogeyman? Remember how the West was told that if something happened to Eltsin those "extremists" would seize power? Even Putin played that little game with Zhirinovsky, at least for a little while. I think that exactly the same is happening in the Nazi occupied Ukraine were the Ukronazi freaks of Svoboda and the Radical Party serve to make the Nazis in power look comparatively sane.

The regime or, should I say, its US handlers, has decided to give Poroshenko a way out of M2A by dangling in front of us the scary specter of a "real Nazi" takeover in the Ukraine (as opposed, I suppose, to the "not quite real Nazi" or "nice Nazi" regime currently in power): "look at how hard Poroshenko tries and look at how evil his enemies are!! Poor Poroshenko, all he wants is peace and love, and those bad Nazis are now openly threatening him!!"

You know what? Considering how dangerous these extremists are, Poroshenko might not have any other option left to him but to impose even harsher security measures against any dissenters and opponents. To "save democracy", of course.

This is all nonsense, of course a crude spectacle played out to "excuse" Poroshenko for his non-compliance with M2A and a good way to prepare for the next elections by terrorizing the poor Ukrainians with a real bloodbath should they not vote for Poroshenko.

But this is all a smokescreen. Poroshenko still has the full backing of Uncle Sam and that means that he is in full control of the (US-run) security services. If anything, the Rada attack yesterday and today's revolt by Liashko only strengthen Poroshenko's grip on the country. I don't know about you but to me this all stinks of a typical US Psyop.

The Saker

[Paul Rigby]

[video=youtube_share;D9jkawkeVvA]http://youtu.be/D9jkawkeVvA[/video]

[Lauren Johnson]

Despite the fact that Minsk II has been dead in the water for months, the Kremlin continues to push forward, full speed ahead. Now Lavrov has announced that the breakaway republics are ready to hold elections under Ukrainian law. Any alternative voices in DLPR's have been silenced in various ways -- amazing how Mozgovoy was assassinated by a Ukrainian hit squad deep who somehow knew his route, set up an ambush, and then escape. There's speculation that after the so-called election, DLPR will hold a referendum asking to be annexed by the RF. So far, I think that the Kremlin wants to be done with it the DPLR once and for all. They always were a headache; they were told to hold off on resistance to Kiev. And now they must submit. Lots of people disagree with this view.

At any rate, Mark Sloboda has this to say:

Does the ‪#‎Kremlin‬ not realize that holding elections in ‪#‎Donbass‬ under‪#‎Ukrainian‬ "law" per ‪#‎Minsk2‬, as it stands now, means:1. UNA-UNSO and Right Sector fascists are legit political parties
2. All communist parties are completely banned
3. Accepting the "lustration" of anyone who served in last legitimately elected government of ‪#‎Ukraine‬
4. As no amnesty has been agreed, as it should have been per #MInsk2, that current leaders of Donbass are "terrorists" and cannot participate
5. Basically accepting all laws and executive actions taken by Putsch regime since seizing power as legitimate
Yes, I suppose they must realize all that...

[Paul Rigby]

US Seeking Dissolution Of Ukraine, Splitting Apart Nation Patrushev

http://novorossia.today/us-seeking-disso...patrushev/

Kiev should not wait for military assistance from the US, as Washington does not need success of Ukraine in that sphere or in the economy, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev said on Tuesday.

"As for military assistance to Ukraine, I believe it should not reckon on it," he told reporters. "Washington does not need military successes of Ukraine or economic prosperity of the country," he added.

"The war unleashed by Kiev gives Washington a possibility to radically influence the policy of European Union countries, demonstrating its exclusiveness in the settlement of any issues in any region of the globe," the secretary of the Russian Security Council said.

Thus, the White House "underlines Europe's dependence in making decisions on the international agenda, while through sanctions it attempts to break down Russia, which pursues an independent domestic and foreign policy," he added.

US seeking dissolution of Ukraine through splitting nations

Patrushev noted that the United States' true goal is to split peoples living in Ukraine which will lead to the country's breakup into several parts.

"The goal of Washington's policy is to destroy the unity of the Russian and Ukrainian peoples and also divide peoples living in Ukraine igniting nationalist mood against the ethnic groups Russians, Romanians, Hungarians, Poles and others, what may result in Ukraine's breakup into several parts," Patrushev said.
He stressed that the US has "rich experience in the issues of destroying unified states," citing as example the former Yugoslavia, in the western Balkans, which broke up into six countries in the 1990s.

"The multi-ethnic state, which used to be powerful, is today split into several small countries that cannot conduct independent foreign policy," Patrushev said.

"Washington attempts to take similar steps also in North Africa and the Middle East," he added.

Kiev may use any pretext to sabotage Minsk agreements

According to the official, Kiev may use any pretext to continue to sabotage the Minsk-2 package on Ukrainian settlement.

"I think that [Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko] is hushing up a fourth scenario of developments, under which Kiev will sabotage the implementation of the Minsk agreements using any pretext for that," he told journalists.

Patrushev cited the Ukrainian president as saying that some political forces were suggesting three scenarios of the development of the situation in south-eastern Ukraine. The first one provided for the liberation' of Donbas to be followed by a campaign against Moscow. The second one was to accept that Ukraine had lost Donbas, and the third one was to completely implement the Minsk agreements. "I don't think it is worth dwelling on why all the three are unrealistic," Patrushev said.

"The current situation in south-eastern Ukraine demonstrates that official Kiev is not going to recognize the DPR and LPR . It repeatedly violates the Minsk agreements, playing footsie to anti-Russian moods, flirting with Ukrainian neo-Nazis supported by Washington," he said.

The Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine comprising senior representatives from Russia, Ukraine and the European security watchdog OSCE on February 12, 2015, signed a 13-point Package of Measures to fulfill the September 2014 Minsk agreements. The package was agreed with the leaders of the Normandy Four, namely Russia, Germany, France and Ukraine).

The Package of Measures, known as Minsk-2, envisaged a ceasefire between Ukrainian government forces and the people's armed forces of the republic in Donetsk and Luhansk starting from February 15 and subsequent withdrawal of heavy weapons from the line of engagement. The deal also laid out a roadmap for a lasting settlement in Ukraine, including local elections and constitutional reform to give more autonomy to the war-torn eastern regions.

[David Guyatt]

I guess the US should be careful what it sows. Splitting a nation into ethnic regions for purposes of hegemonic control. But with such a diverse ethnic citizenry might it be subject to the same thing?

Maybe that's why Homeland Security bought 1.6 billion rounds of ammunition stockpiled?

[David Guyatt]

Ukraine's Poroshenko bans 400 western journalists. Bloody hilarious. I almost fell off my chair this morning. The west's propaganda mules are now up in arms at the nerve of Prorshenko to kick them in the balls after the huge free ride they've given him this last 18 months.

::coffeesplutter::

From the Gruniad:

Ukraine bans journalists who 'threaten national interests' from country

BBC journalists Steve Rosenberg and Emma Wells sanctioned by president Petro Poroshenko, along with Russian state media channels
[URL="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/16/ukraine-president-bans-journalists-from-country#img-1"]
[/URL] Petro Poroshenko responded to the rebels' plan to hold local elections by banning journalists linked to the crisis. Photograph: Vitaliy Holovin/Demotix/CorbisAlec Luhn in Moscow
Wednesday 16 September 2015 21.33 BSTLast modified on Thursday 17 September 201508.54 BST

President Petro Poroshenko has banned two BBC correspondents from Ukrainealong with many Russian journalists and public figures.
The long-serving BBC Moscow correspondent Steve Rosenberg and producer Emma Wells have been barred from entering the country, according to a list published on the presidential website on Wednesday. The decree says those listed were banned for one year for being a "threat to national interests" or promoting "terrorist activities".
BBC cameraman Anton Chicherov was also banned, along with Spanish journalists Antonio Pampliega and Ángel Sastre, who went missing, presumed kidnapped, in Syria in July.
The list targeted people involved in Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and the aggression in eastern Ukraine, Poroshenko said, referring to the conflict with Russia-backed rebels that has continued in certain hotspots this year despite a February ceasefire.
Andrew Roy, the BBC's foreign editor, said: "This is a shameful attack on media freedom. These sanctions are completely inappropriate and inexplicable measures to take against BBC journalists who are reporting the situation in Ukraine impartially and objectively and we call on the Ukrainian government to remove their names from this list immediately.'
The reason for the BBC correspondents' ban was not clear, but media coverage of the conflict with the rebels whom the authorities and local media often call "terrorists" has been a sensitive subject.
Russian television has covered the Ukrainian crisis in a negative light, frequently referring to the new Kiev government as a "fascist junta", while international media has focused on civilian casualties and the use of cluster munitions in populated areas by both sides.
According to the United Nations, more than 6,500 people, the majority of them civilians, have been killed in the conflict, but the real figure is likely to be higher. The new list expands sanctions adopted earlier this month and includes more than 400 people and 90 organisations.
Poroshenko announced the new round of sanctions in response to the rebels' plan to hold local elections in October and November in territory they control. "This adventurism and irresponsible decision requires our exact, coordinated reaction to the threat that has been created to the Minsk (peace) agreements," he said at the time.
Among the Russians sanctioned were Dmitry Kiselyov, a television host known for his anti-western statements, who is also barred from entering the European Union. The major Russian state news channels Rossiya-24, Channel One and NTV have all been banned.
Defence minister Sergei Shoigu, parliamentary speaker Sergei Naryshkin and foreign affairs committee head Alexei Pushkov were among the Russian officials who were banned, as well as Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of the Chechnya republic.
Others include Activist Alexander Brod, a member of the presidential human rights council and director of the Moscow Human Rights Bureau, and journalists and businesspeople from Israel, the United States and several other countries.
French actor Gerard Depardieu was banned from Ukraine for his statements in support of Russian president Vladimir Putin and singer Iosif Kobzon, who is banned from the EU, has also been included in the new ban.
Poroshenko said the new sanctions would "strengthen the defences not only of Ukraine but of Europe as a whole, because a war is going on here".

[Magda Hassan]

Yes I had to laugh at them too. All that work they did for him and what gratitude does he show? Wonder if their coverage will change now?

[Paul Rigby]

Vladislav Surkov no longer in charge of the Donbass

http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2454193.html

Zot'ev writes that Surkov has been removed from the Donbass. As we know from our own sources, the Kremlin decided to remove Vladislav Surkov from his role as informal mentor of the fledgling republics of the LC and DNR.

All of Surkov's people Surkov have been withdrawn from the territory of the Republic, and the "Fund for local associations of Donbass" structure, through which Vladislav Yurevich controlled not only the delivery of humanitarian assistance, but also the restoration of infrastructure of the Republic, dissolved, and will soon be eliminated.

The departure of Surkov connected with the changing priorities of the Government of the Russian Federation. In the near future of the republic is waiting for the reformatting of the administrations. The first public sign of such changes in the situation came with the arrest of high-ranking officials in the LC, suspected of having links with the Ukrainian oligarchs.

It was then that Surkov's network in Lugansk was attacked by the local security forces, employees of the MGB and MVD LC, who actually had a velvet revolution and strengthened their position, separate from the civil administration, and did it thanks to the support in the higher echelons of power in Russia. Most likely, with the departure of Surkov. the security forces in the DNI and LC will become dominant.

Alex Zot'ev http://cassad.net/vazhnoe/19958-vladisla v-surkov-bolshe-ne-kuriruet-donbass.html - zinc

PS. If so (practice management processes in Donbass repeatedly gave examples where decisions have changed in the short term to the contrary), then it is in my opinion a good sign. Not necessarily, but it is possible that changes in the mill process operators in the Donbas is effectively connected with the recent corruption scandal in the leadership of the LC, which of course is not only connected with the antics of Lyamina (arrested before the New Year) and Kurchenko (oligarch prohibited business activities in the DNI and LC), but also to the activities of a number of other persons who were patrons not only in the LC or Ukraine but also in Russia.

Not a guarantee that the Russian hammer is about to descend upon the CIA's Ukrainian thugs, but an essential prelude.