30-11-2012, 10:58 PM
Funny stuff Greg... I've wanted to try stand-up too... but the "terrifying" has kept me away.... so Kudos for even trying.
Statistics versus Probability...
Stats can be made to distort the situation
Probability can't....
MOST people do not understand probability.... a lottery example:
"With all those people buying tickets, my chance of winning isn't as good"
Independent versus dependent events -
i.e. in this case - GIVEN that the first 3 items MATCH, what are the ODDS/probability that 3 more items WILL MATCH if we look at 10 more items?
What are the odds that any 10 items out of 50 will match with better than 95% certainty?
If the MATCHING was somehow quantifiable (two shirts, same setting, same camera, good detail, measureable) this becomes a 0% or 100% proposition...
It either does or does not match - in the REAL WORLD
When our friend JF says, "what are the chances these two would match in 50 areas on their own AND STILL BE DIFFERENT SHIRTS" we have a non-sequitur
(In a non sequitur, the conclusion could be either true or false, but the argument is fallacious because there is a disconnection between the premise and the conclusion.)
The SHIRTS THEMSELVES either are or are not the same shirt.... true or false.... same with the person...
there would be nothing subjective about it....
DJ
Statistics versus Probability...
Stats can be made to distort the situation
Probability can't....
MOST people do not understand probability.... a lottery example:
"With all those people buying tickets, my chance of winning isn't as good"
Independent versus dependent events -
i.e. in this case - GIVEN that the first 3 items MATCH, what are the ODDS/probability that 3 more items WILL MATCH if we look at 10 more items?
What are the odds that any 10 items out of 50 will match with better than 95% certainty?
If the MATCHING was somehow quantifiable (two shirts, same setting, same camera, good detail, measureable) this becomes a 0% or 100% proposition...
It either does or does not match - in the REAL WORLD
When our friend JF says, "what are the chances these two would match in 50 areas on their own AND STILL BE DIFFERENT SHIRTS" we have a non-sequitur
(In a non sequitur, the conclusion could be either true or false, but the argument is fallacious because there is a disconnection between the premise and the conclusion.)
The SHIRTS THEMSELVES either are or are not the same shirt.... true or false.... same with the person...
there would be nothing subjective about it....
DJ