"There are three sorts of conspiracy: by the people who complain, by the people who write, by the people who take action. There is nothing to fear from the first group, the two others are more dangerous; but the police have to be part of all three,"
3) Heavy shelling of civilian areas, especially Gorlovka with many casualties.
4) Cassad speculates there could be a strong attack on an area where there is relatively weak defense, possibly Ellenkova, just south of Donetsk. The purpose would be to capitalize on the concentrations of troops in the Debalstevo boiler.
5) Despite all the rumors of large numbers of surrendering AFU troops, this really does not seem to be the case as far as I can tell.
"We'll know our disinformation campaign is complete when everything the American public believes is false." --William J. Casey, D.C.I
"We will lead every revolution against us." --Theodore Herzl
Quote:The Chief of Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces, General Viktor Muzhenko, is saying, in that news-report, which is dated on Thursday January 29th, that the only Russian citizens who are fighting in the contested region, are residents in that region, or of Ukraine, and also some Russian citizens (and this does not deny that perhaps some of other countries' citizens are fighting there, inasmuch as American mercenaries have already been noted to have been participating on the Ukrainian Government's side), who "are members of illegal armed groups," meaning fighters who are not paid by any government, but instead are just "individual citizens" (as opposed to foreign-government-paid ones). General Muzhenko also says, emphatically, that the "Ukrainian army is not fighting with the regular units of the Russian army."In other words: He is explicitly and clearly denying the very basis for the EU's sanctions against Russia, and for the U.S.'s sanctions against Russia: all of the sanctions against Russia are based on the falsehood that Ukraine is fighting against "the regular units of the Russian army" i.e., against the Russian-Government-controlled-and-trained fighting forces.The allegation to the effect that Ukraine is instead fighting against "regular units of the Russian army" is the allegation that Vladimir Putin's Russia has invaded Ukraine, and it is the entire basis for the economic sanctions that are in force against Russia.Those sanctions should therefore be immediately removed, with apology, and with compensation being paid to all individuals who have been suffering them; and it is therefore incumbent upon the Russian Government to pursue, through all legally available channels, restitution, plus damages, against the perpetrators of that dangerous fraud and the news reports have already made clear precisely whom those persons are, who have asserted, as public officials, what can only be considered to be major libel.Otherwise, Ukraine's top general should be fired, for asserting what he has just asserted.If what General Muzhenko says is true, then he is a hero for having risked his entire career by having gone public with this courageous statement. And, if what he says is false, then he has no place heading Ukraine's military.Investigative historian Eric Zuesse is the author, most recently, of They're Not Even Close: The Democratic vs. Republican Economic Records, 1910-2010, and of CHRIST'S VENTRILOQUISTS: The Event that Created Christianity.
The shadow is a moral problem that challenges the whole ego-personality, for no one can become conscious of the shadow without considerable moral effort. To become conscious of it involves recognizing the dark aspects of the personality as present and real. This act is the essential condition for any kind of self-knowledge.
The DNR portion of Novorussiya has announced that there will be a general mobilization to call up 100,000 men. I read this that there is a recognition of the heavy casualties that are being exacted on their military. It is now about at a 1:1 ratio. It was about 3:1 but that included the slaughter at the airport. Now that NAF is trying to take defended positions, the cost will be much greater. Obviously, the NAF has not been surrendering in mass.
"We'll know our disinformation campaign is complete when everything the American public believes is false." --William J. Casey, D.C.I
"We will lead every revolution against us." --Theodore Herzl
This village is just a few kilometers from Debalstevo. Apparently, the UAF agreed to a 3 hour ceasefire to allow the evacuation of the inhabitants. Just heart breaking.
The UAF has been pursuing a cease fire. The NAF has been taking a hard line with the approval of the Kremlin.
"We'll know our disinformation campaign is complete when everything the American public believes is false." --William J. Casey, D.C.I
"We will lead every revolution against us." --Theodore Herzl
Update: shelling of Donetsk continues raise in intensity. Between 10 and 20 people a day are killed. Pictures? Body parts. Meat. The pictures of wounds from phosphorus burns are hideous.
There's lots of news on the diplomatic front. When our guys start getting themselves stuck, the calls for a cease fire come out, and Russia is right there with diplomatic proposals. Hopefully, they won't sell out Donbass like last September.
Quote:The establishment of the fire control over the M-103 road still doesn't imply that a fully fledged "cauldron" has been formed, but even what has been achieved resulted in diplomatic consequences. The capture of Uglegorsk and the NAF reaching the critically dangerous distance to the crucial supply line not just triggered a serious operational crisis for the Ukrainian army, which it tries like it did before to resolve by local counter-attacks that don't change difficult operational situation for the junta. Besides this the "sudden" activity of the OSCE and the UN in the business of stopping the NAF offensive on Debalcevo and the interception of the single road that can be used both to evacuate civilians and for removing the units of Ukrainian army in the case of making the decision to abandon the "foothold". In this respect we can see how the fighting for obscure settlements and numerically labeled high points may be reflected in big politics, when the dangerously narrowed bottleneck of the Debalcevo protrusion forced such characters as Kerry, Merkel, and Hollande to take off their familiar spots. Difficult, bloody work by the NAF fighters on liberating their native land lies behind their hasty voyages.
The fighting in the area of Troitskoye, Krasnyi Pakhar, Sanzharovka, Chernukhino, Debalcevo certainly don't lead to the disintegration of the junta defense or to the pushing back of the NAF. What's most important: the junta cannot fix the dangerous configuration of the front that emerged in the bottleneck in the area of Logvinovo. The KIAs and the burned armor, which started to show up in open access increasingly more often lately, show the fierce nature of defensive fighting carried out by the junta and also the determination of the NAF to gnaw through this defense. Of course, both sides pay for this with quite serious losses. The junta has enough forces to hold the walls of the "foothold" for now, but it doesn't heave enough forces to liquidate the treat for the crucial road or to recapture Uglegorsk.
It is quite obvious that the order of abandoning Debalcevo won't be given even due to strictly military reasons, the city will be held to the last, gradually abandoning the positions to the east and south-east from Debalcevo if needed. What's also remarkable is that the two heavy battalion-tactical groups that stand in the area of Artyomovsk are still not engaged (1 group was engaged in fighting in the area of Popasnaya + up to a battalion of infantry and 25-30 armored vehicles were redeployed under Troitskoye).
This is in essence the crucial reserve that the junta holds for the case when the read will actually be fully cut and an unblocking strike will be required to the south-west of Svetlodarsk for the forces to exit the encirclement. Also these forces may be used for mitigating a possible breakthrough of the NAF in the area of Popasnaya (if the city will be actually captured, although at this time the interception of the M-103 road appears to be more probable than capturing Popasnaya).
A temporary "cease-fire" will indeed happen in the area of Debalcevo in the coming days for the civilians to exit the battle zone (either to the territory of the DPR or to Artyomovsk through Svetlodarsk). Our forces are engaged in informational and propaganda work on decomposing the junta military in the area of Debalcevo, offering them to abandon their positions and depart towards Svetlodarsk and further on. In principle from our side there is certain understanding that a complete success wasn't reached and it is easier to squeeze the junta forces out by intercepting their supplies and achieving their decomposition rather than wasting own forces in many-day fighting for fortified positions, which will lead to serious destruction of Debalcevo and adjacent areas. But because the junta isn't going to depart in good faith, then there's no way to escape the fighting. Of course, if the encirclement will actually happen, then the junta military will be finished off just like in the summer on all severity and without mercy. So before the possible escalation of the fighting for Debalcevo it is best to remove the civilians from there in order to avoid repeating the situation with Uglegorsk, when heavy fighting unfolded in the town itself and quite a few civilians were indeed killed.
In this respect the visit by Merkel and Hollande to Moscow may theoretically change something and the war may stop on its current lines, but it is more likely that the fighting will continue and their intensity will increase, so Debalcevo and neighboring settlements are due for very rough times.
From The Saker: Danger level is high for Debalstevo evacuees
Quote:The Novorussian and the junta have agreed to a cease-fire to allow the civilian population to leave Debaltsevo. In theory, each civilian will get to chose whether he/she wants to be evacuated to Novorussia or to the Nazi-occupied Ukraine. The convoy of refugees will be escorted by senior OSCE officials. Both sides to the conflict have pledged not to open fire during the time needed for this operation. Now consider this: 1) The only thing protecting the junta forces are, precisely, these civilians. If these civilians leave, then Debaltsevo will turn into Saur Mogila. Until now, the Novorussians have advanced rather slowly precisely because they could not use the full power of their artillery to soften up the well dug-in junta forces. But thanks to the Voentorg, the Novorussians now have plenty of firepower now and if they decide to really open up upon the junta forces the latter will suffer the same devastating consequences as their (now dead) colleagues in Saur Mogila. Everybody understands that. 2) Tonight the junta has used white phosphorus again, and in the recent days they have used both ballistic missiles and cluster munitions. Why this sudden concern with the Debaltsevo civilians (whom the Nazis consider as "bugs" anyway)? Does anybody really believe that the Nazi freaks in Kiev care for Novorussian civilians?! 3) Kerry, Hollande and Merkel were in Kiev today. The latter two will be in Moscow tomorrow. In Germany, the Munich Security Conference is meeting. NATO is still claiming that "hundreds and hundreds" of Russian Federation soldiers are operating in Novorussia. While some US officials speak of sending "lethal aid" to the junta, others seem to oppose it. What does that all tell you? Me - it tells me that this is the PERFECT opportunity for the kind of false flag massacres NATO and the US are so good at. That is how the "Empire of Kindness" justified bombing the Bosnian Serbs, that is how the "Empire of Kindness" justified bombing Kosovo and that is how the "Empire of Kindness" justified bombing Libya. Tomorrow, such an attack will be very easy to organize. Just send a group of men to post a Claymore mine anywhere along the convoy's route, plant a 152mm shell with a remote under the road where the bus will collect the refugees, pay some patsy to hide in the ditch with an RPG, or use a regular Grad strike at any time - and, voilà , you will have exactly the kind of atrocity which was used to justify all the previous wars of the "Empire of Kindness". Except that this time around, the goal will not be to bomb or invade Novorussia (that is something the US/NATO simply cannot do), but to create the kind if hysteria which might make it possible to save the junta forces in the Debaltsevo cauldron. That, at least, could be the plan. Also, if a massacre happens at the evacuation of refugees, then this will "prove" that the Novorussians don't care about civilians and create a "Sarajavo-like" situation in which the surrounded force gets to shoot as much as it wants while the surrounding force is crucified by the imperial propaganda for every shell fired. I sure hope that I am wrong, but I won't breathe normally again until tomorrow evening because if no false flag happens tomorrow this will be a real miracle.
The Saker
"We'll know our disinformation campaign is complete when everything the American public believes is false." --William J. Casey, D.C.I
"We will lead every revolution against us." --Theodore Herzl
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