Turkey Invades Syria

[Lauren Johnson]

Lots of noise going on the Syria. The US quietly proclaims a no-fly zone in northern Syria and warned Syrian jets to stay away. Iran told Russia it could no longer use Iranian space to fly bombing raids -- then maybe that changed back. After the attempted coup in Turkey supposedly backed by the US, Turkey pivots to the east. Now Turkey has moved ground forces into Syria, with overt US approval and promises of air protection. Turkey's invasion is met with no resistance as ISIS forces abandoned their positions prior to the invasion. Hmmm. Looks pre-arranged to me.

Russia says nothing so far. Not a single S-400 fired ever.

The are all over the map commentaries. Andrew Korybko thinks Putin is executing another clever plan to keep Syria whole.

It's very fashionable nowadays for people to criticize the Kremlin for incompetency, and its recent history of controversial decisions coupled with the suspected liberal fifth-and-six-column infiltration of key national institutions gives plenty of ground for this, but sometimes people jump the gun, such as when accusing Russia of being duped' by Turkey. It's interesting that no such criticisms are publicly leveled against Iran despite Tehran bending over backwards to Ankara during and after the failed pro-US coup attempt against Erdogan, but double standards are the norm when people engage in diatribes, and it's always been the case that Russia has caught much more flak than anyone else whenever multipolar commentators critique their own camp.

This is the precisely the case with the news that Turkish forces have crossed into Syria, with the most common knee-jerk reaction being that President Putin was manipulated by Erdogan as part of some large-scale Machiavellian plot, though of course, without making any mention that this charge could more rightly be directed against the Ayatollah. Anyhow, the prevailing narrative among multipolar supporters appears to be one of grief and despair, with Facebookers pulling their hair out over how stupid Russia apparently was to trust Turkey and work on helping it pivot towards Eurasia. As popular and trendy as it may be for people to jump on the bandwagon and start railing against Russia, and for as healthy' as it is for people to let off some steam and vocally vent their frustrations every once in a while, there's actually countervailing evidence that Turkey's operation isn't a unipolar conspiracy but evidence of high-level multipolar coordination.

To explain, as of the moment of writing (11.30am MSK), neither Moscow, Tehran, nor even Damascus has issued any statement condemning Turkey's military intervention, and the website of the official Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) is noticeably silent about this development. All of this is very strange if one accepts the assumption that Turkey's moves constitute an invasion' of Syria, since while the Kremlin critics might invent all sorts of explanations for why Moscow isn't saying anything, less people can attribute a semi-plausible reason to why Tehran and Damascus aren't publicly rabid with fury right now. Though it's true that Turkey is even coordinating part of its operation with the assistance of US air support, there's actually a novel, contextual touch to that which needs to be further elaborated on.

The recent clashes between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and the Kurdish YPG militia in Hasakah have been halted for the time being as a result of Russian mediation, but even when they were ongoing, many observers agreed that it's not to anyone's interests besides the US' to see the SAA begin a full-on law and order operation against the Kurds, as this would dramatically impede post-conflict resolution efforts in retaining the Syrian Arab Republic's territorial sovereignty and unitary nature. However, no such diplomatic sensitivities are present when it comes to Turkey's capability to do this, since it's globally known just how ferociously opposed Ankara is to the creation of a Kurdish "federalized" (internally partitioned) statelet all along its southern frontier. Hand in hand with this, most people are aware that the US is desperately trying to curry favor with Turkey and prevent its withdrawal from the unipolar fold, ergo American eagerness to publicly assist its Mideast partner in its latest operation.

To put it more simply, Russia and the SAA for reasons of political sensitivity and long-term strategy do not want to attack the YPG and proactively stop it from occupying all of northern Syria, whereas Turkey has no such reservations in doing this and is more than eager to do the heavy lifting', especially if it could con the US Air Force into helping it target actual terrorists on the ground during this time. The American intent in all of this is to prove that it's a loyal ally' of Turkey and to contribute to the attempted reconciliation that Washington is trying to carry out with Ankara, though in this case, it's being exploited as the ultimate useful idiot' in helping the Multipolar Community in its quest to destroy the second geopolitical Israel' of "Kurdistan". Having said all of this, naysayers will still point to the fact that Turkey is not to be trusted and that the presence of any foreign troops or the ordering of any military attacks on Syrian soil without Damascus' permission is a violation of its sovereignty and a breach of international law, which is certainly true in this case if President Assad didn't coordinate any of this with his Turkish counterpart.

However inconvenient' it may be for the most gung-ho (usually foreign-based) supporters of Syria to admit, Damascus and Ankara have been engaged in secret talks for months now in the Algerian capital of Algiers, as has been repeatedly confirmed by many multiple media sources ever since this spring. Moreover, Turkey justdispatched one of its deputy intelligence chiefs to Damascus a few days ago to meet with his high-level Syrian counterparts, so this might explain the reason why Russia and Iran aren't condemning Turkey's incursion into Syria, nor why the Syrian officials aren't loudly protesting against it either. More and more, the evidence is pointing to Turkey's operation being part of a larger move that was coordinated in advance with Syria, Russia, and Iran. Nevertheless, for domestic political reasons within both Syria and Turkey, neither side is expected to admit to having coordinated any of this, and it's likely that bellicose rhetoric might be belched from Ankara just as much as it's predictable that Damascus will rightfully speak about the protection of its sovereignty.

What's most important, though, isn't to listen so much to Turkey and Syria, but to watch and observe what Russia and Iran say and do, since these are the two countries most capable of defending Syria from any legitimate aggression against its territory and which have been firmly standing behind it for years now, albeit to differing qualitative extents though with complementary synergy (i.e. Russia's anti-terrorist air operation and Iran's special forces ground one). This isn't in any way to excuse', apologize for', or explain away' the US' opportunistic and illegal inadvertent contribution to this coordinated multipolar campaign, but to accurately document how and why it decided to involve itself in this superficially Turkish-led venture, namely because it was cleverly misled by Erdogan into thinking that this is a precondition for the normalization of relations between both sides.

Russia lacks the political will to cleanse the Wahhabi terrorists and Kurdish separatists from northern Syrian itself, and for as much as one may support or condemn this, it's a statement of fact that must be taken into account when analyzing and forecasting events. With this obvious constraint being a major factor influencing the state of affairs in Syria, it's reasonable then that Syria, Russia, and Iran wouldn't vocally object too much to Turkey tricking the US into doing this instead out of the pursuit of its own self-interests vis-à-vis the attempted normalization with Ankara. The major qualifying variable that must be mentioned at this point is that serious Russian and Iranian condemnation of Turkey's ongoing operation would signal that something either went wrong with their multilaterally coordinated plan, or that Turkey was just a backstabbing pro-American Trojan Horse this entire time and the skepticism surrounding Moscow and Tehran's dedicated efforts to coax Ankara into a multipolar pivot was fully vindicated as the correct analysis all along.

In closing, the author would like to refer the reader to his article from over a month ago about how "Regional War Looms As "Kurdistan" Crosses The Euphrates", in which it was forecast that Russia would assemble a multipolar "Lead From Behind" coalition in pushing back against the US' attempts to carve the second geopolitical Israel' of "Kurdistan" out of northern Syria, with it specifically being written that "it can be reasonably assumed that there's an invisible Russian hand gently coordinating their broad regional activities" in stopping this. With Turkey crossing into Syria to preempt the YPG from unifying all of its occupied territory in northern Syria and breathing sustainable geopolitical life into the US' latest divide-and-rule project in the Mideast, and keeping in mind the fast-paced diplomacy between Russia, Iran, and Turkey and the months-long ongoing secret negotiations between Ankara and Damascus, all empirical evidence suggests that this latest development in the War on Syria is less a unipolar conspiracy and more a multipolar coordinated plan to bring an end to this conflict and preempt the internal partitioning of Syria.

I continue to think Putin is involved in the partition of Syria -- that's his clever plan.

EDIT: Mark Sleboda on FB says the Kremlin go played again:

Erdogan invades sovereign #Syria after 6 yrs of failed proxy war under US air cover with the pretext of fighting ISIS"Rapprochement with Russia" and "Eurasian pivot", my ass...
Kremlin just got fucking played by Erdogan and US. Big time.
Layers of Pretext for Turkish invasion of #Syria:

1. "Liberating" #Jarablus from #ISIS to give to #AlQaeda

2. Giving #Jarablus to #AlQaeda to deny it to #Kurds

3. Safe/No Fly Zone for #AlQaeda


4. Partition of #Syria

[Lauren Johnson]

Syria's conflict has escalated into dangerous new territory as Turkish military forces cross the Turkish-Syrian border in an attempt to annex the Syrian city of Jarabulus. The operation includes not only Turkish military forces, but also throngs of Western-backed militants who will likely be handed control of the city before expanding operations deeper into Syria against Syrian government forces.

With the beginning of the operation, aimed allegedly at seizing the city from militants of the so-called Islamic State as well as preventing the city from falling into the hands of advancing US-backed Kurdish forces, Ankara's move has made several things clear about the current geopolitical dimensions of the ongoing regional conflict.

The "US-Backed" July Coup Was Likely Staged

First, with US warplanes providing close air support for Turkish operations, claims by Ankara that the US was behind an attempted coup in July appear to have been fabrications and the coup itself likely staged.

US Vice President Joseph Biden made an official visit to Turkey just this week in what was the highest level visit by a US representative since the attempted coup in July. Vice President Biden discussed bilateral relations and joint US-Turkish military cooperation.


Reuters in its report, "With Biden visit, U.S. seeks balance with truculent Turkey," would claim:

Biden, who visited Latvia on Tuesday, will look to show support with Turkey, while raising concern about the extent of the crackdown, according to officials. Turkey will press its case for Gulen's extradition."The vice president will also reaffirm that the United States is doing everything we can to support Turkey's ongoing efforts to hold accountable those responsible for the coup attempt while ensuring the rule of law is respected during the process," a senior Obama administration official told reporters, briefing ahead of Biden's visit on condition of anonymity.

It is difficult to believe that Fethullah Gülen could have orchestrated a violent military coup while residing in the United States without the explicit approval and support of the United States government. Thus, for the US to "hold accountable those responsible for the coup attempt" would require the identification and detainment of those Americans who were involved.

Regarding US joint operations with Turkey specifically, the BBC in its article, "Syria Jarablus: Turkish tanks roll into northern Syria," would report:

An unnamed senior US official in Washington told BBC News before the start of the Turkish operation that it was "partly to create a buffer against the possibility of the Kurds moving forward"."We are working with them on that potential operation: our advisers are communicating with them on the Jarablus plan."We'll give close air support if there's an operation."

It would be likewise difficult to believe that Turkey truly suspected the US of an attempted decapitation of the nation's senior leadership in a violent, abortive coup just last month, only to be conducting joint operations with the US inside Syria with US military forces still based within Turkish territory.

What is much more likely is that the coup was staged to feign a US-Turkish fallout, draw in Russia and allow Turkey to make sweeping purges of any elements within the Turkish armed forces that might oppose a cross-border foray into Syria, a foray that is now unfolding.

Anthony Cartalucci, a Bangkok-based geopolitical analyst would note in a July 18 piece titled, "Turkey's Failed Coup: "A Gift from God" or from Washington?," that:

...the coup was staged - not against Turkey - but in part by it, with the help of not only the United States, but also Gulen's political faction. It will represent a 21st century "Reichstag fire" leading to a 21st century "Hitlerian purge," removing the last remaining obstacles to President Erdogan and the corrosive institutions he has constructed in their collective bid to seize absolute power over Turkey. And quite to the contrary of those changes one would expect Turkey to make if truly the US engineered this coup to oust, not abet Erdogan, Turkey is very likely to double down on hostility toward neighboring Syria and its allies.

With Turkey now moving into northern Syria, backing militant forces that will go on to fight Syrian forces and prolong the conflict from a new forward base of operations inside Syria and with NATO protection, this is precisely what has now happened.

Building Long-Desired Militant Safe-Havens

The crossing of Syria's border constitutes the fulfilment of longstanding plans predating both the Kurdish offensive and the rise of the Islamic State.

The plans laid by Washington and its regional allies seek to establish a buffer zone or "safe-haven" within Syrian territory unassailable by Syrian forces from which Western-backed militants can launch operations deeper into Syrian territory. Currently, these operations are launched from Turkish territory itself.

With militants being incrementally pushed out of Aleppo and Syrian forces making advances everywhere west of the Euphrates River, it appears that the US is attempting to use Kurdish forces to annex eastern Syria while Turkey's latest move is aimed at finally creating a long-desired northern safe-haven in order to prevent a full collapse of fighting within the country.

British special forces, meanwhile, are reportedly in southern Syrian attempting to carve out a similar haven for militants along Jordan and Iraq's borders with Syria.

The participation of US airpower in the ongoing operation also makes clear the lack of strategic and political depth of US loyalty to its supposed Kurdish allies, a betrayal in motion even as Kurdish forces are being marshalled and directed against Syrian forces by the US in eastern Syria.

Plans for such safe-havens were disclosed as early as 2012, with US policymakers in a Brookings Institution paper titled, "Assessing Options for Regime Change," stating (our emphasis):

An alternative is for diplomatic efforts to focus first on how to end the violence and how to gain humanitarian access, as is being done under [Former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan's] leadership. This may lead to the creation of safe-havens and humanitarian corridors, which would have to be backed by limited military power. This would, of course, fall short of U.S. goals for Syria and could preserve Asad in power. From that starting point, however, it is possible that a broad coalition with the appropriate international mandate could add further coercive action to its efforts.

This is now precisely what is being created, starting in Jarabulus, and likely to extend westward toward Azaz, directly north of the contested Syrian city of Aleppo. Since 2012, various pretexts have been invented, abandoned and then revisited in order to justify a cross-border operation like the one now unfolding.

Creating a Pretext Staged Terror Attack Was an Option

This included Ankara itself plotting attacks on its own territory to look like cross-border terrorism that could be used as impetus for the creation of a Turkish-controlled Jarabulus-Azaz corridor.

The International Business Times in a 2014 article titled, "Turkey YouTube Ban: Full Transcript of Leaked Syria 'War' Conversation Between Erdogan Officials," would reveal the details of a transcript in which Turkish leadership contemplated staging just such an attack:

Ahmet DavutoÄŸlu: "Prime Minister said that in current conjuncture, this attack (on Suleiman Shah Tomb) must be seen as an opportunity for us."

Hakan Fidan: "I'll send 4 men from Syria, if that's what it takes. I'll make up a cause of war by ordering a missile attack on Turkey; we can also prepare an attack on Suleiman Shah Tomb if necessary."

Feridun SinirlioÄŸlu: "Our national security has become a common, cheap domestic policy outfit."

Yaşar Güler: "It's a direct cause of war. I mean, what're going to do is a direct cause of war."

It may just be a coincidence that a similar provocation unfolded just ahead of the current Turkish cross-border operation. The New York Times in its article, "Wedding Bombing is the Latest in a Series of Deadly Terror Attacks in Turkey," would detail the provocation now being cited for Turkey's current operation:

A bombing on Saturday night at a Kurdish wedding in Gaziantep, a Turkish town near the Syrian border, was one of the deadliest in a string of terrorist attacks that have struck Turkey. Since June 2015, Kurdish and Islamic State militants have staged at least 15 major attacks across Turkey, killing more than 330 people.

Thus, Turkey's government and a complicit Western media have helped place the blame equally on both the Islamic State and Kurdish militants ahead of the now ongoing cross-border operation.

The above mentioned BBC article would also note:

Turkey has vowed to "completely cleanse" IS from its border region, blaming the group for a bomb attack on a wedding that killed at least 54 people in Gaziantep on Saturday.

In the aftermath of the July coup, many were hopeful Turkey would realign itself geopolitically and play a more constructive and stabilising role in the region.

Instead, while citing the threat of the Islamic State and Kurdish forces along its border, a threat that its own collusion with US and Persian Gulf States since 2011 helped create, Turkey has decisively helped move forward a crucial part of US plans to dismember Syria and move its campaign of North African and Middle Eastern destabilisation onward and outward.

The response by Syria and its allies in the wake of Turkey's cross-border foray has so far been muted. What, if any actions could be taken to prevent the US and its allies from achieving their plans remain to be seen.

While the toppling of the government in Damascus looks unlikely at the moment, the Balkanisation of Syria was a secondary objective always only ever considered by US policymakers as a mere stop gap until eventually toppling Damascus as well. Conceding eastern and parts of northern Syria to US-led aggression will only buy time.

Source

[Lauren Johnson]

Mark Sleboda ‏@MarkSleboda1 14m14 minutes ago
Mark Sleboda Retweeted TASS
"Deeply concerned"? That's it? Your ally was just invaded by joint #NATO & #AlQaeda & friends taskforce

Mark Sleboda added,
TASS @tassagency_enMoscow deeply worried over events in area of Syrian-Turkish border http://tass.com/politics/895737

[Drew Phipps]

Where in Syria was that proposed pipeline going to run?

[Magda Hassan]

The arrogance of the US never fails to amaze me. Neither does does the naivety of Russia. As if they are ever going to get offered a seat at the table. Living in the past. This is not 1945.

[David Guyatt]

The US just sold out their Kurdish allies.

Biden told the YPG Kurds they "must" move back across the river, meaning the Euphrates, and that the US will not, "under any circumstances" support them otherwise. "Period".

It's interesting that, from a diplomatic perspective that Biden's arrival at the airport was an insult; he was met by the vice-governor of Ankara province. Not even the governor. Normally such an important statesman would have been either been met by Erdogan or his immediate deputy or another of equal rank to Biden. Ergo he wasn't received as the honoured guest western media is suggesting. There still appears to be considerable tension between the US and Turkey as a consequence of Washington's involvement in the recent failed coup.

Meanwhile, Operation Euphrates Shield commenced the day before Biden's arrival.

Importantly, the advance of Turkish forces into Syria seems also designed to seal the border and stop the flow of US sponsored weapons/supplies to ISIS (HERE).

Overall, this seems to be a US strategy designed to try to pull Turkey back into the NATO fold by sacrificing the (homeland need of) the Kurds - which has been Erdogan's demand all along.

My guess is that Erdogan's extradition request for Fethullah Gulen will now quietly cease altogether.

[Drew Phipps]

You would suppose that such a momentous event would see some play on MSM. Strangely, again, there is a studied nonchalance about Turkey. CBS did put up a story on their website. Again, the BBC "scoops" the US media.

[Magda Hassan]

The US just sold out their Kurdish allies.

Biden told the YPG Kurds they "must" move back across the river, meaning the Euphrates, and that the US will not, "under any circumstances" support them otherwise. "Period".

It's interesting that, from a diplomatic perspective that Biden's arrival at the airport was an insult; he was met by the vice-governor of Ankara province. Not even the governor. Normally such an important statesman would have been either been met by Erdogan or his immediate deputy or another of equal rank to Biden. Ergo he wasn't received as the honoured guest western media is suggesting. There still appears to be considerable tension between the US and Turkey as a consequence of Washington's involvement in the recent failed coup.

Meanwhile, Operation Euphrates Shield commenced the day before Biden's arrival.

Importantly, the advance of Turkish forces into Syria seems also designed to seal the border and stop the flow of US sponsored weapons/supplies to ISIS (HERE).

Overall, this seems to be a US strategy designed to try to pull Turkey back into the NATO fold by sacrificing the (homeland need of) the Kurds - which has been Erdogan's demand all along.

My guess is that Erdogan's extradition request for Fethullah Gulen will now quietly cease altogether.

Yes that is interesting. Not quite the right reception for Biden that would indicate a full embrace of this action. Ball now in Russia's court. Syria has already complained about this illegal action.

I see Turkey already had a fully fledged social media campaign ready to go for Operation Euphrates Shield. https://twitter.com/EuphratesShield

[David Guyatt]

The US just sold out their Kurdish allies.

Biden told the YPG Kurds they "must" move back across the river, meaning the Euphrates, and that the US will not, "under any circumstances" support them otherwise. "Period".

It's interesting that, from a diplomatic perspective that Biden's arrival at the airport was an insult; he was met by the vice-governor of Ankara province. Not even the governor. Normally such an important statesman would have been either been met by Erdogan or his immediate deputy or another of equal rank to Biden. Ergo he wasn't received as the honoured guest western media is suggesting. There still appears to be considerable tension between the US and Turkey as a consequence of Washington's involvement in the recent failed coup.

Meanwhile, Operation Euphrates Shield commenced the day before Biden's arrival.

Importantly, the advance of Turkish forces into Syria seems also designed to seal the border and stop the flow of US sponsored weapons/supplies to ISIS (HERE).

Overall, this seems to be a US strategy designed to try to pull Turkey back into the NATO fold by sacrificing the (homeland need of) the Kurds - which has been Erdogan's demand all along.

My guess is that Erdogan's extradition request for Fethullah Gulen will now quietly cease altogether.

Yes that is interesting. Not quite the right reception for Biden that would indicate a full embrace of this action. Ball now in Russia's court. Syria has already complained about this illegal action.

I see Turkey already had a fully fledged social media campaign ready to go for Operation Euphrates Shield. https://twitter.com/EuphratesShield

Yep, Euphrates Shield was going ahead with or without Biden's/Washington's approval.

That suggests to me that there was a degree of foreknowledge and agreement with Putin. But maybe I'm putting my own twist on it. Yet it would suit Russia to have Turkey intervene in the flow of weapons to ISIS and (say it ain't true?) FSA across the Turkish border.

Also, Drew's point about the lack of media reporting in the USA suggests that Washington is embarrassed and that this is not good news for them - and that Biden's TV appearance may be simply typical spin to cover a fait accompli. Time will tell.

Next stop is Putin's reaction, as you say.

[Drew Phipps]

I am beginning to think that this entire drama, beginning with the Turkish shootdown of the Russian jet, has been stage managed by the parties concerned, including Washington and Moscow, to justify a desired and previously-agreed-upon end; which is probably some sort of partition of Syria, with plenty of "face-saving" concessions to nations which may (or may not) have agreed to the plan.

At least I hope there is such a plan. The alternative seems to be far too brinksmanship-like for my taste.