Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Can't find diagram of shots to jfk from conspiracy point of view?
#91
Drew Phipps Wrote:a. I don't believe that disproving the audio analysis of the HSCA is the same as proving the Lone Nut theory. Just because a talking head says something on TV, doesn't make it so.

b. Meyers gives McClain 1/2 sec to travel 175 feet. Don Thomas (whose work published in Mary Ferrell you have liberally borrowed from) puts the time at 4 seconds, which requires HB McClain to accelerate to 30 mph for no apparent reason other than to position his microphone appropriately. Even giving your time frame its most liberal construction, giving McClain 7 seconds to cover the ground suggests a speed of 18 mph. The motorcade was making an average speed of 9-10 mph, sometimes slower as they rounded the completely-against-Secret-Service-policy sharp left turn at Elm. Now, both 30 and 18 mph are well within the capability of the motorcycle, but the question remains: Why on earth would Officer McClain abandon his post and move ahead of his assigned position prior to any shots being fired?

c. McClain, after listening to the recording, denied that it came from his position.

d. There are other noises on the audio inconsistent with the time frame of the assassination.

e. A statistical correlation doesn't prove a causation event (i.e. the relationship between gunshots and "sound impulse" on the audio tape.

From wiki:
"The cum hoc ergo propter hoc logical fallacy can be expressed as follows:

  1. A occurs in correlation with B.
  2. Therefore, A causes B.
In this type of logical fallacy, one makes a premature conclusion about causality after observing only a correlation between two or more factors. Generally, if one factor (A) is observed to only be correlated with another factor (B), it is sometimes taken for granted that A is causing B, even when no evidence supports it. This is a logical fallacy because there are at least five possibilities:

  1. A may be the cause of B.
  2. B may be the cause of A.
  3. some unknown third factor C may actually be the cause of both A and B.
  4. there may be a combination of the above three relationships. For example, B may be the cause of A at the same time as A is the cause of B (contradicting that the only relationship between A and B is that A causes B). This describes a self-reinforcing system.
  5. the "relationship" is a coincidence or so complex or indirect that it is more effectively called a coincidence (i.e. two events occurring at the same time that have no direct relationship to each other besides the fact that they are occurring at the same time). A larger sample size helps to reduce the chance of a coincidence, unless there is a systematic error in the experiment.
In other words, there can be no conclusion made regarding the existence or the direction of a cause-and-effect relationship only from the fact that A and B are correlated. Determining whether there is an actual cause-and-effect relationship requires further investigation, even when the relationship between A and B is statistically significant, a large effect size is observed, or a large part of the variance is explained."

(bold emphasis added)


Generally, if [B]one factor (A) is observed to only be correlated with another factor (B), it is sometimes taken for granted that A is causing B, even when no evidence supports it. This is a logical fallacy because there are at least five possibilities[/B]

IF the acoustical analysis is valid (in other words, the sounds of the shots were recorded on the Dallas Police radio recording):

1. The time between shots would be the same in both the Zapruder film and the acoustical recording.

[Image: attachment.php?attachmentid=6304&stc=1]

Shot #1 Z178 Rosemary Willis stops running less than one second after 1st shot from TSBD. Shot ricochet slightly wounded James Tague.

Shot #2 Z202 fired from left front. It passed through the windshield just to the left of the rear view mirror and hit JFK in the neck and exited near the base of his neck.

Shot #3 Z224 Second shot from TSBD. CE840 (three bullet fragments found under Nellie's seat) suggest the second shot fired from the TSBD hit a branch and fragmented. Witnesses about this time report seeing something hit the pavement. JFK had a back wound about 5.5 inches below his collar. It was stated during the autopsy that the back wound was shallow and it had no point of exit which is consistent with a bullet fragment, not a bullet. Dr. Shaw, one of Connally's doctors said the wound to his left thigh was caused by a bullet fragment, not a bullet.

Shot #4 was fired from the grassy knoll per the acoustical analysis. Per Secret Service agent Roy Kellerman's Warren Commission testimony, there was a small entrance wound in the hairline just forward of his right ear and a massive wound in the right rear of his head where the skull was blown out. Of significance, Roy Kellerman's description of the exit wound matches the descriptions given by medical personnel at Parkland Hospital. No witness at Parkland matches what the autopsy or the Zapruder film shows.

Shot #5 (shot #3 from TSBD) fired a split second after JFK's head shot missed JFK's head and hit John Connally in the back.

In other words the acoustical evidence bang-bang scenario is consistent with what we see in the Zapruder film AND what some witnesses tell us happened. We now know due to Doug Horne's work that the Zapruder film was forged on the Sunday after the assassination but it only hid some of the things the conspirators did not want us to see, it was hastily done.

2. John Connally's turn to look over his right shoulder after Z224: Connally said he heard what he thought was a shot and he turned toward it as we see from Z230-300.

3. John Connally said the force of the bullet to his back bent him over which is exactly what is seen a split second after JFK was shot in the head.

[Image: attachment.php?attachmentid=6305&stc=1]

Some have said Connally just fell over a split second after JFK was shot in the head but it is clear, Nellie Connally could not have thrown John Connally forward and then pulled him over. It looks like Connally's description was correct, the force of the bullet to his back bent him over.

4. John Connally has no blood on his shirt nor does he show any characteristics of a man who has a hole in his chest the size of a baseball after Z224. This suggests John Connally was right, he was not shot in the back until he was bent over.

5. The force of the bullet: The acoustical evidence gives "suggestion" of the timing of the shots and the origin of the shots. The bullet to JFK's head and the bullet to Connally's back knocked the men directly away from the gunman. You no longer have to listen to those who believe the Laws of Conservation of Momentum and Energy do not apply to Dealey Plaza.

6. The acoustical evidence shows the last two shots were bang-bang. If true, a significant number of people would have heard BANG-BANG; they did and Charnin fails to identify all of them who said that is what they heard. There are more people who said the last two shots were fired BANG-BANG.

http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014...een-shots/



And then there was BAM-BAM.

ETC. ETC. ETC.

The acoustical evidence with the last two shots fired BANG-BANG explains many of the mysteries of the JFK assassination. It suggests, for example, a powerful conspiracy in the US government forged evidence. How could it be possible that a reasonable scenario of BANG-BANG, JFK's head shot and then Connally's back is not published anywhere except by me?

The brainwashing of Americans has been much more effective than I would have ever believed. My job is to introduce some to the information needed to solve the case. You and others are not going to believe me, you have to prove it to yourself that there is sufficient information to prove that we were lied to about what happened when JFK was brutally murdered.


Attached Files
.jpg   Warren_Comm_Audio_5_annun-3.jpg (Size: 124.49 KB / Downloads: 48)
.jpg   Connallypanamora-vertical.jpg (Size: 18.41 KB / Downloads: 48)
Bill Charleston

All these years have gone by and it never occurred to me that Connally was shot after JFK's fatal head shot. Once you're walked through it, it's immediately evident that that's exactly what happened. It all fits! It's the ONLY thing that fit's. It's amazing work. You're the VERY first person to put this all together. Congrats!! Watching your video was like putting glasses on correctly after wearing them backwards for years without realizing it. A surprised viewer
Reply
#92
What level of experience and professionalism do you think the shooters involved possessed?
Mr. HILL. The right rear portion of his head was missing. It was lying in the rear seat of the car. His brain was exposed. There was blood and bits of brain all over the entire rear portion of the car. Mrs. Kennedy was completely covered with blood. There was so much blood you could not tell if there had been any other wound or not, except for the one large gaping wound in the right rear portion of the head.

Warren Commission testimony of Secret Service Agent Clinton J. Hill, 1964
Reply
#93
Quote:The brainwashing of Americans has been much more effective than I would have ever believed.



World War II created a massive industrial scale cooperaton in the war effort. CIA was created at the same time as this consolidation of people towards one military effort. The people in charge took advantage of combining industrial 'efficiency and productivity' with political expediency. The people got lazy and accepted the US media and government pre-chewing their media information. In the end the people turned out to be lazy philistines who understood the deal and simply sought the easiest path. It's a lot easier to accept the lies of a tyrannical government than suffer the discomfort of check and balance. It's important to understand that brainwashing is not the source of this as much as a corrupted people who are willing to sacrifice a few Kennedy's for their ease of comfort. America is like a sick movie set where the murderers are allowed to adjust the mirrors so Americans see a reflection of themselves that looks good.
Reply
#94
Albert Doyle Wrote:
Quote:The brainwashing of Americans has been much more effective than I would have ever believed.



World War II created a massive industrial scale cooperaton in the war effort. CIA was created at the same time as this consolidation of people towards one military effort. The people in charge took advantage of combining industrial 'efficiency and productivity' with political expediency. The people got lazy and accepted the US media and government pre-chewing their media information. In the end the people turned out to be lazy philistines who understood the deal and simply sought the easiest path. It's a lot easier to accept the lies of a tyrannical government than suffer the discomfort of check and balance. It's important to understand that brainwashing is not the source of this as much as a corrupted people who are willing to sacrifice a few Kennedy's for their ease of comfort. America is like a sick movie set where the murderers are allowed to adjust the mirrors so Americans see a reflection of themselves that looks good.

"I shouted out,
Who killed the Kennedys?
When after all
It was you and me..."

"Sympathy for the Devil" The Rolling Stones
Mr. HILL. The right rear portion of his head was missing. It was lying in the rear seat of the car. His brain was exposed. There was blood and bits of brain all over the entire rear portion of the car. Mrs. Kennedy was completely covered with blood. There was so much blood you could not tell if there had been any other wound or not, except for the one large gaping wound in the right rear portion of the head.

Warren Commission testimony of Secret Service Agent Clinton J. Hill, 1964
Reply
#95
William Charleston Wrote:How could it be possible that a reasonable scenario of BANG-BANG, JFK's head shot and then Connally's back is not published anywhere except by me?

I'm not arguing that your scenario is unreasonable. I'm arguing that the acoustic evidence isn't taken seriously by researchers for the very good reasons cited above. In addition, I'm (as of about a week ago) no longer willing to believe that the Zapruder film is necesarily an accurate recording of the assassination (there are other recent threads concerning this issue on this forum). Since your work involves comparing the acoustic evidence, to the Zapruder film, you are depending on the validity of them both.

What's left is comparing witness recollections, common sense, and the physics of momentum.
"All that is necessary for tyranny to succeed is for good men to do nothing." (unknown)

James Tracy: "There is sometimes an undue amount of paranoia among some conspiracy researchers that can contribute to flawed observations and analysis."

Gary Cornwell (Dept. Chief Counsel HSCA): "A fact merely marks the point at which we have agreed to let investigation cease."

Alan Ford: "Just because you believe it, that doesn't make it so."
Reply
#96
Drew Phipps Wrote:
William Charleston Wrote:How could it be possible that a reasonable scenario of BANG-BANG, JFK's head shot and then Connally's back is not published anywhere except by me?

I'm not arguing that your scenario is unreasonable. I'm arguing that the acoustic evidence isn't taken seriously by researchers for the very good reasons cited above. In addition, I'm (as of about a week ago) no longer willing to believe that the Zapruder film is necesarily an accurate recording of the assassination (there are other recent threads concerning this issue on this forum). Since your work involves comparing the acoustic evidence, to the Zapruder film, you are depending on the validity of them both.

What's left is comparing witness recollections, common sense, and the physics of momentum.

If the acoustical evidence is not valid, then how did the acoustical experts identify shots that correspond almost exactly (within 0.1 second resolution) to the Zapruder film? For it to be invalid,

1. the acoustical experts would have to have been extremely lucky to have showed there was 4.8 seconds between two of the shots which corresponds with the shots at Z224 and Z313.

2. The acoustical experts would have had to have just been incredibly lucky again to show the last two shots were BANG-BANG (0.7 seconds apart) exactly like over 30 witnesses said happened (after the government said those sounds were echoes the press then ignored the dozens of witnesses who said BANG-BANG). WHY did only the last shot echo and not earlier shots? Easily answered when you look at the acoustical evidence.

3. The acoustical experts were lucky again when they showed the last shot was fired EXACTLY like John Connally said that he was bent over by the force of the bullet hitting him in his back.

4. the acoustical experts would have had to have been lucky again to have shown the last three shots were fired in this order (direction matches the film again):
Z224 from behind from TSBD
Z313 from the grassy knoll that knocked JFK back directly away from the gunman on the grassy knoll
Z325 The shot missed JFK's head and hit Connally in the back, driving him forward

5. With the last three shots aligned to the Zapruder film AND the corresponding wounds identified, it is not possible those three shots caused all of the wounds and damage seen during the shooting. The acoustical experts would have had to have been extremely lucky again to have shown there were two shots fired before Z224 that allow reasonable explanations consistent with what many witnesses say happened.

6. The latest acoustical analysis shows that there were THREE shots fired from the TSBD corresponding with witnesses who were in the TSBD who clearly heard three shots from that location. Were they lucky again to get this right too?

ETC.

Do you think the HSCA acoustical experts guessed 4.8 seconds and 0.7 seconds for shot spacing that matches the Z film? NOTE: The Zapruder forgery changed what you see, it did not significantly change the timing of the events.

You may never believe that the timing of the acoustical evidence with the Zapruder film proves that a powerful conspiracy killed JFK but eventually many will because it makes sense where the other guesses (and lies) fall far short of being reasonable.

I keep plugging away presenting what I am positive is correct because every once in a while, someone gets it!

.......I stumbled across your video. Bingo! All these years have gone by and it never occurred to me that Connally was shot after JFK's fatal head shot. Once you're walked through it, it's immediately evident that that's exactly what happened. It all fits! It's the ONLY thing that fit's.It's amazing work. You're the VERY first person to put this all together. Congrats!! Watching your video was like putting glasses on correctly after wearing them backwards for years without realizing it. Everything immediately became clear!! THANK-YOU for your great work and for posting your video online. Please keep spreading the word about it and continuing your work!


Not one of the researchers who you apparently listen to realizes that the timing of the Zapruder film and the acoustical evidence matches when you correct for mistakes made by the HSCA. If you use Bugliosi's RECLAIMING HISTORY or any other book, you will not get the timing right. The HSCA concluded there were four shots but I have been showing there was an additional shot. The HSCA would have gotten the right answer eventually because the first shooting experiment was done with the test microphones very far apart which gave weak correlation to the actual recording. When the microphones would have been bunched up closer for the next shooting experiment, the matches would have been much closer and the conclusions would have been much stronger statistically. But the US government did not let the next shooting experiment happen, they said they ran out of money! What that means is they couldn't let the acoutical experts do the second shooting experiment because that would have removed all doubt. They decided it's better that you keep guessing rather than letting the public know for sure who was behind the brutal murder of JFK.

[Image: attachment.php?attachmentid=6309&stc=1]
Shots #1, 3 and 5: Fired from TSBD

Shot #1 Z178 slightly wounded James Tague
Shot #2 Z202 Fired a split second before JFK disappears behind sign, JFK can be seen reacting before Connally reacts to Z224 shot
Shot #3 Z224 One of the fired shots from TSBD could not be metal jacket bullet due to Parkland Hospital CE399 plant. It fragemented when it hit a branch, caused a wound to JFK's back 5.5 inches below his collar (during autopsy, it was said shallow wound, no point of exit), another fragment hit Connally's left thigh, other fragments hit street (several witnesses independtly saw something hit the street), CE840: Three bullet fragments found under Nellie's seat near John Connally's left thigh

Shot #4: Z313 Per Roy Kellerman, he saw a small wound just forward of JFK's right ear in the hairline about the size of the end of his small finger and he identified a massive exit wound in the right rear of JFK's head EXACTLY like the Parkland doctors say they saw.

Shot #5: Z325 3rd shot from TSBD missed JFK's head and hit Connally in the back bending him over. The bullet exited his chest and hit the top of his wrist. As identified earlier in this thread, the bullet hit the TOP of Connally's wrist which means he could not have been wounded until after Z313 when his right wrist was again in front of his body as seen from the TSBD. Before Z313, Connally's palm was turned toward his chest or was outside of his body as seen from the TSBD.




Attached Files
.jpg   Warren_Comm_Audio_5_annun-1.jpg (Size: 125.39 KB / Downloads: 24)
Bill Charleston

All these years have gone by and it never occurred to me that Connally was shot after JFK's fatal head shot. Once you're walked through it, it's immediately evident that that's exactly what happened. It all fits! It's the ONLY thing that fit's. It's amazing work. You're the VERY first person to put this all together. Congrats!! Watching your video was like putting glasses on correctly after wearing them backwards for years without realizing it. A surprised viewer
Reply
#97
If you look at the rising moon, you can see what appears to be a face. If you look at the setting moon, you'll see what appears to be a rabbit. In reality, there are neither faces nor rabbits on the Moon. It's called pareidolia, which is seeing patterns in random data.

If you stare at random data long enough, hoping to find some specific pattern, you will.
"All that is necessary for tyranny to succeed is for good men to do nothing." (unknown)

James Tracy: "There is sometimes an undue amount of paranoia among some conspiracy researchers that can contribute to flawed observations and analysis."

Gary Cornwell (Dept. Chief Counsel HSCA): "A fact merely marks the point at which we have agreed to let investigation cease."

Alan Ford: "Just because you believe it, that doesn't make it so."
Reply
#98
You asked "how?", and you deserve a better answer than me just suggesting that the acoustical experts were just jumping at concluions. Here's a scenario that explains a "how". The Zapruder film was not displayed to the public for 13 years (1977) until Geraldo Rivera aired it. In addition, the dictabelt recording was preserved by the Dallas PD until 1978. If I was a smart guy determined to mislead the American public about the truth behind the assassination, and I had 13 years to work on the evidence, I'd make darn sure that this particular rabbit trail looked convincing.
"All that is necessary for tyranny to succeed is for good men to do nothing." (unknown)

James Tracy: "There is sometimes an undue amount of paranoia among some conspiracy researchers that can contribute to flawed observations and analysis."

Gary Cornwell (Dept. Chief Counsel HSCA): "A fact merely marks the point at which we have agreed to let investigation cease."

Alan Ford: "Just because you believe it, that doesn't make it so."
Reply
#99
Albert Doyle Wrote:
Quote:The brainwashing of Americans has been much more effective than I would have ever believed.



World War II created a massive industrial scale cooperaton in the war effort. CIA was created at the same time as this consolidation of people towards one military effort. The people in charge took advantage of combining industrial 'efficiency and productivity' with political expediency. The people got lazy and accepted the US media and government pre-chewing their media information. In the end the people turned out to be lazy philistines who understood the deal and simply sought the easiest path. It's a lot easier to accept the lies of a tyrannical government than suffer the discomfort of check and balance. It's important to understand that brainwashing is not the source of this as much as a corrupted people who are willing to sacrifice a few Kennedy's for their ease of comfort. America is like a sick movie set where the murderers are allowed to adjust the mirrors so Americans see a reflection of themselves that looks good.

The media people that I call presstitutes think it is their job to explain to the little people in America why the US government got it right. The presstitutes do not seriously investigate nor critique the US government's positions on much of anything.

Take for example Parkland Hospital. Almost any JFK fan has heard someone say that not a single doctor at Parkland Hospital recognizes the autopsy photographs (or Zapruder film head wounds) as representative of what they saw. NONE, not a single one. How is that possible?

As pointed out on this thread previously, Secret Service agent Roy Kellerman described a small entrance wound in the hairline just forward of JFK's right ear about the size of the end of his finger and an exit wound in the right rear of JFK's head about 5 inches in diameter with the bone (skull) "removed."

From post 92 that I had never seen before:
Mr. HILL. The right rear portion of his head was missing. It was lying in the rear seat of the car. His brain was exposed. There was blood and bits of brain all over the entire rear portion of the car. Mrs. Kennedy was completely covered with blood. There was so much blood you could not tell if there had been any other wound or not, except for the one large gaping wound in the right rear portion of the head.

Warren Commission testimony of Secret Service Agent Clinton J. Hill, 1964

[Image: attachment.php?attachmentid=6314&stc=1]

This drawing of the rear of JFK's head was made for a PBS NOVA 1988 25th anniversary show. They took several doctors who saw JFK's head at Parkland to Washington to review the autopsy photographs for the first time. Each doctor was interviewed before and after they viewed the autopsy photographs. Dr McClellan drew the picture above as representative of what he remembered seeing which matches the description given by Secret Service Agents Clint Hill and Roy Kellerman. (After viewing the autopsy photographs, each doctor was obviously shaken by what they saw. McClellan for example tried to explain the autopsy photographs as a flap of skin was pulled down over the wound in the right posterior. McClellan would never say that the autopsy photos were forged. The PBS show can be found on YOUTUBE).

What is the probability that Clint Hill, Roy Kellerman and the doctors at Parkland would all INDEPENDENTLY describe a wound about 5 inches across in the right rear of JFK's if it was not there? The answer is ZERO, it is not a reasonable possibility. The witnesses might get some details wrong but they would NOT all describe a massive wound in the right rear of JFK's head unless that is what they actually saw.

But the autopsy photographs do NOT show anything like this, how is this possible? On any TV documentary, it's time to start playing mystery UFO music. The presstitutes assume that there must be a reasonable explanation and they assume anything except the most obvious solution: The autopsy photographs are forged and US government officials are the only possible suspects!

[Image: attachment.php?attachmentid=6315&stc=1]

Who had the power to collect all of the evidence and assemble it all under one control?

Who had the power to stop other investigations so they could make sure only the right answers were given and only the right witnesses were interviewed?

Who had the power and knowledge to set up a murder scene that showed one shooter fired three shots and stick to that lie no matter what the evidence showed or those pesky witnesses said?

Who had the power to control and corrupt the investigation?

Who had the power to control what the presstitutes reported and said?

ETC.

The JFK assassination can be solved rather easily if you just hypothesize the obvious: The US government was controlled and manipulated by powerful conspirators who had the power to do whatever needed to be done to pull this off. The apparatus of the government was manipulated as needed to protect the "secrets" needed to tell this lie. The presstitutes will never tell the truth, they can't just like the US government can't tell the truth. The lies were so big and so ridiculous that even today, they cannot be discussed. And the average person will never believe that it happened in our country. So they don't believe anything except what they are told to believe.

Why is this important today? A corrupt government that can pull this off has the tools in place to tell other lies as they deem necessary. In other words, all Americans must know we were lied to and who was behind the JFK murder because a free society cannot exist if the government can succeed in hiding the truth. Americans assume the presstitutes keep the government straight and tell us the truth but actually, nothing could be further from the truth.


Attached Files
.gif   head2.gif (Size: 4.79 KB / Downloads: 18)
.jpg   autopclr4.jpg (Size: 18.55 KB / Downloads: 18)
Bill Charleston

All these years have gone by and it never occurred to me that Connally was shot after JFK's fatal head shot. Once you're walked through it, it's immediately evident that that's exactly what happened. It all fits! It's the ONLY thing that fit's. It's amazing work. You're the VERY first person to put this all together. Congrats!! Watching your video was like putting glasses on correctly after wearing them backwards for years without realizing it. A surprised viewer
Reply
How about this? Connolly was shot more than once? There were 5 wounds.
Reply


Possibly Related Threads…
Thread Author Replies Views Last Post
  New Alt.Conspiracy.JFK Google Group Brian Doyle 0 494 21-11-2023, 04:47 PM
Last Post: Brian Doyle
  Thomas Kelley reports Oswald said he did not view parade Richard Gilbride 1 647 26-09-2023, 04:31 PM
Last Post: Brian Doyle
  DiEugenio Betrays Conspiracy Research Brian Doyle 1 747 07-07-2023, 04:32 PM
Last Post: Brian Doyle
  The Conspiracy to Kill Lee Harvey Oswald --- Conclusion Gil Jesus 1 925 01-04-2023, 04:23 PM
Last Post: Brian Doyle
  The Conspiracy to Kill Lee Harvey Oswald --- Part IV Gil Jesus 0 691 26-03-2023, 02:10 PM
Last Post: Gil Jesus
  The Conspiracy to Kill Lee Harvey Oswald --- Part III Gil Jesus 0 741 15-03-2023, 11:34 AM
Last Post: Gil Jesus
  The Conspiracy to Kill Lee Harvey Oswald Pt. 1 & 2 Gil Jesus 0 688 08-03-2023, 01:28 PM
Last Post: Gil Jesus
  JFK Conspiracy for Younger Generations Cliff Varnell 1 2,906 02-06-2019, 11:17 AM
Last Post: Cliff Varnell
  JFK and Far Right Conspiracy Rhetoric Jim DiEugenio 4 9,360 02-01-2019, 06:14 AM
Last Post: Scott Kaiser
  rootclaim - Estimating the Probability of Conspiracy vs. LHO Acted Alone Bill Fite 11 10,530 29-04-2018, 05:08 PM
Last Post: Phil Dagosto

Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)