The Battle for Novorussiya

[Lauren Johnson]

and total update from Fort Russ translated by Christina Rus:

Good evening, dear viewers. You are watching a review of the map of hostilities for Monday, February 9th.


Lets begin with the main news of the passing day - the physical closure of the Deblatsevo cauldron.


Today in the morning the fighters of Gorlovka army group from the side of Lozovoe and Gorlovka Malaya launched an attack on Longvinovo.


As a result of fighting, Longvinovo was taken under the complete control of the militia.


Along with Longvinovo, NAF fighters took strategically important heights - height 231 and height 301.


To the south from the area of Uglegorsk, NAF fighters attempted a break through, as a result of which the fighters were able to liberate several localities, such as Groznoye, Alexandrovskoye, Krasny Pakhar.


At the bottom of the cauldron, according to unconfirmed information, NAF is trying to sweep Poltavskoye. In the area of Kurgan and Mogila Ostraya clashes continue.


Militia slowly but surely is moving towards the outskirts of Polevoe. In Chernukhino, militia is continuing the operation to squeeze out parts of UAF.


At this time UAF is controlling several streets and a height West of Chernukhino.


Debaltsevo is not devoid of NAF attention, a probing of enemy defenses is ongoing.


From East and North recon-subversive groups of the militia rather freely move through downtown Debaltsevo.


The stongest positions of UAF in Debaltsevo are located in the south.


Heavy clashes are going on in the area of Novogrigorovka. Here Novorossia fighters already broke the defenses of UAF and are carrying out an operation to squeeze out UAF from the town.


From Luganskoe armored-tank columns of UAF have moved towards Nizhnee Lozovoe and Logvinovo.


With all the wishes of the Ukrainian side, the cauldron will not be deblocked, since militia had an opportunity to dig in pretty well in the area of Longvinovo and Nizhnee Lozovoe, and plus the heights will allow Novorossia artillery to carry out a strong art support.


In the area of the bottleneck Ukrainian side has at least one heavy BTG [battalion tactical group] in reserve.


It is still unclear what UAF will do with this reserve.


If they will try to deblock the cauldron, the militia from Krasny Pakhar, and most likely from Gorlovka, will begin to close a second cauldron.


If the BTG will remain in the bottleneck and will hold defense, then for the militia controlling the cauldron will be able much easier and much sooner to "boil" the cauldron


We can make a conclusion that NAF has thought out this operation to the smallest details.


In North-Western part of Lugansk People's Republic the situation has not changed overall. The artillery of LPR is carrying out heavy fire on the UAF cluster near Novotashkovka and Trehizbenka.


In the aera of Schastye and Stanitsa Luganskaya the situation has not changed in a long time.


For now the conflicting parties resort to exchange of artillery on these stretches of the front.


Lugansk artillery is firing on UAF positions in Stanitsa Luganskaya and the sronghold in the area of Olkhovaya.


In North-West of Gorlovka clashes occur in the area of Mayorsk. Artemovo, as well as Mayorsk is controlled by both sides. There is no complete control by Ukraine, as shown on the map.


The populated districts of Gorlovka are still shelled by the Ukrainian artillery, but the intensity of fire has sharply reduced. Likely it is connected with successful contra-battery work of militia artillery.


The night was very tense in Yasinovataya, Makeevka and Donetsk.


Last night around 12 pm, Donetsk was lighted up by a massive explosion, which created a giant fiery mushroom. The strike was carried out on the Donetsk Chemical Factory. It is located in the area of a "Second Platform". The wave of the blast was felt by the residents of Makeevka. Investigation is ongoing to determine what type of weapon used by the Ukrainian side could cause an explosion of such intensity. According to preliminary data the suspicion is it was Tochka U or Luna M.


Starting from the early morning and until now Kievsky, Kirovsky, Petrovsky, Kuibyshevsky districts are under constant fire.


In Petrovsky district Petrovsky bridge has been destroyed.


Dokuchaevsk and Elenovka are still under massive artillery fire of UAF.


From the side of Novognatovka and Bogdanovka UAF tanks and recon-subverisve groups regularly terrorize the residents of Styla.


On Mariupol front it is pretty quiet. Militia is trying to liquidate dozens of Ukrainian checkpoints, and carrying out reconnaissance work.


This is all for now, thank you for your attention, until next time!

[David Guyatt]

Obama says that the borders of Europe can't be redrawn with a gun - but that is exactly what the US is doing. More double speak.

Ukraine crisis: Europe's borders cannot be 'redrawn with the barrel of a gun' says Barack Obama



The US President's made his comments at a press conference as he stood beside German Chancellor Angella Merkel

LAMIAT SABIN , KASHMIRA GANDER

Monday 09 February 2015

US President Barack Obama has said the international community cannot "stand idle" and allow Europe's borders to be redrawn with the barrel of a gun, as the conflict in Ukraine shows no sign of abating.

As he stood beside German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the White House following talks about the prospect of reviving a peace plan to end the conflict, Obama warned Russia that its isolation "will only worsen both politically and economically" if it continues on its current course.
Obama went on to stress that both the US and its European allies remain committed to finding a diplomatic solution to tensions with Russia over Ukraine, as he pledged to keep up economic sanctions on the nation.
Ukrainian soldiers ride on a self-propelled howitzer near Debaltseve, eastern Ukraine
Merkel said it was crucial that the West stand up for Ukraine.
"If we give up this principle of territorial integrity of countries, then we will not be able to maintain the peaceful order of Europe," she warned.
Their remarks come after Vladimir Putin warned Ukraine is on a "dead-end track fraught with a big catastrophe" if it continues with its military operations in the east of the country ahead of key peace talks later this week.
The Russian President showed no sign of backing down over the Ukraine crisis during an interview with Egyptian newspaper Al-Ahram before a summit with the leaders of France, Germany and Ukraine on Wednesday. He is to meet Merkel dubbed chief mediator of the Ukraine crisis as the only Western politician with a stable working relationship with Putin as well as France's Francois Hollande and Ukrainian leader Petro Poroshenko.

It is hoped that a peace deal will result from the meeting in the Belarussian capital Minsk.
Merkel has warned Obama against the provision of weapons by the West to Ukraine in a bid to calm the escalating violence.
Putin wants to put an end to 'anti-terrorists' who want to oppose rebelsPutin will not be spoken to in the language of ultimatums at talks on the Ukraine crisis, a Russian radio station quoted the Kremlin as saying.
READ MORE:
PUTIN WARNS OF 'BIG CATASTROPHE'
HOLLAND AND MERKEL MAKE DESPERATE ATTEMPT AT UKRAINE PEACE PLAN
REBELS IN UKRAINE BOLSTER TROOP NUMBERS AGAINST GOVERNMENT FORCES

In comments to Govorit Moskva radio, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed claims that Merkel has issued him an ultimatum.
"Nobody has ever talked to the president in the tone of an ultimatum - and could not do so even if they wanted to," Peskov was quoted as saying.
Ukrainian troops launch a Grad rocket towards pro-Russian forces outside DebaltsevePutin had said: "The most important condition for the stabilisation of the situation is immediate cease-fire and ending of the so-called anti-terrorist', but in fact punitive, operation in the south-east of Ukraine."
"Kiev's attempts to exert economic pressure on Donbas and disrupt its daily life only aggravate the situation. This is a dead-end track, fraught with a big catastrophe," Putin added.
A total of 5,358 people have been killed and 12,235 have been wounded in the east Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhanskas of last month.
A refugee carries a bag of food donated in aid at a volunteer centre in SlavianskNearly a million people, including around 140,000 children, have also been displaced within Ukraine.
Putin also blamed the West for breaking promises to not expand Nato and, he claimed, making countries choose between them and Russia.
The West says Moscow is driving the rebels to fight Ukrainian troops by providing weapons, but this was denied by Russia who said that the insurgents are volunteers.
Ukrainian policemen and volunteers arrest suspected terrorists in KievIn his interview, Putin reiterated Moscow's line that the violence in east Ukraine was a reaction to a Western-supported "coup" in which protesters overthrew Viktor Yanukovich from the presidency in Kiev last February.
Yanukovich was ousted after he had refused to sign an association agreement with the European Union.
READ MORE:
BALTIC STATES COULD BE VLADIMIR PUTIN'S NEXT TARGETS
PUTIN IS ACTING LIKE 'A MID-20TH CENTURY TYRANT'
POLITICAL WRANGLES IN MUNICH DASH HOPES OF RAPID PEACE DEAL

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin will travel to Berlin on Monday and representatives of Russia, Ukraine, the rebels and the OSCE security watchdog are due to meet in Minsk tomorrow ahead of the leaders' planned summit the next day.

[Lauren Johnson]

Early reports on the negotiations on the possible cease fire from Col. Cassad (machine translated)

In Minsk late on February 10 meeting of the contact group started in Ukraine.

After about two hours after the meeting was adjourned. One of the representatives of the separatists said that the Ukrainian side was handed a package of measures to resolve the situation in the Donbas. Response to suggestions by representatives of Kiev promised to give after the break. This meeting was preceded by negotiations, "Norman Quartet", which is scheduled in Minsk on 11 February. Initially it was assumed that in the meeting of the contact group will participate Russian presidential aide Vladislav Surkov. However, the list of participants of the meeting, according to "Interfax", he did not hit.

According to the agency, at the negotiating table in the residence "Dipservice hall" in the center of Minsk brought together representatives of the self-proclaimed DNR and LC Denis Pushilin and Vladislav Dane, the second President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma Russian Ambassador to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov, as well as OSCE Special Representative Heidi Tagliavini.

A similar list of participants has led the agency BelTA. However, as noted by TASS, in negotiations with the Ukrainian side also participates Special Envoy for Humanitarian Affairs, the leader of the public organization "Ukrainian choice" Viktor Medvedchuk. Around the residence, where the meeting of the contact group, strengthened security measures. Next to the building are on duty law enforcement officers. It was assumed that the event will begin at 18:00 local time, but then it was postponed due to the massive fire at the Donbass Kramatorsk, which killed up to 12 people.

Before the meeting, [B]the source RIA "Novosti" in the Russian delegation to the OSCE reported that we will focus on the establishment of a demilitarized zone in the Donbas, free not only from heavy weapons, but also by militias and security forces units. He explained that in Minsk arrangements from September 2014 dealt with the withdrawal of heavy weapons only, and the issue of the withdrawal had not been registered.

An informed source TASS some time after the start of the negotiations said that [B]the contact group agreed scheme withdrawal of heavy weapons, have agreed ceasefire and monitoring its implementation. According to him, the talks also discussed the state system of Donbass and local elections.

Approximately two hours after the meeting was adjourned. During pause negotiator Dennis Pushilin separatists said that [B]the Ukrainian side has been transferred "draft protocol, which includes a set of measures for military and political settlement." According to him, the answer to the other proposed measures negotiators promised to give after the break, "Interfax" reports.

However, the agency's source close to the negotiations said that the exact time when the contact group will meet to discuss the draft protocol separatists, not yet determined.

On the eve of the leader of the "People's Republic of Luhansk" Igor Carpenter said that the negotiations [B]representatives of the "New Russia" will insist "on fixing existing to date mark the line of contact." One of the first issues in the negotiations of the contact group in Minsk will lift the economic blockade with Donbass, said Carpenter.

Last time to negotiate a contact group representatives separatists Pushilin and Dana came in late January. However, the meeting did not take place. Both sides were unhappy statuses negotiators. In Kiev, said that Minsk had come DNR leaders and LC, and separatists in turn, waiting for the negotiations Ukrainian President Poroshenko.

Once the contacts in Minsk failed, military action in the Donbas began to develop with new vigor. Experts say that this was one of the reasons why the leaders of France and Germany, Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel decided to launch a new initiative for the peaceful settlement of the conflict in the Donbas. This plan last week initially discussed with Poroshenko, and then with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

However, no official details the content of the initiative Berlin and Paris still no. Journalists, citing its sources say that, most likely, we are talking about the introduction of international peacekeepers in the conflict zone and providing greater autonomy separate action regions. However, it is only officially unconfirmed media speculation.

http://www.newsru.com/world/10feb2015/mi nsksurkov.html - zinc

PS. The bottom line (if leakage negotiations correlate with reality), will try to freeze the conflict through the establishment of a demilitarized zone, which may be introduced or that the peacemakers, if the parties are unable to agree on this. In case of success of the negotiations, there will be the expected operational pause, and the intensity of the fighting will decrease. It is clear that all will rest on the status of Donbass, border control and the issue of elections. Will reach a compromise, we will see tomorrow.[/B][/B][/B][/B]

[Lauren Johnson]

The Minsk II meetings have begun, Putin, Hollande, Merkel, and Poroshenko representing their respective countries. With these people there, a deal has been hammered out -- at least that is the prevailing wisdom -- which will leave DNR and LNR as a part of Ukraine. DNR and LNR not there. USA not there. USA thinking seriously about arming the Ukrainians so that they can defend themselves.

Meanwhile, in other news, the heavy bombardment of Donetsk in all sectors continues with reports from the DNR rep that a task force is threatening to directly attack Donetsk.

The fighting in the Debalstevo boiler continues with heavy Ukrainian losses. Nothing about NAF losses.

How what appears to be another sell-out of the Novorussiya plays out is anyone's guess. Poroshenko would have had to broker a deal with the real military powers to stop the shelling of the cities, which has not stopped since last May.

What the live proceedings on YouTube.

[Lauren Johnson]

Speculation after Minsk II signed: Polish armor on train tracks at the Ukrainian border. Waiting for the signing?

EDIT: Maybe some of the Polish troops stuck in the boiler can volunteer.

[Lauren Johnson]

Lavrov: "Document can be signed tomorrow. Not today." Or never?

In other news,

The U.S. military has deployed a dozen Cold War-era A-10 attack aircraft to Europe amid the escalating assault from pro-Russian separatists in the Ukraine, an official said.The aircraft, known officially as the Thunderbolt II and unofficially as the Warthog, on Monday departed Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Arizona for Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany in support of Operation Atlantic Resolve, according to Lt. Col. Christopher Karns, a spokesman for the Air Force at the Pentagon.

"While in Germany these aircraft will forward-deploy to locations in Eastern European NATO nations," he said in an e-mail. "Units will conduct training alongside our NATO allies to strengthen interoperability and to demonstrate U.S. commitment to the security and stability of Europe."

About 300 airmen and support equipment are headed overseas with the A-10s, which belong to the 355th Fighter Wing at Davis-Monthan. The deployment comes as President Barack Obama is weighing whether to approve the transfer of weapons in addition to non-lethal assistance to Ukraine.

The top NATO commander, Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove, last week warned that any action the U.S. or other Western nations take "could trigger a more strident reaction from Russia," even while acknowledging that Russia continues to supply separatists on the border with heavy, state-of-the-art weapons, air defenses and fighters, according to an article by The Associated Press.....

[Lauren Johnson]

Leaked issues from Minsk II summary Vladimir Suchan FB and from Yahoo News:

Either Germany's or France's diplomatic sources leaked some details about the talks in Minsk to AP:

1. Ukraine's key demand is that Russia withdraws its troops and weapons from the country.

2. Ukraine is demanding that it gets back control over its border with Russia and that rebels hand back border posts they have captured. It also wants the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to monitor the border to stem the flow of Russian troops and weapons. Russia has allowed OSCE monitors at two border checkpoints, but said the OSCE needs to talk to the rebels to monitor other sections of the border. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned Wednesday that border controls could only be fully restored after Ukraine gives a broad autonomy to the east, grants amnesty to the rebels [amnesty granted by Nazis to their victims that they dared to fight back ... that's a new idea!] and ends its financial blockade of rebel-controlled areas.

3. Russian President Vladimir Putin's fears that Ukraine will eventually join NATO triggered the current crisis and he will keep urging the West to guarantee that Ukraine will not become part of the military alliance. The West says Ukraine has a sovereign right to determine its own future. Concessions on the subject are unlikely since the Ukrainian parliament dropped the nation's non-aligned status last month.

4. The exact measure of autonomy for Ukraine's rebellious east is a major sticking point in the talks. Russia has demanded that the Ukrainian government approve a wide autonomy for the separatist eastern regions.

5. Russia has talked about the potential deployment of international peacekeepers to monitor the cease-fire, while Ukraine has remained cautious about the idea. Russia appears to want a peacekeeping contingent that includes soldiers from Moscow-friendly ex-Soviet nations like Kazakhstan, Belarus or Azerbaijan something Ukraine reportedly opposes.

[Magda Hassan]

Leaked issues from Minsk II summary Vladimir Suchan FB and from Yahoo News:

Either Germany's or France's diplomatic sources leaked some details about the talks in Minsk to AP:

1. Ukraine's key demand is that Russia withdraws its troops and weapons from the country.

Hard to do since they aren't there. Like the US government didn't have any control over the Abraham Lincoln Brigade in the Spanish civil war.

2. Ukraine is demanding that it gets back control over its border with Russia and that rebels hand back border posts they have captured. It also wants the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to monitor the border to stem the flow of Russian troops and weapons. Russia has allowed OSCE monitors at two border checkpoints, but said the OSCE needs to talk to the rebels to monitor other sections of the border. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned Wednesday that border controls could only be fully restored after Ukraine gives a broad autonomy to the east, grants amnesty to the rebels [amnesty granted by Nazis to their victims that they dared to fight back ... that's a new idea!] and ends its financial blockade of rebel-controlled areas.

No border controls until local autonomy.

3. Russian President Vladimir Putin's fears that Ukraine will eventually join NATO triggered the current crisis and he will keep urging the West to guarantee that Ukraine will not become part of the military alliance. The West says Ukraine has a sovereign right to determine its own future. Concessions on the subject are unlikely since the Ukrainian parliament dropped the nation's non-aligned status last month.

Regan promised there would be no eastward expansion of NATO. US lied. Should with draw all NATO bases built since 1990. And the Turkish ones as promised Kennedy.

4. The exact measure of autonomy for Ukraine's rebellious east is a major sticking point in the talks. Russia has demanded that the Ukrainian government approve a wide autonomy for the separatist eastern regions.

As autonomous as they choose. Not for Kiev junta to say.

5. Russia has talked about the potential deployment of international peacekeepers to monitor the cease-fire, while Ukraine has remained cautious about the idea. Russia appears to want a peacekeeping contingent that includes soldiers from Moscow-friendly ex-Soviet nations like Kazakhstan, Belarus or Azerbaijan something Ukraine reportedly opposes.

International peace keepers would be a good idea. Don't know why Ukraine would oppose.

.

[Lauren Johnson]

Minsk II negotiations proving difficult; about 80% done and working and details.

Follow with live updates at : http://rt.com/news/231327-minsk-peace-talks-updates/

[David Guyatt]

Putin has announced that a cease fire has been agreed and is to begin in 3 days time on 15th February 2015. Heavy artillery will be withdrawn. Hollande confirms. Everyone now seems to be waiting for Merkel to say her piece.