The Battle for Novorussiya

[Danny Jarman]

Bad news for the yankees.

Expect another false flag soon blamed on 'da rebelz/russia'.

[Magda Hassan]

Putin has announced that a cease fire has been agreed and is to begin in 3 days time on 15th February 2015. Heavy artillery will be withdrawn. Hollande confirms. Everyone now seems to be waiting for Merkel to say her piece.

Fuck the US.

[Lauren Johnson]

I had to get up to check on what happened.

Whatever was decided, Poroshenko is already backtracking. Zacharchenko has said all the points must be kept or they agreement is null. Who is going to disarm Pravy Sector, etc?

Mark Sleboda ‏@MarkSleboda1 20m20 minutes ago
Minsk 2.0 was a fascinating day of diplomatic theatre. That was fun, humorous, and enlightening....Now back to the civil war.

EDIT: Back to bed.

[David Guyatt]

Putin has announced that a cease fire has been agreed and is to begin in 3 days time on 15th February 2015. Heavy artillery will be withdrawn. Hollande confirms. Everyone now seems to be waiting for Merkel to say her piece.

Fuck the US.

Is that what Merkel is going to say? ::

[David Guyatt]

Can't wait to see what the guy from the XX Committee blog will have to say about this...

[Magda Hassan]

::orly:: I will go and have a look shall I?

::evilpenguin::

[Lauren Johnson]

Alexander Mourcouris on Minsk II @ Saker of the Vineyard

by Alexander Mercouris

Already there is debate about who has "won" and who has "lost" in the Minsk talks.

The short answer is that as the German foreign minister Steinmeier correctly said there is no breakthrough but the Russians and the NAF have made progress.

One point needs to be explained or reiterated (since I have explained it already and many times).

The agreement does not make provision for federalisation or autonomy for the Donbass but still only refers to the grant of a law according the Donbass temporary special status within the Ukraine.

There could not be an agreement for federalisation out of the Minsk negotiations because they are primarily a summit meeting of five powers - Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, German and France. The Russians have always insisted that this is an internal conflict and civil war within the Ukraine and between Ukrainians and it is for the Ukrainians and them alone to resolve their internal differences between them through negotiations.

Given that this is Russia's stance, Russia and the other powers cannot impose a federalisation scheme on the Ukrainians and they have not - at least overtly - sought to do so. What the stated objective of the Minsk talks is - at least from the Russian point of view - is to set up conditions and a process for the constitutional negotiations that the Russians have been pushing for (and which were supposedly agreed on 21st February 2014 and on 17th April 2014 and 5th September 2014) to take place.

The Russians have been insisting on these negotiations since the February coup. The Russians are not publicly pre-ordaining the outcome of those negotiations because were they to do so they would not be negotiations at all. Whatever a negotiation is, it is by definition not something whose outcome is preordained.

If the Russians sought to preordain the outcome of the negotiations by insisting on federalisation as the outcome they would be imposing their views on the parties and would be admitting that they are a party to the conflict, which is what they have consistently said they are not. They would in effect be doing what the US has tried to do in the Syrian conflict, which is insist on an outcome to negotiations (Assad's resignation) before negotiations even take place. The Russians have always opposed this sort of behaviour and they are being consistent in not openly adopting it now.

Depending on what the parties agree between them, the negotiations could in theory result in decentralisation, federalisation, a confederation or even outright independence for the Donbass (the Russians floated that idea as a serious possibility in the summer). The latter is not by the way contrary to the reaffirmation of respect or even support for the Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity that we saw in the statement today. If the internal parties to the conflict were to decide on a formal partition as the solution to the Ukraine's conflict, then international actors like Russia could recognise it without calling into question their previous declared support for the Ukraine's territorial integrity, as they previously did when Czechoslovakia split up.

In reality everybody knows that the Russians' preferred option is federalisation and the Europeans are now edging towards that solution. Whether it is a viable solution is another matter.

Once this key point is understood everything else starts to fall into place.

Last spring and summer the Russians sought a ceasefire so the constitutional negotiations could begin. The Europeans are now also demanding a ceasefire (they were less keen on the idea last spring and summer). There is now therefore an agreement for a ceasefire.

Back in August the Russians demanded the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the Donbass. There is now an agreement for the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the Donbass.

If that happens it will be a major weakening of the Junta's position in the Donbass because it is the Junta whose military has the big preponderance in heavy weapons. If the opposing sides are left with light infantry forces, the advantage on the ground will pass decisively to the NAF.

The political machinery that was supposed to have been agreed in Minsk on 5th September 2014 to create the conditions for the constitutional elections is being revived. Thus there is to be a law of special status for the Donbass pending the constitutional negotiations to clarify its current legal status and provide legal mechanisms for its internal administration by the NAF (Ukraine passed one previously and then reneged on it), more elections etc.

There is a new provision, which is the first indications of some sort of timeline for this process with the constitutional negotiations supposed to have been concluded by the end of the year.

There are also some ideas for a beefed up monitoring process via the OSCE.

Will any of this happen? Highly doubtful I would say. Consider what happened after the Minsk process of 5th September 2014. The Junta did not withdraw its heavy weapons. It did not retreat to the agreed boundary line. It imposed an economic blockade on the Donbass (it is now obliged to lift it). It rescinded the law on the Donbass's special status. It reinforced its army and in January it attempted to renew its offensive.

Is there any more prospect of this process succeeding than did the one that was agreed in Minsk in September?

The big difference between this process and the previous process is that the Europeans are now formally involved. Its success or failure ultimately depends on whether the Europeans are going to insist on the Junta fulfilling its obligations. They spectacularly failed to do so before and I have to say I think it is very unlikely they will do so now. If the Europeans fail to insist on the Junta fulfilling its obligations then the process will unravel as the previous Minsk process did and with the balance of advantage continuing to shift every day on the ground towards the NAF we will see a further renewal of the fighting and a further NAF advance in the spring.

In the meantime control of the border, disarmament of "illegal armed groups" etc are now overtly linked to the successful conclusion of the constitutional negotiations, which is supposed to happen before the end of the year. Of course if the constitutional negotiations succeed, then when all these things happen we will have a different Ukraine from the one we have now. At that point the control of border posts etc will be in the hands of differently constituted authorities from those that exist today.

Will those negotiations actually happen? Will they succeed if they do? I doubt it. The Junta will resist them tooth and nail if only because those negotiations put in jeopardy the whole Maidan project and by their mere fact call into question the Junta's legitimacy.

It depends in the end on what the Europeans do. This has been true of the conflict from the start.

That it depends on what the Europeans do is in itself a good reason to doubt this process will succeed. The probability is more conflict down the road but in the meantime Poroshenko's admission that there is "no good news for the Ukraine" from this process tells us who is winning.

[Michael Barwell]

The untold story of the Maidan massacre By Gabriel Gatehouse BBC 12 February 2015
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-31359021
"A day of bloodshed on Kiev's main square, nearly a year ago, marked the end of a winter of protest against the government of president Viktor Yanukovych, who soon afterwards fled the country. More than 50 protesters and three policemen died. But how did the shooting begin? Protest organisers have always denied any involvement - but one man told the BBC a different story." [Hold-on to yer horses, but - ]
"Meanwhile, conspiracy theories flourish.
"I'm certain that the shootings of the 20th were carried out by snipers who arrived from Russia and who were controlled by Russia," says Andriy Parubiy, the former Commandant of the Maidan.
"The shooters were aiming to orchestrate a bloodbath on Maidan."
This is a widely-held belief in Ukraine. In Russia, many believe the opposite - that the revolt on Maidan was a Western conspiracy, a CIA-inspired coup designed to pull Ukraine out of Moscow's orbit. Neither side offers convincing evidence for its assertion."

[Lauren Johnson]

1. Immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions of Ukraine and its strict implementation commencing at 00 h. 00 min. (Kiev), on February 15, 2015.
   

1. Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distances in order to create a security zone with a width of at least 50 km between them for artillery systems with a calibre of 100 mm and more, and a security zone with a width of 70 km for MLRS and with a width of 140 km for MLRS "Tornado-S" "Uragan," "Smerch" and tactical missile systems "Tochka" ("Tochka-U"):
   

- for the Ukrainian troops: from the actual line of contact;- for the armed forces of the certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions of Ukraine: from the line of contact in accordance with the Minsk Memorandum of September 19, 2014.The withdrawal of heavy weapons set out above shall begin no later than the second day after the cease-fire and end within 14 days.This process will be assisted by the OSCE, with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.

1. On the part of the OSCE, to ensure effective monitoring and verification of the ceasefire and the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the first day of the withdrawal, with the use of all necessary means, including satellites, drones, radar systems and so forth.
   

1. On the first day following the withdrawal to begin a dialogue with respect to the modalities of the local elections in accordance with Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On the temporary order of local government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions," as well as with respect to the future operation of these areas on the basis of the Law.
   

Immediately, and not later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, to adopt a resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine with the specification of the territory covered by the special regime provided for in the Law of Ukraine "On the temporary order of local government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions", [such territory] to be based on the line set out in the Minsk Memorandum of September 19, 2014

1. Provide pardons and amnesties by means of enacting a law prohibiting the prosecution and punishment of persons in connection with the events that took place in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions of Ukraine.
   

1. Facilitate the release and exchange of all hostages and illegally detained persons, based on the principle of "all for all". This process must be completed no later than on the fifth day following the withdrawal.
   

1. Provide secure access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian assistance to those in need on the basis of an international mechanism.
   

1. Determination of the modalities of the full restoration of the socio-economic relations, including social transfers, such as pensions and other payments (receipts and income, timely payment of all utility bills, renewal of taxation within the legal framework of Ukraine).
   

To this end, Ukraine shall reestablish control over the segment of its banking system in the areas affected by conflict, and it is possible that an international mechanism to facilitate such transfers will be created.

1. Restoration of full control by the government of Ukraine over the state border throughout the conflict zone, which shall begin on the first day following the local elections and be completed following a comprehensive political settlement ([to wit:] [1] local elections in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions on the basis of the Law of Ukraine and [2] a constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, subject to the performance of Paragraph 11 in consultation and by agreement with the representatives of certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.
   

1. Withdrawal of all foreign armed units, military equipment, as well as mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under the supervision of the OSCE. The disarmament of all illegal groups.
   

1. Passing of a constitutional reform in Ukraine with the entry into force by the end of 2015 of a new constitution, which shall incorporate decentralization as a key element (taking into account the characteristics of certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions, to be agreed upon with the representatives of these areas), as well as, before the end of 2015, adoption of permanent legislation with respect to the special status of certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions in accordance with the measures specified in Note [1],.
   

1. On the basis of the Law of Ukraine "On the temporary order of local government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions", all questions regarding local elections shall be discussed and agreed upon with the representatives of these areas of Donetsk and the Lugansk regions within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections shall be held in compliance with the relevant standards of the OSCE and shall be monitored by the OSCE ODIHR.
   

1. To intensify the activities of the Trilateral Contact Group, including through the establishment of working groups to implement the relevant aspects of the Minsk Agreements. [These working groups] shall reflect the composition of the Trilateral Contact Group.
   

---

Note 1:Such measures in accordance with the Law "On the special order of local government in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions" shall include the following:

• exemption from punishment, harassment and discrimination of individuals associated with the events that took place in certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions;
  

• the right to linguistic self-determination;
  

• participation of local governments in the appointment of the heads of prosecutorial bodies and the courts in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions;
  

• ability for the central executive authorities to enter into agreements regarding economic, social and cultural development of certain regions of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions with the relevant local authorities;
  

• the State shall support the socio-economic development of individual regions of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions;
  

• facilitation by the central government of cross-border cooperation between certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions and the regions of the Russian Federation;
  

• establishment of units of People's Militia by order of local councils with the goal of maintaining public order in certain areas of the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions;
  

• the powers of local council deputies and officers elected in early elections, to be set by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine in accordance with this law, may not be terminated.
  

[EDIT: Word is Poroshenko refused to sign it.]

[R.K. Locke]

I haven't kept up with this thread as much as I should have. Why does everyone think that the Americans are putting so much energy into this? I don't see what strategic gain they can make here that would be worth the commitment they are showing.